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When strength of forensic evidence is quantified using sample data and statistical models, a concern may be raised as to whether the output of a model overestimates the strength of evidence. This is particularly the case when the amount of sample data is small, and hence sampling variability is high. This concern is related to concern about precision. This paper describes, explores, and tests three procedures which shrink the value of the likelihood ratio or Bayes factor toward the neutral value of one. The procedures are: (1) a Bayesian procedure with uninformative priors, (2) use of empirical lower and upper bounds (ELUB), and (3) a novel form of regularized logistic regression. As a benchmark, they are compared with linear discriminant analysis, and in some instances with non-regularized logistic regression. The behaviours of the procedures are explored using Monte Carlo simulated data, and tested on real data from comparisons of voice recordings, face images, and glass fragments. 相似文献
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John F. Morrison 《Terrorism and Political Violence》2016,28(3):598-619
With the advent of the new violent dissident merger, “The IRA/New IRA,” the group and its affiliates have had to legitimise their new existence. They have utilised the maintenance of paramilitary activity to achieve this. However, they have also produced a number of organisational statements, justifying their position, tactics, and strategies. This article analyses the evolution of these statements, both pre and post-merger from 2007 to 2015. 126 individual statements and four magazines are analysed using grounded theory. This analysis found that the statements have a dual strategy, aiming to foster trust in the movement and distrust in their perceived enemies. One of the dominant ways in which the group aims to foster trust is by proposing their possession of an historical mandate from the republican forefathers of 1916, as well as the internally lauded paramilitaries from The Troubles-era Provisional Irish Republican Army. The focus of the distrust narrative has been on the “constitutional nationalism” of Sinn Féin. However, it also pours scorn on the Police Service of Northern Ireland, and capitalism, across the island of Ireland. The analysis of these statements can provide us with an understanding of the future direction of the group, as well as giving us insight, which can inform the development of any counter-narrative. 相似文献
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Geoffrey Stewart Morrison 《Science & justice》2009,49(4):298-308
We are in the midst of a paradigm shift in the forensic comparison sciences. The new paradigm can be characterised as quantitative data-based implementation of the likelihood-ratio framework with quantitative evaluation of the reliability of results. The new paradigm was widely adopted for DNA profile comparison in the 1990s, and is gradually spreading to other branches of forensic science, including forensic voice comparison. The present paper first describes the new paradigm, then describes the history of its adoption for forensic voice comparison over approximately the last decade. The paradigm shift is incomplete and those working in the new paradigm still represent a minority within the forensic–voice-comparison community. 相似文献
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Beidi Dong Christopher N. Morrison Charles C. Branas Therese S. Richmond Douglas J. Wiebe 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2020,36(1):119-152
This study clarifies three important issues regarding situational or opportunity theories of victimization: (1) whether engaging in risk activities triggers violent assault during specific, often fleeting moments, (2) how environmental settings along individuals’ daily paths affect their risk of violent assault, and (3) whether situational triggers have differential effects on violent assault during the day versus night. Using an innovative GIS-assisted interview technique, 298 young male violent assault victims in Philadelphia, PA described their activity paths over the course of the day of being assaulted. Case-crossover analyses compared each subject’s exposure status at the time of assault with his own statuses earlier in the day (stratified by daytime and nighttime). Being at an outdoor/public space, conducting unstructured activities, and absence of guardians increase the likelihood of violent victimization at a fine spatial–temporal scale at both daytime and nighttime. Yet, the presence of friends and environmental characteristics have differential effects on violent victimization at daytime versus nighttime. Moreover, individual risk activities appeared to exhibit better predictive performance than did environmental characteristics in our space–time situational analyses. This study demonstrates the value of documenting how individuals navigate their daily activity space, and ultimately advances our understanding of youth violence from a real-time, real-life standpoint. 相似文献
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在后现代主义中建构犯罪学理论 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
现代犯罪学留给我们至少11种互不融合的理论结构,但它们的要塞基础随着现代社会理论的消亡而土崩瓦解。在后现代社会里,能否建构起一种一般性的犯罪学理论或融合不同的犯罪学理论?怀疑不是绝望的理由,而是意识到需要采取创造性行动的证据。 相似文献