Weltanschauung und ihre soziale Basis im Spiegel eidgenössischer Volksabstimmungen

Dank regelmässigen Volksbefragungen sind in der Schweiz detaillierte Rückschlüsse auf die Wertkonflikte in der Gesellschaft und die diesen Wertkonflikten zu Grunde liegenden Weltanschauungen möglich. Das Aufdecken der weltanschaulichen Differenzierung und ihrer sozialen Hintergründe ist das Ziel dieses Beitrags. Der hierzu neu entwickelte induktive Ansatz besteht aus der Verbindung einer quantitativen Aggregatanalyse auf Gemeindebasis mit einer qualitativen Inhaltsanalyse aller 158 eidgenössischen Abstimmungsvorlagen zwischen 1981 und 1999. Die aufgedeckte Struktur der Weltanschauung setzt sich aus den drei Komponenten Links gegen Rechts, Liberal gegen Konservativ und Ökologisch gegen Technokratisch zusammen. Durch die konsequente mehrdimensionale Betrachtung sind wichtige aktuelle politische Auseinandersetzungen als Zusammenspiel dieser drei Komponenten erkennbar. Der so gebildete Raum der Weltanschauungen dient als geschlossenes Modell zur Analyse der Entwicklungen und Interdependenzen von sozialen Gräben und politischen Konflikten. Die analytische Trennung der materiellen gesellschaftlichen Ebene von der ideellen weltanschaulichen Ebene, lässt Schlüsse von politischem Wandel auf sozialen Wandel und umgekehrt von sozialem Wandel auf politischen Wandel zu.     

Controlling coalitions: Social lending at the multilateral development banks

Multilateral development banks (MDBs) dramatically increased social lending for health, education, and safety nets after 1985. Yet the great powers’ social policy preferences remained relatively static from 1980 to 2000. This contradicts the conventional view that powerful states control IOs. We argue that highly institutionalized IOs like MDBs require a complete model of possible member-state coalitions encompassing the preferences of all member states—not just major powers. We develop multiple measures of state preferences and include all member states in our coalitional model. We evaluate our model and alternatives with an analysis of more than 10,000 MDB loans from 1980 to 2000. We find that when we include all member states weighted by their voting shares, principal preferences are significantly related to lending outcomes.     

How to Analyze Political Attention with Minimal Assumptions and Costs

Previous methods of analyzing the substance of political attention have had to make several restrictive assumptions or been prohibitively costly when applied to large-scale political texts. Here, we describe a topic model for legislative speech, a statistical learning model that uses word choices to infer topical categories covered in a set of speeches and to identify the topic of specific speeches. Our method estimates, rather than assumes, the substance of topics, the keywords that identify topics, and the hierarchical nesting of topics. We use the topic model to examine the agenda in the U.S. Senate from 1997 to 2004. Using a new database of over 118,000 speeches (70,000,000 words) from the Congressional Record , our model reveals speech topic categories that are both distinctive and meaningfully interrelated and a richer view of democratic agenda dynamics than had previously been possible.     

A method for measuring and decomposing electoral bias for the three-party case, illustrated by the British case

The measurement of bias in election results, whereby one or more parties are advantaged in the translation of votes into seats at the expense of others, is attracting increasing attention. So far, almost all of the analytical work – aimed at both identifying the extent of bias in an election result and establishing its causes – has focused on either two-party systems or on the largest two parties in multi-party systems. Building on the firm foundations of one such approach, this paper introduces an original procedure for analysing bias in three-party systems using a readily-appreciated metric for both evaluating the degree of bias and decomposing it into the various causal factors. This is illustrated using the example of the 2005 British general election and a comparison of the results from two-party and three-party analyses of six recent elections there.     

The Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians in the Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2001

This article examines the voting motivations of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative party leadership election of 2001. By constructing a data set of the voting behaviour of Conservative parliamentarians in the final parliamentary party ballot, this article seeks to test a series of hypotheses relating to the ideological disposition and political characteristics of the candidates vis-à-vis their electorate. The article examines how and why the eliminative parliamentary ballot ensured that the party membership was presented with a face-off between the europhile, Kenneth Clarke, and the eurosceptic, Iain Duncan Smith, and why the modernising and socially liberal Michael Portillo was rejected. It will demonstrate that while arguments based on ideological factors are valid, the political characteristics of age and career status were also significant motivational influences that contributed to the rejection of Portillo and the delaying of the modernisation of the Conservative party.     

The Evolution of the Theoretical Foundations of Punctuated Equilibrium Theory in Public Policy

Punctuated equilibrium theory in public policy replicated from biological punctuated equilibrium theory has concluded that public policies alternate between stasis and punctuation. However, recent research on Pacific Northwest forest policy, U.S. state tobacco policy, and U.S federal auto efficiency policy have found no punctuations despite an attempt to do so. What is the efficacy of using biological punctuated equilibrium theory to also explain punctuated equilibrium in public policy? Significant differences exist between biological and public policy punctuated equilibrium theory including time frames for change, what constitutes outside disturbances of equilibrium, venues of punctuated equilibrium, levels of analysis for change, and patterns of change. Most policy research on punctuation has focused on the “tone” of media coverage related to change. Some recent studies concluding no punctuation occurred have focused on government action or inaction. Proving strong inference in scientific research requires a clear and viable syllogism linked to appropriate methodology. Both of these crucial elements are now in question in punctuated equilibrium research in public policy.     

Black and (thin) blue (line): Corruption and other political determinants of police killings in America

Police violence is not uncommon in America, and the risk of civilians' being killed by police is considerably higher here than in similar countries, making it a major public health issue. For Black Americans the risk is significantly higher. In this study, we analyze the political determinants of police killings of Black Americans, with a specific focus on corruption in American states. Our evidence suggests that police can kill Black Americans with impunity because of a lack of accountability—exemplified by corruption—that is largely determined by political influences. Our findings point to ways in which the responsibility for police violence and killings is deeply rooted and influenced by the values of the wider society.     

The effect of e-cigarette taxes on pre-pregnancy and prenatal smoking

E-cigarette taxes are an active area of legislation and have important regulatory implications by proxying e-cigarette accessibility. We examine the effect of e-cigarette taxes on prepregnancy and prenatal smoking using the near-universe of births to mothers conceiving between 2013 and 2019 in the United States. Using fixed effect regressions, we show that e-cigarette taxes increase prepregnancy and prenatal smoking. We also find evidence that e-cigarette taxes reduce prepregnancy and 3rd trimester e-cigarette use. Finally, we show that e-cigarette taxes increase news coverage of e-cigarettes and raise perceptions of risk of e-cigarettes.