Conflict Expectations and the Paradox of Economic Coercion

Despite their increasing importance, there is little theoretical understanding of why nation-states initiate economic sanctions or what determines their success. These events are often explained away as "symbolic politics" driven completely by domestic-level factors. This article develops a simple game-theoretic model of economic coercion to show that both "senders" and "targets" of economic coercion incorporate expectations of future conflict as well as the short-run opportunity costs of coercion into their behavior. Conflict expectations have a paradoxical effect on coercion events. First, senders that anticipate frequent conflicts will be more willing to initiate economic coercion, even if such attempts are costly. Senders that anticipate few conflicts will not threaten sanctions unless they incur minimal costs and the target would suffer significantly. While a robust anticipation of future disputes might make the sender prefer a coercive strategy, it also reduces its ability to obtain concessions. Target states that anticipate frequent conflict with the sender will make fewer concessions. Ironically, a sender will obtain the most favorable distribution of payoffs when it cares the least about its reputation or the distribution of gains. These hypotheses are tested statistically, with the results strongly supporting the conflict expectations model.     

Prescriptive and Elicitive Approaches to Conflict Resolution: Examples from Papua New Guinea

Negotiation Journal -     

Isotope ratio mass spectrometry as a tool for forensic investigation (examples from recent studies).

The versatility of isotope ratio mass spectrometry is demonstrated by reference to diverse case studies. Variations in the natural isotopic composition of non-biological, organic materials are compared as a means by which samples may be associated or discriminated. These techniques may be used to augment or compliment conventional forensic methodologies. delta13C analysis was used to demonstrate that different masking tape had been recovered in two, apparently similar cases, involving the smuggling of money. Visually similar ecstasy tablets were compared by consideration of the delta13C and delta15N composition of MDMA extracted from the tablets. Although only a limited number of tablets were analysed, the isotopic similarity between two different seizures was sufficient to induce a guilty plea from a person suspected of possessing both. A combination of delta2H, delta13C, delta15N and delta18O together with GC-MS analyses were applied to small samples of seized heroin. Although GC-MS analysis indicated differences between the chemical composition of two of the heroin samples, isotopic analysis suggested similarities, which were confirmed by further delta2H, delta13C and delta18O isotopic analysis of the clingfilm in which the samples were wrapped.     

Drowning of a Friedreich's ataxia patient

We here report an unusual, apparently accidental death, in which weakness associated with a progressive neuromuscular disease, Friedreich's ataxia, apparently resulted in the drowning of the deceased. The possibility of neuromuscular disease as a rare cause of drownings should not be overlooked.     

Punishment and Paperwork: White-Collar Offenders Under Community Supervision

This article examines how changes in penal ideology may affect the experiences of white-collar offenders under community supervision. In-depth interviews with white-collar offenders on their experiences while under federal probation are used to examine how changes in criminal punishment have undermined the traditional reintegrative and rehabilitative goals of community supervision. The analysis suggests that shifts to a more managerial, actuarial model that seeks depersonalized efficiency has unintended consequences that delegitimatize the criminal justice system, and foster sentiments of degradation. Based on these findings, considerations for future research are discussed.     

End of an Era? Anti‐Americanism in the Australian Labor Party

Anti‐Americanism, sometimes called the “last acceptable prejudice”, is a common phenomenon in the modern era. This paper explores the ebb and flow of anti‐Americanism in the Australian Labor Party in the post‐Second World War period and argues that while at times it was reasonable or proportionate, at others such criticism became unreasonable, disproportionate and therefore prejudicial. When this occurs the Australia‐US alliance can become strained, the Australian electorate tends to become sceptical of the ALP's credentials on national security and the party's electoral prospects also tend to suffer. Nevertheless, following the brief leadership of the stridently anti‐American Mark Latham, such sentiment in the ALP has been widely discredited and is unlikely to emerge again in its prejudicial form for some time, marking the end of an era.