A Robust Approach to Automatically Locating Grooves in 3D Bullet Land Scans

Land engraved areas (LEAs) provide evidence to address the same source–different source problem in forensic firearms examination. Collecting 3D images of bullet LEAs requires capturing portions of the neighboring groove engraved areas (GEAs). Analyzing LEA and GEA data separately is imperative to accuracy in automated comparison methods such as the one developed by Hare et al. (Ann Appl Stat 2017;11, 2332). Existing standard statistical modeling techniques often fail to adequately separate LEA and GEA data due to the atypical structure of 3D bullet data. We developed a method for automated removal of GEA data based on robust locally weighted regression (LOESS). This automated method was tested on high-resolution 3D scans of LEAs from two bullet test sets with a total of 622 LEA scans. Our robust LOESS method outperforms a previously proposed “rollapply” method. We conclude that our method is a major improvement upon rollapply, but that further validation needs to be conducted before the method can be applied in a fully automated fashion.     

Managing life cycle demands through a leadership agenda

This article stresses that leaders can prepare their organizations to manage successfully life cycle demands by systematically developing administrative responses to life cycle demands. To this end, organizations are prepared to cope when leaders develop agendas that systematically manage chance. In this process change is anticipated, information is collected, and organizations are positioned to satisfy life cycle demands. It is our view that successfully managing life cycle demands enhances organizational survival. Further, most discussions of organization life cycle theory concentrate on the private sector. We develop a leadership agenda model with applicability to the public sector. The model is applied by examining the life cycle experiences of the Municipality of Metropolitan Seattle (Metro). Applying the leadership agenda model to Metro provides a longitudinal analysis of how life cycle demands emerge, re-emerge, and are satisfied. We argue that Metro's leaders were able to anticipate or respond to life cycle demands, collect information, and change their organization to cope with life cycle demands. Therefore, leadership agendas were used to minimize systematically the impact of chance on Metro's development.     

Tackling Drugs Together: The Possibilities for a Confidential Drug Service

This article explores the exchange of personal information between agencies working with drug users and the 'problems' created by confidentiality. Confidentiality may be conceptualised as a form of information privacy, which in turn derives from a wider idea of privacy. The authors take as a case study the 'Wintercomfort Case', concerning a day centre for drug users in Cambridge. The focus is to look at the legal and practice implications of the case, and to examine in particular the tensions that exist between welfare and justice agencies who may have access to the same information, but who may also have different agendas and objectives in taking action.     

Theory vs reality: partisanship and Northern Ireland's Public Accounts Committee 2011–2016

Public accounts committees (PACs) are tasked with scrutinising executive use of public money, undertaking inquiries with the support of the legislative auditor. Through several means, an expectation is placed on members to be politically neutral in undertaking committee work. However, in the context of Northern Ireland, where consociationalism entrenches binary ethno-national identities throughout the political institutions, it would be expected that party-political interests would prevail and fracture the committee. This paper analyses Northern Ireland's PAC from three perspectives alongside qualitative data from interviews with committee members: theory, party-partisanship and changes in the committee's working relationship with the legislative auditor. It is argued that over the 2011–2016 mandate, this PAC coalesced and functioned well as a unit despite expectation to the contrary, and that the changing dynamics of its working relationship with the Northern Ireland Audit Office over this time are testament to its development in this way.     

Forecasting presidential elections: A comparison of naive models

Our primary aim is to forecast, rather than explain, presidential election results, using aggregate time series data from the post-World War II period. More particularly, we seek prediction of the presidential winner well before the election actually occurs. After comparing the performance of several naive blvariate models based on economic performance, international involvement, political experience, and presidential popularity, we go on to formulate a multivariate model. This economy-popularity regression model rather accurately forecasts the winner 6 months in advance of the election, by employing spring measures of presidential popularity and the growth rate in real GNP per capita. Furthermore, the model's performance, both ex post facto and prior to the election, compares favorably with the Gallup final preelection poll taken only a few days before the election.