Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and the Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis

John R. Freeman Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, 267 19th Avenue, Minneapolis, MN 55455 e-mail: pbrandt{at}utdallas.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: freeman{at}polisci.umn.edu Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasinglypopular. But Bayesian approaches to modeling multiple time serieshave not been critically evaluated. This is in spite of thepotential value of these models in international relations,political economy, and other fields of our discipline. We reviewrecent developments in Bayesian multi-equation time series modelingin theory testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. Methodsfor constructing Bayesian measures of uncertainty of impulseresponses (Bayesian shape error bands) are explained. A referenceprior for these models that has proven useful in short- andmedium-term forecasting in macroeconomics is described. Oncemodified to incorporate our experience analyzing political dataand our theories, this prior can enhance our ability to forecastover the short and medium terms complex political dynamics likethose exhibited by certain international conflicts. In addition,we explain how contingent Bayesian forecasts can be constructed,contingent Bayesian forecasts that embody policy counterfactuals.The value of these new Bayesian methods is illustrated in areanalysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of the 1980s.     

Color separation in forensic image processing

In forensic image processing, it is often important to be able to separate a feature from an interfering background or foreground, or to demonstrate colors within an image to be different from each other. In this study, a color deconvolution algorithm that could accomplish this task is described, and it is applied to color separation problems in document and fingerprint examination. Subtle color differences (sometimes invisible to the naked eye) are found to be sufficient, which is demonstrated successfully for several cases where color differences were shown to exist, or where colors were removed from the foreground or background. The software is available for free in the form of an Adobe Photoshop-compatible plug-in.     

GHB free acid: I. Solution formation studies and spectroscopic characterization by 1HNMR and FT-IR

In forensic evidence, gamma-hydroxybutyric acid (GHB) has frequently been encountered in one of its salt forms (gamma-hydroxybutyrate), but has also been encountered in its free acid form (GHB). Owing to the physical properties, encounters of the free acid have been largely restricted to forensic exhibits comprising aqueous solutions, such as acidic beverages that have been "spiked" or formulated with GHB salts or gamma-butyrolactone (GBL). The analysis of GHB free acid presents particular difficulties including the potential for altering the original proportions of GHB free acid, GHB carboxylate, and GBL in the course of analysis, and discrimination between GHB free acid and carboxylate forms. In this work, the formation of GHB free acid in aqueous solutions (water and/or D2O) was studied as a function of solution pH. Proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1HNMR) and Fourier-transform infrared spectrometry (FT-IR) measurements were obtained on freshly prepared mixtures of NaGHB and HCl stock solutions representing a series of points along the GHB titration curve. Both 1HNMR and FT-IR were shown to track the changing proportions of GHB free acid and carboxylate forms as a function of pH, while simultaneously monitoring for the formation of the lactone (GBL). The results were consistent with acid-base conversion behavior for a carboxylic acid. 1HNMR was shown to provide an ideal means for analysis of aqueous-based GHB/GBL forensic exhibits based on simple dilution of the neat liquid exhibit, without altering the original proportions of GHB free acid, carboxylate, and GBL in the samples.     

Fatal bromethalin poisoning

Bromethalin is a neurotoxin found in some rodenticides. A delusional 21-year-old male presented to a hospital with altered mental status the day after ingesting a bromethalin-based rodenticide. He died 7 days after his self-reported exposure to c. 17 mg bromethalin (equivalent to 0.33 mg bromethalin/kg). His clinicopathologic course was characterized by altered mental status, obtundation, increased cerebrospinal fluid pressure, cerebral edema, death, and diffuse histologic vacuolization of the white matter in the central nervous system seen on microscopic examination at autopsy. The presence of a demethylated form of bromethalin in the patient's liver and brain was confirmed by gas chromatography with mass spectrometry. Clinical signs and lesions observed in this patient are similar to those seen in animals poisoned with bromethalin. This case illustrates the potential for bromethalin ingestion to result in fatal human poisoning.     

Bank security dye packs: synthesis, isolation, and characterization of chlorinated products of bleached 1-(methylamino)anthraquinone

Banknote evidence is often submitted after a suspect has attempted to disguise or remove red dye stain that has been released because of an anti-theft device that activates after banknotes have been unlawfully removed from bank premises. Three chlorinated compounds have been synthesized as forensic chemical standards to indicate bank security dye bleaching as a suspect's intentional method for masking a robbery involving dye pack release on banknotes. A novel, facile synthetic method to provide three chlorinated derivatives of 1-(methylamino)anthraquinone (MAAQ) is presented. The synthetic route involved Ultra Clorox bleach as the chlorine source, iron chloride as the catalyst, and MAAQ as the starting material and resulted in a three-component product mixture. Two mono-chlorinated isomers (2-chloro-1-(methylamino)anthraquinone and 4-chloro-1-(methylamino)anthraquinone) and one di-chlorinated compound (2,4-dichloro-1-(methylamino)anthraquinone) of the MAAQ parent molecule were detected by gas chromatography mass spectrometry (GC-MS), and subsequently isolated by liquid chromatography (LC) with postcolumn fraction collection. Although GC-MS is sensitive enough to detect all of the chlorinated products, it is not definitive enough to identify the structural isomers. Liquid-state nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy was utilized to elucidate structurally the ortho- and para-mono-chlorinated isomers once enough material was properly isolated. A reaction mechanism involving iron is proposed to explain the presence of chlorinated MAAQ species on stolen banknotes after attempted bleaching.     

