Estimating Regression Models in Which the Dependent Variable Is Based on Estimates

e-mail: jblewis{at}ucla.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: dlinzer{at}ucla.edu Researchers often use as dependent variables quantities estimatedfrom auxiliary data sets. Estimated dependent variable (EDV)models arise, for example, in studies where counties or statesare the units of analysis and the dependent variable is an estimatedmean, proportion, or regression coefficient. Scholars fittingEDV models have generally recognized that variation in the samplingvariance of the observations on the dependent variable willinduce heteroscedasticity. We show that the most common approachto this problem, weighted least squares, will usually lead toinefficient estimates and underestimated standard errors. Inmany cases, OLS with White's or Efron heteroscedastic consistentstandard errors yields better results. We also suggest two simplealternative FGLS approaches that are more efficient and yieldconsistent standard error estimates. Finally, we apply the variousalternative estimators to a replication of Cohen's (2004) cross-nationalstudy of presidential approval.     

An assessment of four solvents for the recovery of 2-chlorobenzylidenemalononitrile and capsaicins from "CS" and "Pepper" type lachrymator sprays, and an examination of their persistence on cotton fabric

The rising incidence of assaults involving lachrymator sprays has led to an increase in items being submitted to this laboratory for the analysis of the associated chemical residues. The following work was undertaken to identify an efficient solvent with which to extract the compounds of interest from cotton fabric. The persistence and subsequent recovery of such compounds was also examined following protracted exposure to wind and rain. Ethyl acetate was established as the most efficient solvent of those examined for the extraction of 2-chlorobenzylidenemalononitrile and a range of capsaicins from "CS Gas" and '"Pepper" sprays respectively. Controlled experiments undertaken showed that capsaicins were recoverable after 72 h of exposure to the "elements" and 2-chlorobenzylidenemalononitrile was still recoverable after one week.     

Property tax in Indonesia: measuring and explaining administrative (under‐) performance

One of the arguments made by some Indonesian government officials in defence of continued central control over the property tax is that it has performed well under their authority and that its decentralisation would inevitably result in weaker operations and outcomes. The property tax has indeed grown remarkably well over the past 15 years. This growth, however, has been from a very low base, has been dominated by increased revenues from the mining sector and has been driven by a small number of sub‐national governments. Recently, only around 40% of local sector property tax potential has been realised under central control, given the existing tax rate and base. Property valuations are the most problematic aspect of administration but tax coverage and collections are also sub‐standard. While there may, in fact, be insufficient local government capacity to manage the property tax, even to current levels of performance, this problem could be solved by transferring the relevant central staff to local governments, as has been carried out in other newly decentralised sectors. But even before tax administration is devolved, local governments could at least be given some authority over the property tax rate, presently one of the lowest in the world. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Differences in the predictive validity of actuarial risk assessments in relation to sex offender type

This study seeks to expand on the previously reported validity of the Static-99, RRASOR, MnSOST-R, and SORAG in predicting sexual recidivism utilizing a regional sample of offenders. The predictive validity of each test was determined utilizing subgroups of the sample based on each offender's known offense history. The effectiveness of each instrument varied depending on offender type. The Static-99 and SORAG were both significantly predictive of sexual, violent, and any recidivism for extra-familial child molesters, and all four tests were predictive of violent or any recidivism in this subgroup. For incest offenders, all four tests were at least moderately predictive of sexual recidivism, whereas the Static-99 and the SORAG were highly predictive of violent or any recidivism. None of the four tests established consistent predictive validity across recidivism categories in regard to rapists or hands-off offenders, however, the Static-99 and the SORAG were significant in terms of sexual recidivism.     

Reviews

Laszlo Csaba (ed.), Privatisation, Liberalisation and Destruction (Recreating the Market in Central and Eastern Europe). Aldershot and Brookfield, NY: Dartmouth Publishing Company Ltd, 1994.

Iliana Zloch‐Christy, Eastern Europe in a Time of Change: Economic and Political Dimensions. Westport, CT: Praeger, 1994, xvii + 143 pp.

J. Michael Waller, Secret Empire. The KGB in Russia Today. Oxford: Westview, 1994 x + 390 pp., £42.50 h/b, £13.50 p/b.

James M. Goldgeier, Leadership Style and Soviet Foreign Policy. Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1994, x + 169 pp., £29.00.

Vladimir Andrle, A Social History of Twentieth‐Century Russia. London: Edward Arnold, 1994, xi + 289 pp., £40.00 h/b, £14.99 p/b.

Graeme Gill, The Collapse of a Single‐Party System: The Disintegration of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1994, xi + 255 pp., $35.00 h/b, $14.95 p/b.

John J. Stephan, The Russian Far East: A History. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1994, xxiii + 481 pp.     

Reviews

Janos Kornai, The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992, xxvii + 644 pp., £35.00 h/b, £9.95 p/b.

R. W. Davies, M. Harrison & S. G. Wheatcroft (eds), The Economic Transformation of the Soviet Union, 1913–1945. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994, xvi + 381 pp., £40.00 h/b, £15.95 p/b.

Michael H. Bernhard, The Origins of Democratization in Poland: Workers, Intellectuals, and Oppositional Politics, 1976–1980. New York: Columbia University Press, 1993, xv + 298 pp., $57.00 h/b, $20.50 p/b.

Rein Taagepera, Estonia: Return to Independence. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, xv + 268 pp., £33.50 h/b, £11.95 p/b.

Silviu Brucan, The Wasted Generation. Memoirs of the Romanian Journey from Capitalism to Socialism and Back. Boulder, CO, San Francisco, CA and Oxford: Westview Press, 1993, xii + 227 pp., £19.95.     

The detection of cocaine in hair specimens using micro-plate enzyme immunoassay.

The analysis of hair for drugs of abuse is becoming increasingly popular and is under consideration by the Division of Health and Human Services as a possible alternative or adjunct to urinalysis in workplace programs. The detection of cocaine in human hair using a commercially available micro-plate enzyme immunoassay is described for the first time. Sample size and incubation time were the major variables in the optimization of the method. In order to validate the procedure, the method was applied to 105 consecutive hair samples routinely received into our laboratory. The samples were simultaneously analyzed by the Micro-Plate immunoassay (EIA), as well as our current fluorescence polarization immunoassay (FPIA) procedure and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The sensitivity of the EIA and FPIA assays were 75% and 67.8% respectively; specificity 97.4% and 80.5% respectively; and efficiency 91.4 and 77.1% respectively. The Micro-Plate EIA was shown to be a valid alternative to other immunoassay screening methods for the detection of cocaine in hair by demonstrating increased sensitivity, specificity and efficiency over our current technique.