Voter turnout: How much can we explain?

This paper evaluates the ability of common explanatory variables to predict who votes. Logit voting regressions are estimated with more than three dozen explanatory variables using survey and aggregate data for the 1979, 1980, 1984, and 1988 Canadian national elections. We find that the usual demographic variables such as age and education, and contextual variables such as campaign spending have significant effects on the probability of voting, but the models have low R2's and cannot predict who votes more accurately than random guessing. We also estimate regressions using past voting behavior as a predictor of current behavior, and find that although the explanatory power rises it remains low. This suggests that the difficulty in explaining turnout arises primarily from omitted time- varying variables. In some sense, then, it appears that whether or not a person votes is to a large degree random. The evidence provides support for the rational voter theory, and is problematic for psycho/sociological approaches.     

Decentralization and the post-war political economy

Abstract This paper uses cross–national data for 21 OECD nations to examine whether there is evidence of a connection between measures of political and fiscal decentralization and the major, long–term, performance parameters of the post–war political economy. Findings of what is necessarily an exploratory analysis of a wide range of policy outcomes suggest that federalism and the proliferation of constitutional veto–points have inhibited the expansion of the socially protective state and that a low level of fiscal centralization appears to have restrained post–war inflationary pressures and gone along with higher rates of post–war economic growth. No evidence is found to connect either political or fiscal measures with postwar labour market performance.     

Globalization and the erosion of democracy

Despite the apparent development and spread of liberal democratic state forms in the 1980s and 1990s, possibilities for genuine democratic governance overall are declining. Firstly, the emergence and consolidation of modern liberal democracy was inextricably intertwined with the development of the nation–state and is profoundly socially embedded in that structural context. Secondly, in today's globalizing world, cross–cutting and overlapping governance structures and processes increasingly take private, oligarchic (and mixed public/ private) forms; hegemonic neoliberal norms are delegitimizing state–based governance in general; and democratic states are losing the policy capacity necessary for transforming democratically generated inputs into authoritative outputs. Consequently, robust constraints limit the potential for (a) reinstitutionalizing the 'democratic chain' between accountability and effectiveness, (b) rearticulating the multitasking character of authoritative institutions and (c) renewing the capacity of authoritative agents to make the side–payments and to undertake the monitoring necessary to control free–riding and assimilate alienated groups. Rather than a new pluralistic global civil society, globalization is more likely to lead to a growth in inequalities, a fragmentation of effective governance structures and the multiplication of quasi–fiefdoms reminiscent of the Middle Ages.     

Suicidal behavior in the Ukraine, 1988-1998

This report studies the available data concerning suicide rates in the Ukraine and points to the importance of appropriate monitoring of suicides and attempted suicides. It illustrates the necessity of collecting this information and of developing "The Ukrainian National Program on Suicide Prevention." Unfortunately, suicide research and publications about suicide rates were prohibited in the former Soviet Union, so some of the data about suicidal behavior in the Ukraine is incomplete. We used the official suicide death statistics of the Ukraine from the Center of Statistics (Ukrainian Ministry of Health) for the period 1988-1998. The overall rate of suicide in the Ukraine is relatively high. Official statistics in the Ukraine show that there were 29.6 suicides per 100,000 population in 1998. The frequency of completed suicide differs in the various regions of the country, suicides being more frequent in the industrially developed regions and in the rural areas of the country than in the cities. In the western part of the Ukraine the frequency of suicide is relatively low (11.1 per 100,000). Between 1988 and 1997 the suicide rate increased by 57%. In 1998 the suicide rate for women was approximately five times lower than that for men.     

Electrospray and MALDI mass spectrometry in the identification of spermicides in criminal investigations.

Electrospray ionization (ESI) and matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) mass spectrometry have been used to examine evidence in a sexual assault investigation. Because condoms are being used increasingly by sexual assailants and some condom brands include the spermicide nonoxynol-9 (nonylphenoxy polyethoxyethanol) in the lubricant formulation, the recovery, and identification of nonoxynol-9 from evidence items may assist in proving corpus delicti. A method was developed for the recovery of nonoxynol-9 from internal vaginal swabs and for its identification by reverse phase liquid chromatography/electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (LC ESI-MS), nanoelectrospray ionization (nanoESI) mass spectrometry, and high resolution MALDI Fourier transform mass spectrometry (MALDI-FTMS). The method was tested on extracts from precoitus, immediate postcoitus, and four-hours postcoitus vaginal swabs provided by a volunteer whose partner does not normally use condoms, but for this trial used a condom having a water-soluble gel-type lubricant that includes 5% nonoxynol-9 in its formulation. Subsequently, LC ESI-MS was used to identify traces of nonoxynol-9 from the internal vaginal swab of a victim of a sexual assault.