Long-range U.S. Manpower forecasts in retrospect: How accurate were we?

This paper compares and evaluates the accuracy of long-range occupational manpower forecasts made for 1980 in the early 1970s by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and by the author. The different assumptions and forecasting methodologies utilized are discussed, and the occupational forecasts are then compared to the actual 1980 employment data. The relative accuracy of the different sets of forecasts is assessed according to several different criteria, and the larger question of the usefulness of either set of forecasts is addressed. It is found that neither set of forecasts was clearly superior, that the accuracy of both sets of forecasts was generally poor, and that the projections for individual occupations were often so wide of the mark as to be of questionable usefulness for manpower planning and vocational guidance. The implications of these findings for manpower forecasting are discussed.     

Advance price announcements and antitrust policy

This paper analyzes the competitive significance of advance price announcements. In the model, advance price announcements are used by firms to communicate private information on demand or cost. By so sharing the information, the firms are able to set their prices at more profitable levels. When the advance price announcements resolve demand uncertainty, profits rise and consumer surplus falls. Interestingly, when the advance price announcements resolve cost uncertainty, both profits and consumer welfare rise. Finally, we examine U.S. antitrust policy regarding price announcements.     

What future for the policy sciences?

The term “policy sciences” refers both to a distinctive tradition within the policy movement and to the broader policy movement itself. While the generic use of this term is sure to persist, the community of policy scientists trained in the tradition founded by Harold Lasswell and Myres S. McDougal faces challenges to its sustainability as a distinctive tradition of the policy movement. To motivate open discussion and debate, this essay follows the logic of a problem-oriented analysis, and also includes personal reflections and anecdote, with the following objectives: It suggests that the policy sciences tradition faces challenges to its sustainability because of the simple arithmetic of generational turnover in university faculty. It explores six factors internal and external to the policy sciences community militating against sustainability. The essay then critiques three different roles the policy scientist might play in contemporary academia, and concludes with a discussion of alternatives that might enhance the sustainability of the policy sciences tradition, should sustainability indeed be a desired outcome.