Crime Trends in the EU

The paper’s aim is to show to EU policy makers, academics, journalists and the general public what the available information tells us about crime levels, trends in crime and public opinion about crime among Member States. The paper centres on an analysis of current trends on crime levels and trends based on the data available both from victimisation surveys and police statistics. The victimisation survey source is the published data collected in the International Crime Victimisation Survey. A separate analysis based on the Eurobarometer was also carried out. Data on police statistics present two separate sources i.e. the Council of Europe Sourcebook and the crime data published annually by the UK Home Office. These two sources both add considerable value to the raw police statistics by their choice of data, their commentary and their technical explanations and definitions. The paper compares data on three crime types (robbery, domestic burglary and theft of a motor vehicle) across the 15 Member States of the European Union (as in 2003). These three types were selected in line with the priorities of the EU Commission and as types of crime that are a major concern for EU-citizens. The paper has been modified from a report produced by the European Crime prevention network for the EU Directorate of Justice and Home Affairs with the permission of the EU. The members of the network are listed in the appendix.     

Prediction of first ballot mock jury votes by the Analytic Juror Rater

Two scales of Abbott's (1987) Analytic Juror Rater (AJR) were used with 24 mock jurors to predict first ballot mock jury votes. Each participant observed one of two mock trial proceedings involving an actual second degree murder case. In a moot courtroom, they heard arguments from attorneys and witnessed examination of the defendant and actors portraying witnesses. The Cosmopolitan Lifestyle Scale of the AJR successfully predicted first ballot votes of participants (p<.02), while the Non-Authoritarian Scale showed a non-significant trend in the hypothesized direction. It was concluded that, in cases where evidence is not strong, the AJR may lend modest assistance to the attorney using peremptory challenge to eliminatevenire members who may be biased against a defendant.     

Psychosocial factors related to wife abuse

This paper reports the results of a comparative study of wife abuse. Factors that distinguished 94 physically abused women from a comparison group of 110 women were sought. The groups were matched on number of years married or cohabiting and socioeconomic status. Evidence was found that further supports a learning theory explanation of wife abuse. The study also found that wife abuse is no more likely to be displayed by blacks than by whites when the variable of social class is controlled.     

Understanding political risk in investment planning

In 1982, the Congress authorized $11 billion to modernize the nation's air traffic control system—one of the largest infrastructure investments since the building of the interstate highway system. Although this investment appears to offer a large and robust return, the economic results depend strongly on productivity gains through system consolidation. It is uncertain what balance the Congress will strike between the long-term, widely shared benefits of greater productivity and the immediate job losses from system consolidation. This risk can be included in the calculus of expected return through Monte Carlo analysis. When this is done, the expected return drops very close to the 10% hurdle rate that the government often uses for such projects. This method of integrating political risk can be applied to any investment, public or private, for which political action joins the customary economic and technical uncertainties in affecting the outcome.