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21.
Palatal suture fusion has seen little testing and/or application due in part to an inadequately described relationship to formal age ranges. This study presents a modified scoring method that examines fusion on samples of modern documented adult males and compares two Bayesian approaches to age estimation. In the first analysis, American and Portuguese collections were used to derive univariate and multivariate transition analysis (TA) parameters, which combined with an informative prior, estimated age in a sample of modern Americans and Portuguese. For the second analysis, a Bayesian multiple linear regression (BMLR) used indicator statuses as the independent variables with age as the dependent variable. Highest posterior density regions (HPDRs) and highest posterior density intervals (HDI) were calculated for a holdout sample. Final age estimates for the methods were tested for accuracy using cumulative binomial tests at 75% and 90% coverages. The HPDRs from multivariate TA captured age better for younger individuals, but consistently underaged. The cumulative binomial tests on the BMLR results indicated the prediction intervals performed as expected, and we show they are narrower (more precise) and/or more accurate than the corresponding HPDR. The modified method presented here formally links palatal suture obliteration to age using two different approaches, one of which (BMLR) is new to the aging literature. The BMLR provided results free from bias and more reasonable age ranges while maintaining accuracy. We present a look-up table and a free, simple R file for users to download and run their own estimates with BMLR.  相似文献   
22.
The U.S. electric power sector has experienced a substantial shift of the generation mix since the turn of the century, moving from heavy reliance on coal‐powered generation to one drawing more from natural gas and, more recently, renewables. This transition has been forged by a mix of macroeconomic factors (recession and recovery); technological breakthroughs (horizontal drilling coupled with hydraulic fracturing; improvements in natural gas plant efficiency); clean energy policies at federal, state, and local levels of government; and private sector demands for carbon‐free energy sources. These factors have combined to reduce carbon emissions from electric power generation substantially this century. In this article we examine the extent of this transition, its causes, as well as the distinct American institutional factors steering it, including energy and environmental federalism, electoral politics, and the political economy of clean energy policy enactment and resistance.  相似文献   
23.
Justice-involved youth have high rates of psychiatric diagnoses, and these youth are often placed out-of-home, although evidence identifies several negative implications of juvenile confinement, especially for youth with psychopathology. Furthermore, youth in the justice system may be processed differently based on gender. As males and females tend to manifest symptoms differently, the psychopathology of youth may act to moderate the relationship between gender and placement in the juvenile justice system. The present study used a large, diverse sample (n?=?9?851, 19.8?% female) to examine whether youth placed in various types of out-of-home facilities differed in terms of externalizing, internalizing, substance use, or comorbid disorders, and to determine the predictive value of mental health diagnoses in placement decisions. The moderation effect of psychopathology and substance use on the relationship between gender and placement also was explored. The results indicated that each type of disorder differed across placements, with internalizing being most prevalent in non-secure, and externalizing, comorbid, and substance use being most prevalent in secure settings. Mental health diagnoses improved the prediction of placement in each out-of-home placement beyond legal and demographic factors such that externalizing and substance use disorders decreased the likelihood of placement in non-secure settings, and internalizing, externalizing, and substance use disorders increased the likelihood of placement in secure and state-secure facilities. The relationship between internalizing pathology and placement in more secure facilities was moderated by externalizing pathology. The relationship between gender and placement was significantly moderated by mental health such that females with mental health diagnoses receive less secure placements. Implications for policymakers and practitioners are discussed, as well as implications for reforming juvenile justice within a developmental approach.  相似文献   
24.
It appeared that as 1977 dawned, the political climate in the United States might render multi-billion dollar arms sales into unstable regions a thing of the past. Jimmy Carter triumphed in the presidential election of November 1976 on a popular platform of arms control and the introduction of human rights considerations into American foreign policy. His transition from that idealistic candidate to the president who agreed to sell Iran a fleet of highly advanced AWACS aircraft, as part of a record breaking $5.7 billion arms package, is therefore outwardly confusing. Yet, when examining the entrenched policy path that Carter inherited regarding arming Iran, and the larger needs of Cold War containment, the logic of Carter’s decisions essentially to betray his own policies in this case becomes clear.  相似文献   
25.
Centering labor in the land grab debate   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Placing labor at the center of the global ‘land-grab’ debate helps sharpen critical insights at two scales. At the scale of agricultural enterprises, a labor perspective highlights the jobs generated, and the rewards received, by people who work in and around large farms. This approach guides my critical reading of the report prepared by a World Bank team that argues for large-scale land acquisition as a way to reduce poverty. Using data from within the report itself, I show why poverty reduction is a very unlikely result. I develop the argument further by drawing on research in colonial and contemporary Indonesia, where large-scale plantations and associated smallholder contract schemes have a long history. A labor perspective is also relevant at the national and transnational scale, where it highlights the predicament of people whose labor is not needed by the global capitalist system. In much of the global South, the anticipated transition from the farm to factory has not taken place and education offers no solution, as vast numbers of educated people are unemployed. Unless vast numbers of jobs are created, or a global basic income grant is devised to redistribute the wealth generated in highly productive but labor-displacing ventures, any program that robs rural people of their foothold on the land must be firmly rejected.  相似文献   
26.
His most recent books include the third edition of Business, Government, and the Public, The Future of Business Regulation,and Public Policy Toward Corporate Takeovers.  相似文献   
27.
28.
This study is one of the very few, and the most extensive to date, which has examined deceptive behavior in a real-life, high-stakes setting. The behavior of 16 suspects in their police interviews has been analyzed. Clips of video footage have been selected where other sources (reliable witness statements and forensic evidence) provide evidence that the suspect lied or told the truth. Truthful and deceptive behaviors were compared. The suspects blinked less frequently and made longer pauses during deceptive clips than during truthful clips. Eye contact was maintained equally for deceptive and truthful clips. These findings negate the popular belief amongst both laypersons and professional lie detectors (such as the police) that liars behave nervously by fidgeting and avoiding eye contact. However, large individual differences were present.  相似文献   
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30.
A single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) multiplex has been developed to analyse highly degraded and low copy number (LCN) DNA template, i.e. <100 pg, for scenarios including mass disaster identification. The multiplex consists of 20 autosomal non-coding loci plus Amelogenin for sex determination, amplified in a single tube PCR reaction and visualised on the Applied Biosystems 3100 capillary electrophoresis (CE) system. Allele-specific primers tailed with shared universal tag sequences were designed to speed multiplex design and balance the amplification efficiencies of all loci through the use of a single reverse and two differentially labelled allele denoting forward universal primers. As the multiplex is intended for use with samples too degraded for conventional profiling, a computer program was specifically developed to aid interpretation. Critical factors taken into account by the software include empirically determined extremes of heterozygous imbalance (Hb) and the drop-out threshold (Ht) defined as the maximum peak height of a surviving heterozygous allele, where its partner may have dropped out. The discrimination power of the system is estimated at 1 in 4.5 million, using a White Caucasian population database. Comparisons using artificially degraded samples profiled with both the SNP multiplex and AMPFISTR SGM plus (Applied Biosystems) demonstrated a greater likelihood of obtaining a profile using SNPs for certain sample types. Saliva stains degraded for 147 days generated an 81% complete SNP profile whilst short tandem repeats (STRs) were only 18% complete; similarly blood degraded for 243 days produced full SNP profiles but only 9% with STRs. Reproducibility studies showed concordance between SNP profiles for different sample types, such as blood, saliva, semen and hairs, for the same individual, both within and between different DNA extracts.  相似文献   
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