Policy Preferences and Political Distrust: A Comparison of Norway, Sweden and the United States

Many modern democracies have experienced a decrease in citizen support for government in recent decades. This article examines attitudes toward public policy as a plausible theoretical explanation for this phenomenon. The connection between public policy and support for the political regime has received considerable academic attention in the United States. Yet very little comparative work has examined whether citizens' policy preferences are related to a decline in diffuse support across different political systems. This article offers a clearer, more concise theoretical specification of the hypothesized relationship between public evaluations of policy outputs and support for the political regime. After specifying the theoretical concerns more succinctly, the article analyzes data from Norway, Sweden and the United States for the quarter century from the late 1960s to the early 1990s. The analysis reveals that shifts in evaluations of foreign policy and race-related policies help explain change in political trust for all three countries despite differences in the political systems. Moral issues, such as abortion, however, have no impact on political trust in any of the countries.     

Welfare State Issues in the Norwegian 1985 Election: Evidence from Aggregate and Survey Data1

In this article we investigate the impact of welfare state issues on the outcome of the Norwegian parliamentary election of 1985. With data from the NSD Commune Data Base we demonstrate that the gains of Labour were positively correlated with the peripheral location of the commune, the level of unemployment. the proportion of disabled pensioners, and a weak supply of health services. The results from a multivariate analysis of survey panel data show that the increase in Labour vote was strongest among those who said that the health issue was most decisive for their choice of party. Despite strong statistical controls some regional effects remain, and we speculate that regions also may carry a symbolic significance that is not captured by traditional aggregate indicators. Finally, we combine the two data sets to see if aggregate variables exhibit a direct contextual impact on individual behaviour. The results of this effort are mostly negative, a finding that invokes a renewed discussion of incompatibilities of micro and macro analysis.     

Subs and PSYOPs: The 1982 Swedish Submarine Intrusions

In the 1980s, the Soviet Union was believed to have targeted Sweden by sending submarines into Swedish archipelagos and naval bases, which forced Prime Minister Olof Palme to terminate his ambitious foreign policy. The ‘imminent Soviet threat’ changed Swedish public opinion drastically. Twenty years later, statements made by the responsible US and UK leaders, including then US Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger and then UK Navy Minister Keith Speed, show that these operations were run by US and British submarines testing Swedish coastal defences. Then US Secretary of Navy John Lehman and the Swedish Secretary of the Submarine Inquiry, Mathias Mossberg, indicate that these operations were also deception operations and psychological operations. Swedish former defence ministers have said that ‘it was wrong to point to the Soviet Union’, indicating that the more visible submarines may have been from the West. Ralf Lillbacka's article in Intelligence and National Security in 2010 does not take this information into consideration. The technical evidence we now have is proof of Western submarines operating in Swedish archipelagos. This evidence confirms the statements made by responsible leaders.