Voting Islamist or voting secular? An empirical analysis of voting outcomes in Egypt’s “Arab Spring”

This paper studies empirically the voting outcomes of Egypt’s first parliamentary elections after the Arab Spring. In light of the strong Islamist success at the polls, we explore the main determinants of Islamist versus secular voting. We identify two dimensions that affect voting outcomes at the constituency level: socioeconomic profile and the electoral institutional framework. Our results show that education is negatively associated with Islamist voting. Interestingly, we find significant evidence suggesting that higher poverty levels are associated with a lower vote share for Islamist parties. Exploiting the sequential voting setup, we show that later voting stages have not resulted in stronger support for the already winning Islamist parties (i.e., there is no bandwagon effect).     

Detecting deception in second‐language speakers

Purpose. We examined whether language proficiency had an impact on lie detection. Methods. We collected video footage of 30 targets who spoke English as their native or second language and who lied or told the truth about a transgression. Undergraduate students (N = 51) then judged the veracity of these 30 clips and indicated how confident they were in their ratings. Results. Participants were more confident when judging native‐language truth‐tellers than second‐language truth‐tellers. In addition, participants were more likely to exhibit a truth‐bias when observing native‐language speakers, whereas they were more likely to exhibit a lie‐bias when viewing second‐language speakers. Conclusions. Given the difficulties and biases associated with second‐language lie detection, further research is needed.     

An Economic Analysis of Flexible Permit Trading in the Kyoto Protocol

This paper evaluates the relative gains from augmenting or restricting several of the flexibility mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol. A nonlinear programming model of international emissions trading is used to assess the net benefits of extending trading across time periods and across countries (Joint Implementation), and including the developing world (Clean Development Mechanism). The effect of limiting permit purchases (supplementarity) is also evaluated. The analysis is intended to help guide further climate negotiations by identifying flexibility mechanisms that contribute the most to enhancing the gains from greenhouse gas mitigation and identifying restrictions that detract the most from these gains.     

Terror and triage: prioritizing access to mass smallpox vaccination

In response to the threat of a smallpox attack on the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ("CDC") recommended the establishment of smallpox clinics designed to distribute a vaccine to the entire U.S. population in a ten day period. However, a number of potential obstacles raise questions about the feasibility of this plan. What is needed is a plan that applies principles of triage to smallpox vaccine distribution following a bioterrorism attack. Only in this way can those most vulnerable--the previously unvaccinated--be protected from a significantly increased risk due to delays that might arise in executing the CDC plan.     

Getting Out the Vote: Minority Mobilization in a Presidential Election

Despite attempts to mobilize communities of color, gaps in turnout among racial and ethnic minorities persist (e.g., Abrajano et al., J Polit 70:368–382, 2008; Pantoja et al., Polit Res Q 54:729–750, 2001; Kaufmann, Polit Res Q 56:199–210, 2003; Ramirez, Ann Am Acad Pol Soc Sci 601:66–84, 2005, Am Polit Res 35:155–175, 2007). Scholars are only beginning to understand how parties or independent groups seek to mobilize these communities. In this paper, we develop and test the Differential Contact Thesis, which holds that turnout differences between whites and minority groups are influenced both by lower rates of contact by the parties and the use of less effective methods of contact. To test this, we examine data from the 2004 National Annenberg Election Study (NAES), 2004 American National Election Study (ANES), and the 2004 Miami Exit Poll. Our results support the Differential Contact Thesis: even controlling for the initial likelihood to be contacted by the parties, racial and ethnic minorities were less likely to be contacted using the most effective techniques. To some extent, non-partisan contact seems to compensate for the inattention of the major parties toward minority voters, but this contact is less likely to mobilize voters than contact from the parties.     

Web-Based Accountability in the Nonprofit Sector: A Closer Look at Arts,Culture, and Humanities Organizations

ABSTRACT

Web-based accountability continues to be an important consideration for nonprofit organizations. This research examines the impact of certain variables on web-based accountability in the arts, culture, and humanities sector. A content analysis of eighty nonprofit organizations was performed and multiple statistical analyses were used. Findings indicated that regulatory measures, including the prosecution and a detection index, are the most significant variables for determining web-based accountability for this group of nonprofit organizations.     

Moroccan adolescent suspect offenders in the Netherlands: ethnic differences in offender profiles

Ethnic minority youths are over-represented in the juvenile justice system in Western societies. However, research on the nature of crime committed by these youths is lacking. In the present study, offending patterns of incarcerated native Dutch adolescents and adolescents of Moroccan origin were compared. Criminal record data were used to examine the offence history of 291 incarcerated adolescents. Offender types were determined through latent class analysis. Adolescents of Moroccan origin were incarcerated more often, for more offences and at a younger age than native Dutch adolescents. A four-class model of offender types was found: property offenders, violent offenders, sexual offenders and arsonists. Property offenders were mainly Moroccan adolescents, the other offender types consisted predominantly of native Dutch adolescents. Moroccan adolescents in pre-trial arrest in the Netherlands can be characterized as early starting offenders who persist in being incarcerated for property-based crime.