The role of intelligence in deciding the Battle of Britain

The contemporary political climate is virtually demanding significant intelligence reforms based on what are seen as poor performances in recent crises. Many of these demands will ask for new agencies, more money, and more personnel. Such actions could well worsen the US intelligence process rather than strengthen it. However, now is a propitious time to make certain internal reforms and to find a way for the Intelligence Community to be truly integrated.     

Behavioral Cues to Deception vs. Topic Incriminating Potential in Criminal Confessions

Coding statements of criminal suspects facilitated tests of four hypotheses about differences between behavioral cues to deception and the incriminating potential (IP) of the topic. Information from criminal investigations corroborated the veracity of 337 brief utterances from 28 videotaped confessions. A four-point rating of topic IP measured the degree of potential threat per utterance. Cues discriminating true vs. false comprised word/phrase repeats, speech disfluency spikes, nonverbal overdone, and protracted headshaking. Non-lexical sounds discriminated true vs. false inthe reverse direction. Cues that distinguished IP only comprised speech speed, gesticulation amount, nonverbal animation level, soft weak vocal and “I (or we) just” qualifier. Adding “I don't know” to an answer discriminated both IP and true vs. false. The results supported hypothesis about differentiating deception cues from incriminating potential cues in high-stakes interviews, and suggested that extensive research on distinctions between stress-related cues and cues to deception would improve deception detection.     

Negative Life Events and Depressive Symptoms in Late Adolescence: Bonding and Cognitive Coping as Vulnerability Factors?

The objective of the present study was to examine the effects of parental bonding and cognitive coping in the relationship between negative life events and depressive symptoms in adolescence. A sample of 1310 adolescents attending an intermediate vocational education school filled out a questionnaire. Adolescents with a poor parental bonding relationship seemed to be more vulnerable to depressive symptoms in the face of adverse life events than adolescents with more optimal bonding styles. Cognitive coping strategies seemed to play an even more important role. The use of self-blame, rumination, catastrophizing, positive refocusing, and positive reappraisal appeared to be related to depressive symptoms. In addition, self-blame, rumination, and positive reappraisal seemed to have a moderating role in the relationship between the amount of stress experienced and depressive symptoms. Developing prevention and intervention programs aimed at the formation of optimal bonding relationships and teaching adolescents adaptive cognitive coping strategies seems advisable.     

Policies and Developments Relating to the Sexual Exploitation of Children: The Legacy of the Stockholm Conference

This article begins by noting the huge amount of attention that is now being paid at almost every level – international, European, national and by independent organisations and NGOs – to the growing problem of international child sexual exploitation and considers why this is the case. It then comments briefly on what we mean by international sexual exploitation, noting that different definitions are used. The main part of the article reviews developments in this field, beginning with the main international measure: the 1989 UN Convention on the Rights of the Child and then goes on to review the 1996 First World Congress Against Commercial Sexual Exploitation (the Stockholm Congress). After that some key measures subsequently adopted at international and national level, as well as by the European Union (which is increasingly taking international child sexual exploitation within its remit) are outlined. Lastly, some final thoughts are set out in the conclusion.     

Socially desirable responding and psychometric assessment of dynamic risk in sexual offenders against children

Does socially desirable responding (SDR) represent a threat to the validity of dynamic risk assessment in sex offenders’ self-reports? We studied a sample of men (N?=?218) who completed a psychometric assessment battery while enrolled at Kia Marama, a prison-based treatment program for sexual offenders against children. SDR, as measured by the Marlowe-Crowne scale, was elevated compared to non-offender samples, increased from pre- to post-treatment, and was negatively correlated with dynamic risk (rs?=??.30 to ?.40), consistent with previous research. Measures of dynamic risk factors derived from the psychometric battery were correlated with sexual recidivism, but correlations were little changed when variance associated with SDR was removed using a regression procedure [Mills, J. F., &; Kroner, D. G. (2006). Impression management and self-report among violent offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 21(2), 178–192.]. These results suggest that there is a substantial component of the variance in psychometric self-reports of sexual offenders that is associated with SDR (approximately 10%), but that it does not compromise the predictive or construct validity of dynamic risk measures derived from these reports.     

Can Beijing Buy Taiwan? An empirical assessment of Beijing’s agricultural trade concessions to Taiwan

In the mid-2000s, Beijing made a series of unilateral trade concessions with respect to agricultural trade with Taiwan. This move distressed the then incumbent party of the Republic of China, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), because Beijing’s offers might weaken the DPP’s rural support. This article offers the first empirical assessment of Beijing’s trade concessions. Using an original and highly disaggregate dataset at the township-product level, it examines what types of regions were more likely to be the beneficiary of the trade concessions, whether the concessions caused any production change, and the extent to which these changes undermined the DPP’s electoral support. It is found that while the benefit of tariff concession was not confined to pro-DPP regions, the townships that grew tariff-reduced products were no less likely to vote for the DPP. The result suggests a limit of Beijing’s economic enticement.     

A closer look at adolescent sexual activity

This study of 1228 parochial students in the eastern United States answered questions about adolescent sexuality. Few of the students surveyed claimed that sex was forced or even pressured. Over half of the students reported going steady as their relationship status when experiencing their first intercourse. Another fourth reported that they were dating or knew each other well. Approximately one-fifth of the students reported that drugs or alcohol was used at the time of first sex and three-fourths of them had first sex at either their own home or a friend's home. Nearly half of the students wished they had waited longer before having sex, especially the females and the more religious students. One-half of the nonvirgin students in the sample reported having had only one sexual partner. The implications of this information for setting social policy, designing and implementing effective sex education programs are discussed.Received Ph.D. in family studies/family science, Brigham Young University in 1994. Research and writing interests include adolescent sexuality and related problems, character education, and parenting.serving a sabbatical at BUY—Hawaii currently. Received Ph.D. in psychology at Michigan State in 1966. Research interests concern gender issues, parenting, and adolescent problems.In 1978 received Ph.D. in social psychology from the University of Washington. Research interests include adolescent problems and social policy.     

Assessing the Use of Profiling in Searches by Law Enforcement Personnel

This article considers statistical means of evaluating profiling in searches of individuals by law enforcement agencies. It reviews examples of inappropriate methods that have been used to date. A relatively recent, more appropriate, and simple method is elaborated and its usefulness documented with data from Maryland State Police highway stops and searches. The method evaluates profiling for specified groups of interest by comparing the relative magnitudes of contraband find rates among those stopped and searched of each group. When find rates are approximately the same across groups, then profiling used in making the stops and searches is deemed effective and nondiscriminatory. With an increasing number of jurisdictions mandated to collect data on stops and searches, it is important that appropriate methods be used in their analyses so correct public policy conclusions can be drawn.