An evaluation of some microeconomic consequences of a future oil embargo

In order to develop an energy policy designed to help insulate the economy against the effects of a future oil embargo, projections of the effects of an embargo are necessary. Past work has concentrated on the aggregate output loss from an embargo, but has not carefully considered other important effects. This paper examines two important effects. First, the most heavily damaged sectors are identified, showing the automobile industry to have by far the most significant damage. Second, a large part of the economic damage done by an embargo is shown to be due to a decline in the demand for output rather than as a direct consequence of reduced petroleum supplies. This finding is significant for two related policy reasons. First, it implies that even if policy makers could replace all of the embargoed oil, major economic disruptions could still result from an embargo. Second, policies designed to minimize demand disruptions can achieve significant benefits, at low cost, and should have a high priority in policy matters pertaining to embargoes.Financial support for this work was received from the Department of Energy, and this paper is a condensed version of a report sent to the DOE. Views expressed in this paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Department of Energy.     

Psychopathy in Youth: Pursuing Diagnostic Clarity

Psychopathy in youth has received increased recognition as a critical clinical construct for the evaluation and management of troubled adolescents (e.g., Frick, P. J. (1998). In Cooke, D. J., Forth, A. E., and Hare, R. D. (eds.), Psychopathy: Theory, Research and Implications for Society. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, MA, pp. 161–187; Lynam, D. R. (1998). J. Abnorm. Psychol., 107: 566–575). To date, clinical research has examined psychopathy simply as a global construct rather than focusing on its specific criteria. In addition, researchers have tended to utilize downward extensions of adult conceptualizations of psychopathy to understand this syndrome in youth. This study was designed to assist in clarifying the construct of psychopathy in youth from a fresh perspective via prototypical analysis. Psychologists from the Clinical Child Psychology Section of the American Psychological Association (i.e., Division 53; N = 511) rated the prototypicality of the psychopathy construct for both male and female youth. Factor analyses for both genders resulted in 2 dimensions that reflected both personality and behavioral components of the disorder. Prototypicality ratings revealed important adult-to-child and male-to-female differences. In addition, child psychologists' views of their effectiveness at treating psychopathy in youth was surveyed. Contrary to the prevailing pessimism, clinical child psychologists reported that children and adolescents made moderate gains in psychotherapy. These results provide a framework for clinical child psychologists in their evaluations and treatment of psychopathic youth.     

A Large-Scale Meta-Analysis Relating the Hare Measures of Psychopathy to Antisocial Conduct

The present meta-analysis integrated effect sizes from 95 non-overlapping studies (N=15,826) to summarize the relation between Hare Psychopathy Checklists and antisocial conduct. Whereas prior meta-analyses focused on specific subdomains of the literature, we used broad inclusion criteria, incorporating a diversity of samples, settings, methodologies, and outcomes in our analysis. Our broad perspective allowed us to identify general trends consistent across the entire literature and improved the power of our analyses. Results indicated that higher PCL Total, Factor 1 (F(1)), and Factor 2 (F(2)) scores were moderately associated with increased antisocial conduct. Study effect sizes were significantly moderated by the country in which the study was conducted, racial composition, gender composition, institutional setting, the type of information used to score psychopathy, and the independence of psychopathy and transgression assessments. However, multiple regression analyses indicated that the information used to assess psychopathy did not have a unique influence on effect sizes after accounting for the influence of other moderator variables. Furthermore, racial composition of the sample was related to the country in which the study was conducted, making it unclear whether one or both of these moderators influenced effect sizes. We provide potential explanations for the significant findings and discuss implications of the results for future research.     

Bleedings, purges, and vomits: Dr. Benjamin Rush's republican medicine, the bilious remitting yellow-fever epidemic of 1793, and the non-origin of the law of informed consent

To the consternation of many physicians, the modern law of informed consent imposes certain constraints on their actions, not least that they respect patients' decisions to redefine at will the scope of care. The consequences of this transfer of power are often a nuisance and occasionally fatal, but always a reflection of democracy's leveling march: Physicians now take orders rather than give them. However frustrating the modern preference for process over result might be, we should ask ourselves-before condemning the law's evolution-about the consequences for patients' health of a more radically democratic practice of medicine. This paper proposes to examine this question as framed by the life of Dr. Benjamin Rush, who, in addition to signing the Declaration of Independence, crafted a medical practice uniquely suited to the young Republic's presumed moral character: Self-aware sufferers would promptly identify their own maladies and courageously treat themselves. In the end, his enterprise was flawed because his democratic instincts misled not only his scientific inquiries (disease is complex, not simple) but also his practice recommendations (patients are scared, not intrepid). Reflection on Rush's failed project should give pause to those who lament the passing of paternalistic medicine, for the law's requirements, however onerous they might be, tolerably accommodate both patients' need for physicians' expertise and our democratic belief that consent is the fundamental precondition of all rule.