Microbial metagenome profiling using amplicon length heterogeneity-polymerase chain reaction proves more effective than elemental analysis in discriminating soil specimens

The combination of soil's ubiquity and its intrinsic abiotic and biotic information can contribute greatly to the forensic field. Although there are physical and chemical characterization methods of soil comparison for forensic purposes, these require a level of expertise not always encountered in crime laboratories. We hypothesized that soil microbial community profiling could be used to discriminate between soil types by providing biological fingerprints that confer uniqueness. Three of the six Miami-Dade soil types were randomly selected and sampled. We compared the microbial metagenome profiles generated using amplicon length heterogeneity-polymerase chain reaction analysis of the 16S rRNA genes with inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy analysis of 13 elements (Al, B, Ca, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, P, S, Si, and Zn) that are commonly encountered in soils. Bray-Curtis similarity index and analysis of similarity were performed on all data to establish differences within sites, among sites, and across two seasons. These data matrices were used to group samples that shared similar community patterns using nonmetric multidimensional scaling analysis. We concluded that while chemical characterization could provide some differentiation between soils, microbial metagenome profiling was better able to discriminate between the soil types and had a high degree of reproducibility, therefore proving to be a potential tool for forensic soil comparisons.     

Violent Sex Offenses: How are They Best Measured from Official Records?

In the United States, sexually violent predator (SVP) commitment statutes generally require assessment of an offender's risk of subsequent sexual violence. Current actuarial methods for predicting sexual reoffending were actually designed to predict something else—charges or convictions for offenses deemed sexual based on information obtained from police “rapsheets” alone. This study examined the referral and past offenses of 177 sex offenders. Results showed that police rapsheets (and data based on them) underestimated the number and severity of sexually motivated violent offenses for which sex offenders were actually apprehended. Rapsheet violent offenses seemed a more accurate index of the conduct addressed by SVP legislation than were rapsheet sex offenses. We suggest that, when evaluating sex offenders for SVP status, actuarial instruments designed to predict violent recidivism (as measured by rapsheet violent reoffenses) might be preferable to those designed to predict sexual recidivism (as measured by rapsheet sexual reoffenses).

Drug screening and confirmation by GC-MS: comparison of EMIT II and Online KIMS against 10 drugs between US and England laboratories

Drug screening through urinalysis is a widely accepted tool for rapid detection of potential drug use at a relatively low cost. It is, therefore, a potentially useful method for detecting and monitoring drug use in a variety of contexts such as the criminal justice system, pre-employment screening and a variety of treatment centers. This article explores the efficacy of two commercially available drug-screening assays: Online KIMS assay (Roche) and EMIT II assays. First, we evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of two immunoassays. A total of 738 urine samples were collected among adult arrestee populations from Chicago, New Orleans and Seattle through the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring (ADAM) program. Partial samples were split within one laboratory and analyzed by both enzymes multiplied immunoassay technique (EMIT) II and kinetic interaction of microparticle in solution (KIMS) assays for a 10-drug panel (amphetamine, barbiturates, benzodiazepines, marijuana, cocaine, methadone, methaqualone, opiate, phencyclidine and propoxyphene). Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was used as a confirmation method for all positives from either EMIT II or KIMS for all experiments. Second, the paper examines whether using different testing laboratories plays a role in the final results. The same experiments were repeated at two different testing locations: one in California and one in London and England. Third, the paper studies whether drug testing results vary between two laboratories when each of them had used their own routine screening method: the Forensic Science Service (FSS) at Birmingham, United Kingdom with KIMS assay and Medscreen Limited at London, United Kingdom with EMIT II. In summary, both EMIT II and KIMS assays generate fairly consistent results. The concordance rate against each of the 10 drugs tested is relatively high (97.4-100%). The discrepancies, in most cases, occurred at drug concentrations near the cut-off levels. There were more discrepant results between two laboratories compared to when specimens were analyzed at the same laboratory using two different assays.     

What shall we do with the drunken sailor?: Effects of alcohol on the performance of ship operators

The purpose of this study was to specify the effects of alcohol on the performance of ship operators as a contribution to the development of new strategies against the risks of alcohol in water traffic. The nautical performance of 21 captains before and after alcohol consumption was assessed on a ship piloting simulator. The simulated scenarios represented passages of a container vessel through the German Bight. Performance was examined by nautical instructors according to standardised protocols. Mean (S.D.) blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) of 0.100 (0.024) g/dl before and 0.100 (0.017) g/dl after the performance trial resulted in striking effects on the nautical performance. The categories most severely affected were foresight and analysis of situation (impairment in 18 of 21 cases), concentration (impairment in 16 of 21 cases), accurateness, risk disposition and navigation (impairment in 15 of 21 cases). Chart work, preparation and communication were impaired in 12, 11 and 10 of 21 cases, respectively. None of the participants were capable to operate the simulated ship with an adequate safety after ingestion of alcohol. From these findings, and in consideration of the well-established impairment of a multitude of mental and physical functions by alcohol, it can be concluded that even low BACs bear high risks in water traffic, a concentration above 0.1 g/dl will hinder a sufficiently safe performance of ship operators. This should be considered in alcohol education and legislation.