中东剧变与阿拉伯世界的未来

当前中东正经历的历史性剧变,不仅引发阿拉伯世界的集体大动荡,而且严重冲击地区政治、安全和地缘政治关系,也对大国的中东政策构成重大挑战。未来中东局势改革已势在必行;伊斯兰政治力量将增大,阿拉伯世界长期陷入内乱,伊朗、土耳其将谋求发挥更大地区影响力;美国全球战略与中东政策面临多重结构性挑战;欧盟在外交、能源、安全、移民等方面遭遇前所未有的压力;国际原油市场受冲击从而影响全球经济复苏。     

Incorporating index offence analysis into forensic clinical assessment

Purpose. Assessment is a core skill of clinical and forensic psychology practice and forms the basis of all ongoing engagements with offender/patients. In forensic settings, assessment involves the systematic gathering of reliable data on the characteristics of offenders and the offences which they have committed in order to develop understanding of the dynamics of offending and relevant intervention strategies. However, whilst the assessment process is aided by various protocols, no such instrument appears to exist for the assessment of an offender/patient's index offence. This paper presents a draft ‘index offence analysis guide’ designed by the present authors for this purpose and which has been piloted on prisoners and patients in secure settings. Argument. Evidence suggests that for various reasons, many clinicians do not routinely review crime scene data while working with offenders. However, this practice is arguably questionable, because how can decisions about admission, amenability to treatment, risk of reoffending, and discharge be made if there is limited awareness of what the offender/patient has done? The present authors argue that knowledge of the index offence is important to understanding the offender and suggest this can be obtained using a guide such as the one presented here. This is illustrated with an anonymous case. Conclusion. Index offence analysis should be a core task of any forensic clinician engaged in the assessment of offender/patients as it can provide a better understanding of crime scene actions and offence motivations. This can help guide treatment planning and improve risk assessments.     

Gender differences in the evaluation of aggravating and mitigating circumstances: the mediating role of attributional complexity*

At the penalty phase of a capital trial, jurors endorse and weigh aggravators and mitigators. The purpose of the current studies was to examine how gender differences in attributional complexity relate to endorsements of aggravators and mitigators. In Study 1, undergraduate participants read definitions of aggravators and mitigators and rated the extent to which circumstances were aggravating or mitigating. In Study 2, a death qualified community sample read a trial summary, rated the extent to which aggravators and mitigators were present in the case, reported whether mitigators outweighed aggravators, and rendered a sentence. Results indicated that gender differences in mitigator endorsement were mediated by attributional complexity, and that gender differences in sentencing decisions were serially mediated by attributional complexity, mitigator endorsement, and aggravator and mitigator weighing.     

When Free Traders Become Protectionists: Constituent Advocacy at the International Trade Commission

Although Members of Congress vote on few trade bills, they participate regularly in venues such as the International Trade Commission (ITC), where important trade policy decisions are made. We assert that once removed from the voting chambers of Congress, legislators are motivated overwhelmingly by the desire to advance constituents’ trade policy interests, even those that contradict the member’s established positions on trade. Utilizing an original dataset on legislator participation in antidumping cases, we find that both Democratic and Republican members advocate protection at the ITC when they have numerous firms and constituents in their district who benefit from trade restrictions, particularly when they receive sizeable financial contributions from them. Notably, self‐proclaimed free‐traders are just as likely to seek protection for their constituents as are trade opponents. Away from Capitol Hill, then, trade policymaking exhibits few partisan and ideological influences and serves as a means for members to expand political support. [Correction added on 21 August 2018, after first online publication: Abstract was added to article]     

Procedural justice policing and citizen compliance behaviour: the importance of emotion

Research consistently finds that if authorities use procedural justice in encounters with the public then this will promote citizen cooperation and compliance with the law. Recently, the importance of people's emotional reactions in response to procedural justice and injustice, and the subsequent effect this has on behaviour have been examined. This paper utilises a multi-method approach to examine the mediating role that negative affect plays in the effect of procedural justice policing on citizen compliance behaviour. Study 1 utilises both cross-sectional and longitudinal field survey data collected from Australian citizens who have had a recent contact with a police officer. Study 2 utilises an experimental vignette study designed to assess the causal mechanisms involved in the procedural justice–emotion–compliance relationship. Both studies find that procedural justice is linked to people's self-reported propensity to comply with police. Study 1 and 2 also find that negative affect mediates this relationship. These findings have important implications for training police to interact with the public in a manner that reduces negative emotions and ensures the highest level of compliance from the public.     

