CAN SELF‐CONTROL CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER TIME? RETHINKING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SELF‐ AND SOCIAL CONTROL*

The primary goals of this study were to test the long‐term stability thesis of Gottfredson and Hirschi's (1990) general theory of crime and to examine the relationship between self‐control and social control over time. The data come from a field experiment where the “treatment” consisted of an intentional effort to improve the childrearing behaviors of a sample of caregivers whose children were at high risk of criminal behavior. Caregivers in the control condition were given no such training. The intervention occurred when all subjects were in the first grade (mean age: 6.2 years old), and we have measurements on self‐control and the social control/bond for each subject from grades 6 to 11 (mean ages: 12 to 17 years old). Both a hierarchical linear model and a second‐order latent growth model identified meaningful differences in the growth pattern of self‐control among individuals in the pooled sample and a difference in the growth parameters for self‐control and the social control/bond over time between the treatment and control groups. Both findings are inconsistent with Gottfredson and Hirschi's stability of self‐control hypothesis. The same patterns persisted when different analytic techniques and model specifications were applied, which suggests that the results are not an artifact of measurement error, model specification, or statistical methods. Structural equation modeling using the panel design of the data was better able to disentangle the long‐term relationship between self‐ and social control—a relationship that was found to be more dynamic than previously hypothesized.     

Preferential Trade Agreements and Trade Expectations Theory

Studies find that members of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are less likely to be involved in militarized conflict. An expectation of continuing amicable trade relations is among the factors linking PTAs to peace. However, this role of PTAs is difficult to test due to the problem of observational equivalence; PTAs correlate with trade levels and liberalization, factors also linked to peace. In this article, we isolate the impact of PTAs on trade expectations by distinguishing between signed agreements and those in force. A focus on signed but not-yet-in-force PTAs allows us to assess the correlation between agreements and peace before other pacifying, and therefore potentially confounding, elements emerge. Statistical tests spanning 1957 to 2000 demonstrate that signed PTAs are pacifying, while in-force agreements have no statistically significant impact when controlling for other factors linked to peace.     

Parentage of Hydatidiform Moles

We were presented with the STR (short tandem repeat) profiles from two separate paternity trios. Each trio consisted of a mother, an alleged father, and products of conception (POC) that contained a hydatidiform mole but no visible fetus. In both cases , antecedent pregnancies had followed alleged sexual assaults. Mole classification and pathogenesis are described in order to explain the analyses and statistical reasoning used in each case. One mole exhibited several loci with two different paternal alleles, indicating it was a dispermic (heterozygous) mole. Maternal decidua contaminated the POC, preventing the identification of paternal obligate alleles (POAs) at some loci. The other mole exhibited only one paternal allele/locus at all loci and no maternal alleles, indicating it was a diandric and diploid (homozygous) mole. In each case, traditional calculations were used to determine paternity indices (PIs) at loci that exhibited one paternal allele/locus. PIs at mole loci with two different paternal alleles/locus were calculated from formulas first used for child chimeras that are always dispermic. Combined paternity indices in both mole cases strongly supported the paternity of each suspect.     

对WTO秘书处地位和作用的重新定位

秘书处在许多不同的领域发挥了作用,例如贸易谈判、贸易协议的实施与管理、争端解决等方面。但令人担忧的是,秘书处的作用被弱化,变得越发唯唯诺诺,这会使WTO失去效率。“车轮”理论要求WTO从两轮机器变成四轮机器,发挥秘书处和总干事的最大功效。