Intelligence Failures: What Are They Really and What Do We Do about Them?

Intelligence failures occur for more reasons than just sloppy tradecraft and are often attributable to decision-makers as well as to the intelligence community. Before exploring the subjective nature of intelligence failures, this article first discusses three foundational concepts underlying them: process vs. product, fact vs. judgment, and prediction. It then outlines major components of intelligence failures: accuracy, surprise, and the role of decision-makers, particularly unrealistic expectations and the use or non-use of intelligence. The article concludes with a discussion of what the intelligence community and decision-makers can do to deal with these three components.     

Reducing crime by remediating vacant lots: the moderating effect of nearby land uses

Journal of Experimental Criminology - Place-based blight remediation programs have gained popularity in recent years as a crime reduction approach. This study estimated the impact of a citywide...     

A pharmacokinetic study of ethyl glucuronide in blood and urine: applications to forensic toxicology

This pharmacokinetic study investigated the kinetics of ethanol and its metabolite ethyl glucuronide (EtG) in blood and urine during the whole time course of absorption and elimination. There are few previous studies on the kinetics of EtG in blood, and we wanted to evaluate whether such knowledge could yield valuable information regarding the time of ethanol ingestion in forensic cases, such as, for instance, drunk driving. Ten male volunteers consumed ethanol at a fixed dose of 0.5 g/kg body weight in a fasted state. Blood samples were collected for 14 h and urine samples were collected for 45-50 h after the start of drinking. EtG reached its maximum concentration (C(max)) in blood after a median of 4 h (range 3.5-5), a median of 3 h (range 2-4.5) after C(max) for ethanol. The ethanol-to-EtG ratios in blood (ethanol in g/L, EtG in mg/L) were >1 only for the first median 3.5 h (range 2.5-3.5) after drinking. EtG elimination occurred with a median half-life of 2.2 h (range 1.7-3.1 h), and the renal clearance was 8.32 L/h (median, range 5.25-20.86). The concentrations of EtG were always much higher in urine than in blood. The total amount of EtG excreted in the urine was median 30 mg (range 21.5-39.7), representing 0.017% (median, range 0.013-0.022) of the ethanol given, on a molar basis. The information from the present study may be a valuable supplement to determine the time of ethanol ingestion. For this purpose, two subsequent increasing EtG values and a high ethanol-to-EtG ratio in blood would support information of recent drinking.     

Foreign Direct Investment and economic transition: Panacea or pain killer?

This article sets out to make an assessment of the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth in transition countries through a review of the empirical record to date. The first part reviews the phases of transition in combination with policy efforts to attract FDI. In the second part, different growth studies across levels of analysis are juxtaposed to better understand the overall growth impact of FDI in transition countries. Since foreign firms have a large direct effect on performance at the level of the firm it is often assumed that they automatically contribute to the economic growth of host countries. The missing link in this discussion is the concept of ‘trickle down’. Superior direct effects in terms of productivity and profitability are hypothesised to trickle down to the host country both as spillovers, or catalysing effects on local firms, and through the expected increase in income that such direct and indirect effects in combination will generate through labour income and taxes. The review shows that such trickle down effects are quite fragile in terms of being demonstrated to exist in transition countries. Combined with widespread usage of tax holidays, subsidies and acquisition discounts, it is not certain that positive direct effects equate with economic growth in these countries.     

Fiscal Federalism and International Capital: The Effects of Fiscal Federalism on Foreign Direct Investment and Sovereign Dept Ratings

Although the study of federalism has become one of the most intensely studied areas in economics and political science, no consensus has emerged on the impact of fiscal federalism on macroeconomic performance. I focus on one specific element of the debate‐ the role of fiscally federal institutions in allowing a country access to international capital markets. In an empirical analysis of 60 countries from 1975‐1995 I find fiscal federalism has no clear impact on inflows of foreign direct investment. In an examination of the impact of federalism on sovereign debt ratings for 40 countries from 1980‐1998, I find that fiscal federalism is associated with lower levels of sovereign debt risk.     

Food Price Transmission and Economic Development

In this paper we challenge the conventional wisdom that the world’s poorest countries are also the most vulnerable to spikes in international food prices. We derive an inverted U-shaped relationship between food price transmission and the development level of a country from a theoretical model. This prediction is subsequently tested in two sets of regressions where economic development is approximated by per capita income and where we control for a number of other potential determinants of food price transmission. The first set of regressions is based on estimated transmission elasticities and the second on actual domestic food price changes during spikes in international food prices. In both sets of regressions we find strong evidence of the existence of an inverted U-shaped relation between food price transmission and income. Thus, food prices in middle income (rather than in low income) countries respond the strongest to changes in international food prices, implying that the poor in these countries are the most exposed to spikes in food prices. We also show that the factors explaining the variation in the estimated transmission elasticities can explain the variation in domestic food price changes during spikes in international food prices equally well.     

‘Perceived social citizenship’: a comparative study between two different hukous

In China, there are immense barriers to inclusive social citizenship because of the failure to overcome the institutional fragmentation of social security across the hukou division. The hukou system continues to be important in determining how social citizenship is granted in China; not only does it facilitate dual social citizenship, it imposes perceptions of deservingness that bolster these divisions. The aim of this paper is to build a social-citizenship-based framework, drawing upon the strengths of the capability approach, which is applicable to the complexity of the rural–urban divide in China. Referring to several data sources, the paper examines social citizenship as a subjective phenomenon. The paper highlights the social exclusion mechanisms embedded in the hukou system that might have an effect on social citizenship as a state of self-awareness.     

Medical Findings and Legal Outcomes in Sexually Abused Children*

Abstract: A previous study published in 2000 on a small group of children concluded that the medical examination in cases of sexual child abuse seldom provided legal proof of sexual abuse [J Forensic Sci 45(2000):115–7]. The present consecutive study included children referred to the police for a forensic medical examination. A colposcope was used to evaluate the anogenital findings which were classified as normal, nonspecific, and abnormal. Four hundred and eighty‐two children were included. Abnormal anogenital findings were found in 38% of the girls and 20% of the boys, but there was no relation between abnormal anogenital findings and the two legal outcomes: “appearing in court” and “being convicted.” However, the age of the child turned out to be a more important factor in relation to legal outcome than the physical findings. The results of this study suggest that the child’s statement and not the physical findings were important for legal outcome.