A study of stranger rapists from the English high security hospitals

Abstract

Heterogeneity hinders our understanding of sexual violence; but does this problem extend to stranger rape and, if so, would the construction of homogeneous subtypes advance our understanding of this crime and aid criminal investigations and clinical practice? To answer these questions, 41 stranger rapists from the English high security hospitals were examined using version 3 of the Massachusetts Treatment Centre rapist typology (MTC:R3) and multidimensional scaling (MDS). The MTC:R3 suggested that sexual desire and opportunism were the primary motivations for these men, but that proportionately more psychopaths were violent and sadistic. In accordance with previous research, the men experienced problematic childhoods and displayed high rates of criminality and psychiatric morbidity in adulthood. However, MDS found that rapist histories and offence behaviours generally divide into sexual and violent themes. These results have important implications for theory, criminal investigations and clinical practice.     

(Neo-)extractivism – a new challenge for development theory from Latin America

This paper addresses new challenges and identifies starting points for development theory following recent debates in Latin America on ‘new or neo-extractivism’. It focuses on the concept of neo-extractivism and the context of its emergence, and on the changing role of the state. Looking at a number of social economic indicators, we find that, even after considering differences between countries, (neo-)extractivism is not merely a temporary economic strategy in the region. Instead, it exhibits features of a consolidated development project. Empirical evidence from the region shows the fundamental implications of resource-based development paths in politics, social relations and territorial orders. To grasp these implications conceptually, we argue for a shift in theoretical perspectives related to the link between development and resource extraction. Key elements for such a shift are to be found in recent studies in rentier theory and politics and new approaches in the field of political ecology.     

Power groups,interests and interest groups in consolidated and transitional democracies: comparing Uruguay and Costa Rica with Paraguay and Haiti

Drawing on a representative sample of four countries, this article compares two related aspects of interest group activity across Latin America. First, it identifies the elements that determine the level of interest group system development and types of group activity across the region; and second it provides insights into the relationship of the level of institutionalization of a group system to the extent of the consolidation of democracy. The representative sample is composed of Uruguay and Costa Rica in comparison with Paraguay and Haiti. These are four countries with small populations that cover the spectrum of levels of socioeconomic and political development across Latin America, from Uruguay, one of the most developed, to Haiti one of the least developed. The article argues that across a spectrum of group development in Latin America, advanced systems have more or less integrated characteristics, whereas less developed ones manifest a dual or bifurcated group activity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stable Isotope Ratios of Marijuana. I. Carbon and Nitrogen Stable Isotopes Describe Growth Conditions*

Abstract: There remains significant uncertainty in illicit marijuana cultivation. We analyzed the δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N of 508 domestic samples from known U.S.A. counties, 31 seized from a single location, 5 samples grown in Mexico and Colombia, and 10 northwest border seizures. For a subset, inflorescences and leaves were analyzed separately. These data revealed a strong correspondence, with inflorescences having slightly higher δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values than leaves. A framework for interpreting these results is introduced and evaluated. Samples identified as outdoor‐grown by δ¹³C were generally recorded as such by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). DEA‐classified indoor‐grown samples had the most negative δ¹³C values, consistent with indoor cultivation, although many were also in the outdoor‐grown domain. δ¹⁵N indicated a wide range of fertilizers across the dataset. Samples seized at the single location suggested multiple sources. Northwest border δ¹³C values suggested indoor growth, whereas for the Mexican and Colombian samples they indicated outdoor growth.