Conditional Cash Transfers and Voting for Incumbents under Democratic Backsliding: The Case of Honduras's Bono 10,000

As democracies worldwide have reverted to competitive authoritarian regimes or full dictatorships, some autocrats have used clientelist policies to strengthen their positions of power. We contend that autocrats can weaponise conditional cash transfers (CCTs) to shore up electoral support under democratic backsliding. In this vein, we analyse the impact of Honduras's Bono 10,000, a discretionary CCT, on the electoral support for the incumbent National Party and opposition blocs between 2013 and 2017, an era marked by the erosion of democracy. Using two survey waves from the AmericasBarometer by the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), we show how the CCT boosted the electoral support for the National Party as democracy unravelled. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on how autocrats rely on carrots – not just sticks – to consolidate power.     

Party Polarization and the Business Cycle in the United States

A large literature has studied the trend of greaterpolarization between Democrats and Republicans in Congress.This paper empirically examines the extent to which inflationand unemployment explain cyclical movements ofpolarization over time. An informal application of thestandard Downsian spatial competition model of partiesgenerates the following relationships, ceteris paribus: (1)inflation should be associated with policy convergence, (2)unemployment should be associated with polarization, (3) theeffect of unemployment on polarization should be larger inmagnitude than the effect of inflation on convergence, and (4)the effect of unemployment on polarization should be strongerin the House than in the Senate. We estimate the relationshipbetween vote records and business cycle conditions over the1947–1999 period using a GLS model with varying lags. Ourresults are broadly consistent with these business cyclehypotheses of polarization, though greater support is found inHouse data than in Senate data.     

Chronicle of a Survival Foretold: How Protest Behavior Against Armed Actors Influenced Violence in the Colombian Civil War, 1988–2005

This article examines the circumstances under which civilians, using protests as a mechanism, alter the strategic use of violence by armed actors (rebels and state forces). By examining the civil war in Colombia between 1988 and 2005, this study finds that combatants decrease their attacks against the population when civilians protest against the enemy. Combatants interpret such demonstrations as costly signals of loyalty. Furthermore, when insurgents are the target of the protests, insurgents increase repression against civilians as rebels get stronger. In contrast, state forces (and paramilitaries) compensate for their weakness in the area by multiplying civilian victims. Both state forces and rebels, however, are likely to decrease violence against civilians when civilians protest against both parties in contested zones. In such contexts, armed actors are likely to refrain from retaliation because any violence might drive noncombatants toward the enemy.     

Neo-liberalism's New Gendered Market Citizens: The 'Civilizing' Dimension of Social Programmes in Chile

This article explores the reconfiguration of social citizenship, or 'market citizenship', underway in Chile, as one crucial dimension of the refashioning of state institutions along neo-liberal lines in Latin America. It focuses on the 'civilizing' dimension of social citizenship, as an instance of the state's involvement in the regulation of subordinate populations. Specifically, the article studies the case of new social policy aimed at poverty alleviation. Inspired by Michel Foucault's late work but moving beyond it, it examines institutional transformation as on-the-ground practices through which policies take effect and sees 'market citizenship' as emerging from the rearticulation of the efforts of myriad individuals located at different levels of government, 'civil society', and poor and working-class communities. In this process, state agents are translators on the one hand of official documents into instances of participatory learning and empowerment, and on the other of people's realities into instances of documentary categories of poverty. This cultural-political transformation of neo-liberal modernization in Chile and beyond is potentially radical, and we need to ask: to what extent will the new market terms of belonging in the national community, which increasingly permeate private and public actions and discourse, change the very material and cultural contexts in which people's lives and struggles are framed?     

Evaluation of the Simultaneous Analysis of Organic and Inorganic Gunshot Residues Within a Large Population Data Set Using Electrochemical Sensors*,†

The increasing demand for rapid methods to identify both inorganic and organic gunshot residues (IGSR and OGSR) makes electrochemical methods, an attractive screening tool to modernize current practice. Our research group has previously demonstrated that electrochemical screening of GSR samples delivers a simple, inexpensive, and sensitive analytical solution that is capable of detecting IGSR and OGSR in less than 10 min per sample. In this study, we expand our previous work by increasing the number of GSR markers and applying machine learning classifiers to the interpretation of a larger population data set. Utilizing bare screen-printed carbon electrodes, the detection and resolution of seven markers (IGSR; lead, antimony, and copper, and OGSR; nitroglycerin, 2,4-dinitrotoluene, diphenylamine, and ethyl centralite) was achieved with limits of detection (LODs) below 1 µg/mL. A large population data set was obtained from 395 authentic shooter samples and 350 background samples. Various statistical methods and machine learning algorithms, including critical thresholds (CT), naïve Bayes (NB), logistic regression (LR), and neural networks (NN), were utilized to calculate the performance and error rates. Neural networks proved to be the best predictor when assessing the dichotomous question of detection of GSR on the hands of shooter versus nonshooter groups. Accuracies for the studied population were 81.8 % (CT), 88.1% (NB), 94.7% (LR), and 95.4% (NN), respectively. The ability to detect both IGSR and OGSR simultaneously provides a selective testing platform for gunshot residues that can provide a powerful field-testing technique and assist with decisions in case management.     

Jurilinguistics: Ways Forward Beyond Law,Translation, and Discourse

International Journal for the Semiotics of Law - Revue internationale de Sémiotique juridique - This is the guest editors’ introductory paper to the special issue “Situating...     

‘Social Investment’ or Back to ‘Familism’: The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Family and Care Policies in Italy and Spain

Family policies have traditionally been weak in Southern Europe. In the last two decades, however, and following a ‘catching up’ course, Spain has created new family programmes and expanded existing ones. Meanwhile, the picture for Italy during the years preceding the crisis is more of a ‘frozen landscape’. However, the diverging paths of the two countries in terms of policy reform in the years preceding the crisis do not place them in substantially different positions. The economic crisis and the austerity measures that followed have aggravated the weaknesses of family and care policies in both countries.