Market cycles,power politics and the latest North – South energy trade conflict

Energy trade periodically aligns Northern importing – consuming countries against predominantly Southern producing – exporting countries. Conflict appears to follow a cyclical pattern, whereby Northern firms invest in developing Third World hydrocarbon resources to meet consumer demand until market conditions enable unilateral efforts by host sovereigns to augment fiscal take and ownership share and to impose output restrictions, thereby elevating prices and revenues. Although markets eventually correct themselves, major consuming-country governments, to the extent that seller's markets attributable to exporter actions harm short-term consumer welfare and alternative options for restoring buyer's markets are lacking, have varying incentives to support military intervention. Shifting market conditions and power balances suggest six ideal-typical energy trade conflict strategies. Finally, to the extent that exporting states succeed in converting higher hydrocarbon revenues into energy-intensive economic growth, co-operative phases within this conflict pattern could yield to increasingly zero-sum inter-consumer rivalry.     

SHOULD JUDGES CLOSE THE GATE ON PAS AND PA?

Parental Alienation Syndrome and Parental Alienation are evolving clinical concepts. They are controversial. Their limits, the limits of the legal system, and recent developments in the use and admissibility of expert evidence call into question the appropriateness of their use within the trial process.     

Is ABCM Destined for Success or Failure in the Federal Government?

The days of ballooning federal budgets are over. Today, both the president and Congress continue to strive for a balanced budget, while encouraging federal agencies to improve service delivery of the various programs and entitlement benefits provided to their customers. Stakeholder involvement and public opinion about how agencies run their "businesses" are increasingly scrutinized. Trends such as competition for service delivery through franchizing, privatization, and outsourcing are causing an entirely new way of looking at how support and program services are managed. This article explains how the success or failure of activity-based costing management (ABCM) is dependent upon its ability to link the resolution of these external factors with internal business needs, while providing government managers with a better understanding of how to use ABCM to steer their organizations into the future. We also describe the current and future status of ABCM installations at various federal entities where ABCM was recently introduced and where interviews, conducted a year ago, were updated to describe how ABCM is helping these entities align external factors to internal needs. These federal entities are the Immigration and Naturalization Service, the Financial Management Service, and the Veterans Benefits Administration.     

Predictive Efficacy and the Preventive Detention of Dangerous Sexual Offenders: Contributions from Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Theory

Behavioral scientists are regularly summoned by the legal system to make predictions about the likelihood of future dangerous behavior (i.e., violence prediction/risk assessment). In recent years, such efforts have been subjected to considerable scrutiny as, despite the evolution of risk assessment instruments, social scientists have yet to demonstrate the ability to predict violence with a reasonable degree of accuracy. Yet concerns with predictive efficacy may be rooted in the limitations of prediction itself. Nonlinear dynamical systems theory (i.e., chaos theory) and quantum physics jointly paint a picture of human behavior as fundamentally unpredictable; in their light, we are asked to question whether future violence can ever be predicted with a tolerable level of error. In this article, I provisionally explore this very issue, particularly as it appears in the context of decisions concerning the disposition of criminal sexual offenders.