AN EVALUATION OF SUPERVISED ACCESS II

Two studies examined reactions of family members to supervised access (SA) services. In Study 1, 121 users of SA services were interviewed about their satisfaction. A subsample was interviewed about family relationships and children's well-being, at Time 1 and 5 months later. In Study 2, 29 children attending SA services were interviewed. Results showed that both custodial and noncustodial parents were very satisfied with the centers. There was no evidence that relationships between ex-spouses or their attitudes toward one another improved over a 5-month period. Children attending centers showed a high level of externalizing symptomatology. Children were positive about their experiences, although older children felt that the centers were not well equipped for their age group. Although the aim of centers is to provide a safe place for children, some children still experience emotionally disturbing events. Most children had little understanding about why they were attending centers.     

Development of Forensic Assay Signatures for Ebolaviruses

Ebolaviruses are a diverse group of RNA viruses comprising five different species, four of which cause fatal hemorrhagic fever in humans. Because of their high infectivity and lethality, ebolaviruses are considered major biothreat agents. Although detection assays exist, no forensic assays are currently available. Here, we report the development of forensic assays that differentiate ebolaviruses. We performed phylogenetic analyses and identified canonical SNPs for all species, major clades and isolates. TaqMan‐MGB allelic discrimination assays based on these SNPs were designed, screened against synthetic RNA templates, and validated against ebolavirus genomic RNAs. A total of 45 assays were validated to provide 100% coverage of the species and variants with additional resolution at the isolate level. These assays enabled accurate forensic analysis on 4 “unknown” ebolaviruses. Unknowns were correctly classified to species and variant. A goal of providing resolution below the isolate level was not successful. These high‐resolution forensic assays allow rapid and accurate genotyping of ebolaviruses for forensic investigations.     

Endogenous growth,the Solow model and human capital

Both endogenous growth theory and the (augmented) Solow model propose a role for human capital in the growth process though each is based on different conceptual arguments. Since both approaches can justify the inclusion of human capitallevels andgrowth rates in an output growth regression the two theories cannot readily be distinguished empirically. This paper argues that the variable most commonly used in empirical studies to proxy human capital (levels or growth) — school enrolment rates (SERs) — may capture bothstock andaccumulation effects, butchanges in SERs can provide useful additional dynamic information on the contribution of human capital to growth. Empirical evidence from samples of developed and less developed countries during 1960–85 suggests important growth effects associated both with ‘initial’ levels of, and changes in, SERs. The nature of these effects appears to differ between the two country groups.     

Seat biases of apportionment methods for proportional representation

In proportional representation systems, an important issue is whether a given apportionment method favors larger parties at the expense of smaller parties. For an arbitrary number of parties, ordered from largest to smallest by their vote counts, we calculate (apparently for the first time) the expected differences between the seat allocation and the ideal share of seats, separately for each party, as a function of district magnitude, with a particular emphasis on three traditional apportionment methods. These are (i) the quota method with residual fit by greatest remainders, associated with the names of Hamilton and Hare, (ii) the divisor method with standard rounding (Webster, Sainte-Laguë), and (iii) the divisor method with rounding down (Jefferson, Hondt). For the first two methods the seat bias of each party turns out to be practically zero, whence on average no party is advantaged or disadvantaged. On the contrary, the third method exhibits noticeable seat biases in favor of larger parties. The theoretical findings are confirmed via empirical data from the German State of Bavaria, the Swiss Canton Solothurn, and the US House of Representatives.     

A radiographic assessment of pediatric fracture healing and time since injury

Past studies and pediatric bone physiology indicate that younger individuals may heal at a faster rate. Additionally, in adults upper limb fractures heal faster than lower limb fractures; this trend is expected for pediatric fractures. This study aims to evaluate and compare rates of fracture repair in children based on age and skeletal element. Six stages are used to describe the bone repair process in 294 radiographs of tibial and radial fractures from 107 infants and young children. Healing rates are examined using ANOVA and Welch's t-test with a 95% confidence interval. Results indicate that younger individuals spend less time at stage 1, suggesting a delay in the start of healing. Furthermore, forearm fractures heal faster than leg fractures at stages 2 and 3, suggesting a role in the osseous reaction of bone healing. The healing schedule presented may allow the timing of injuries to be estimated from radiographs.     

Avoiding overstating the strength of forensic evidence: Shrunk likelihood ratios/Bayes factors

When strength of forensic evidence is quantified using sample data and statistical models, a concern may be raised as to whether the output of a model overestimates the strength of evidence. This is particularly the case when the amount of sample data is small, and hence sampling variability is high. This concern is related to concern about precision. This paper describes, explores, and tests three procedures which shrink the value of the likelihood ratio or Bayes factor toward the neutral value of one. The procedures are: (1) a Bayesian procedure with uninformative priors, (2) use of empirical lower and upper bounds (ELUB), and (3) a novel form of regularized logistic regression. As a benchmark, they are compared with linear discriminant analysis, and in some instances with non-regularized logistic regression. The behaviours of the procedures are explored using Monte Carlo simulated data, and tested on real data from comparisons of voice recordings, face images, and glass fragments.     

The effect of education on police attitudes

This paper examines the effect of education on police attitudes. Although the literature seems to suggest that college-educated policemen will be more tolerant than their non-college counterparts, studies to date are highly ambiguous. The present study examines the attitudes of the members of one police department. Findings from the correlation analysis indicate that the educational level of the police does not significantly affect their attitudes. It is suggested that this is due, in part, to the vocational orientation of many police college students and to be pervasive effect of the police role