The Fate of ‘Big Government’ in the United States:Not Over,But Undermined?

Big government in the United States has never been as expansiveas the big state abroad. Whatever its scope, there is little evidence that the days of big government are numbered. Among both the public and organized interests there is at once antagonism toward big government and yet consistent support for many of the protections it affords, including those provided by the U.S. federal government's largest, and sure to get larger, social programs. The most important story is not the threat of a reduced state, but rather itstransformation. Continuing attempts to privatize its administration could put much of the big state, including its social programs, in the hands of big business.     

内蒙古科尔沁非物质文化遗产法律保护的模式研究

内蒙古东部地区科尔沁非物质文化遗产保护的核心问题在于确立科学的保护模式和落实有力的保护措施,通过确认、立档、研究、保存、传承等措施,尊重历史的原汁原味生态环境及技能的价值;通过宣传、弘扬、传承和振兴等举措,重塑当代人的行为,建构保护科尔沁非物质文化遗产的科学模式。我们应以立法保护、行政保护和社会保护的系统工程,确立完整、规范的法律保护体系,特别是注意运用少数民族文化发展权,强化非物质文化遗产的地方性法规建设,在建设和振兴中国东北的过程中为科尔沁非物质文化遗产保护工作做出当代人的努力。     

Forecasting Recidivism in Mentally Ill Offenders Released from Prison

Little research has focused on assessing the risk of mentally ill offenders (MIOs) released from state prisons. Here we report findings for 333 mentally ill offenders released from Washington State prisons. Logistic regression identified sets of variables that forecasted felony and violent reconviction as accurately as state-of-the-art risk assessment instruments. Sums of simple recoded versions of these variables predicted reoffense as well as complex logistic regression equations. Five of these 9 variables were found to be relative protective factors. Findings are discussed in terms of the value of stock correctional variables in forecasting risk, the need to base actuarial risk assessments on local data, the importance of protective factors in assessing MIO risk, and the need for dynamic, situational, and clinical variables that can further sharpen predictive accuracy of emergent risk in the community.     

蒙古国“多支点”外交战略与大国关系

前苏联解体和冷战结束后 ,地处中俄之间的蒙古国放弃了长期奉行的“一边倒”外交政策 ,制定了均衡发展与中俄两大邻国关系。同时 ,发展与美日等西方大国关系以及立足亚太地区的“多支点”外交战略。目前 ,蒙古国与南北两个邻国建立了蒙中睦邻互信伙伴关系和蒙俄睦邻传统伙伴关系 ,与美国发展战略伙伴关系 ,与日本确立了综合性伙伴关系。蒙古积极发展与大国的均衡关系 ,其意义在于 ,保障国家的独立、安全和未来发展 ,扩大自身活动空间 ,提高其国际地位 ,而且利用与大国的均势平衡使其相互牵制 ,以便从中获取更多利益。     

Participation in a national,means‐tested school voucher program

We use data from a sample of applicants to a national means‐tested school voucher program and a national sample of the population eligible for the program to evaluate the factors leading families to use school vouchers. Our analysis divides the process of voucher usage into two distinct stages: initial application and subsequent take‐up. Using a nested logit model, we find that some factors, like religious affiliation and religious service attendance, affect both stages. Others, like mother's education, affect only one (application). Still others, like ethnicity, have opposite effects at the two stages. Compared to Whites, minorities are more likely to apply for vouchers, but less likely to take them when given the opportunity. © 2005 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

PUBLIC OPINION REACTION TO REPEATED EVENTS: Citizen Response to Multiple Supreme Court Abortion Decisions

While numerous works explores how single events or political actions affect public opinion, almost no research explores how this effect evolves with repeated actions. The Conditional Response Model holds that while elite actors can influence and polarize the public when they first act on an issue, subsequent action will not have this same effect. We challenge this model based on its depiction of psychological models of attitude formation and change. Instead of focusing on the number of times an actor has addressed an issue, we argue that the state of public opinion is the key to determining how the public will react to multiple elite actions over a long timeframe. We examine how the public reacted to multiple Supreme Court decisions on abortion. Our results suggest that the Conditional Response Model does a poor job of depicting public opinion and that actors are not limited in their influence by the number of previous actions on an issue.