Forensic Document Examiners’ Skill in Distinguishing Between Natural and Disguised Handwriting Behaviors

Abstract: Disguised handwriting is problematic for forensic document examiners (FDEs) and attracts higher misleading and inconclusive rates on authorship opinions than does genuine writing (Found B, Rogers D, International Graphonomics Society, 2005). There are currently no published empirical data on FDEs’ expertise in distinguishing between natural and disguised writing behavior. This paper reports on the skill of FDEs for determining the writing process of 140 pairs of natural and disguised writings and compares their results with those of a control group of laypeople. A significant difference was found between the examiner and lay group. FDEs’ expertise is characterized by their conservatism, where FDEs express a higher proportion of inconclusive opinions (23.1% for FDEs compared to 8.4% for the control group). This leads to the FDEs expressing a smaller percentage of misleading responses when calling writings as either naturally written or disguised (4.3% for FDEs compared with 12.2% for the control group).     

The Effect of IMF Programmes on Economic Growth in Low Income Countries: An Empirical Analysis

Using an LIC-specific participation model, we adopt a propensity score matching (PSM) methodology to compare economic growth performance in countries with and without IMF programmes over the period 1989–2008. Concessional programmes are found to have had a generally positive effect on economic growth for up to two years after agreements were signed. The effects are contingent on other factors including overall initial economic conditions, recent prior growth performance, aid dependency, debt, IMF resources, recent history of IMF engagement and time period. We examine the implications of the results as the IMF considers how best to support the Sustainable Development Goals.     

Political Inequalities Start at Home: Parents,Children, and the Socialization of Civic Infrastructure Online

We use a two-wave panel survey of parent-child dyads in the United States to connect online democratic divides with the unequal socialization of political interest in the home. We test a model connecting parent socioeconomic status to the amount of political communication in the home and the subsequent development of youth political interest over the course of an election cycle. We develop the theoretical concept of online civic infrastructure to foreground how interest-driven social media use in adolescence may shape future opportunities for civic and political engagement by building network connections and opening up flows of communication that carry news, political information, and opportunities for mobilization.     

What Is the Hidden Figure of Delinquency in Girls? Scaling Up From Police Charges to Self-Reports

Research on males shows discrepancies between official records and self-reports of delinquency, thus creating a scaling-up factor. Comparable information for girls is still needed. We investigated discrepancies (scaling up factors) from official records to self-reports in a large sample of girls between ages 12 and 17 (N = 2,450). On average there were three self-reported juvenile female offenders for every individual charged by the police, and for every police charge there were four offenses that were committed. The scaling-up factor was highest in early adolescence, indicating that female offenders at a young age were more likely to stay undetected by the police. The scaling-up factor was significantly lower for African American than white girls: a higher proportion of African American delinquent girls were charged by the police. Racial differences in scaling up were significant only for prevalence, not for frequency of offending. Knowledge about scaling-up factors is important for the design and implementation of intervention programs. We discuss racial differences, implications for justice administration, and practical implications for intervention science.     

Social Capital and Bystander Behavior in Bullying: Internalizing Problems as a Barrier to Prosocial Intervention

Theory and research suggests that individuals with greater social capital (i.e., resources and benefits gained from relationships, experiences, and social interactions) may be more likely to be active, prosocial bystanders in bullying situations. Therefore, the goal of the current study was to examine the association of social capital (social support and social skills) with prosocial bystander behavior, and the role of internalizing problems as a potential barrier to this relation among 299 students (45.8% girls, 95% White) in sixth, seventh, and eighth grades. Results indicate a positive relation between social capital and prosocial bystander behavior. In addition, internalizing problems were a significant risk factor that may hinder youth—particularly girls—from engaging in defending behavior. Prosocial bystanders are an essential component to prevent and reduce bullying and further research is needed to better understand how to foster prosocial behavior in bullying situations, perhaps by utilizing social capital, related to school bullying.     

Adolescent Caffeine Consumption and Self-Reported Violence and Conduct Disorder

Caffeine is the most widely used psychoactive substance in the world and currently the only one legally available to children and adolescents. The sale and use of caffeinated beverages has increased markedly among adolescents during the last decade. However, research on caffeine use and behaviors among adolescents is scarce. We investigate the relationship between adolescent caffeine use and self-reported violent behaviors and conduct disorders in a population-based cross-sectional sample of 3,747 10th grade students (15–16 years of age, 50.2 % girls) who were enrolled in the Icelandic national education system during February 2012. Through a series of multiple regression models, while controlling for background factors, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder symptoms and current medication and peer delinquency, and including measures on substance use, our findings show robust additive explanatory power of caffeine for both violent behaviors and conduct disorders. In addition, the association of caffeine to the outcomes is significantly stronger for girls than boys for both violent behaviors and conduct disorders. Future studies are needed to examine to what extent, if at all, these relationships are causal. Indication of causal connections between caffeine consumption and negative outcomes such as those reported here would call into question the acceptability of current policies concerning the availability of caffeine to adolescents and the targeting of adolescence in the marketing of caffeine products.     

Resisting the New State: Peasants and Pastoralists in Iran, 1921-41

This article examines the responses of the rural poor, both settled peasants and pastoral nomads, to the upheavals unleashed in the Iranian countryside by Riza Shah's adoption of a programme of authoritarian state-building and rapid modernization. The article shows how, contrary to the conventional assumptions of rural passivity held by both Western scholarship and Iranian nationalism, peasant and nomad communities in fact generated a variety of active responses to the regime's initiatives, both on their own account and in combination with other social forces, aimed at defending themselves and resisting unfavourable changes in their relations with landlords and state officials.     

Contemporary functions of ilobolo (bridewealth) in urban South African Zulu society

The functions and meanings of bridewealth in African societies have been analysed extensively in anthropological and historical studies. Although bridewealth remains widely practised in Southern Africa, few studies have examined the custom in a contemporary context. This paper addresses the paucity of research by focusing on South African Zulu society where, among all cultural traditions, the payment of bridewealth (ilobolo) continues to be one of the most salient. On the basis of recent qualitative research data collected in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, we argue that ilobolo practices among urban Zulu people are multifaceted and its contemporary functions debated and contested. However, there is also broad consensus about the obligation to uphold the custom based on a complex web of cultural and spiritual motives, socio-economic considerations and collectivist identity politics.     

The implementation of IMF programs: A conceptual framework

IMF supported programs have conventionally been assessed by examining their effects on intermediate variables and final outcomes. More recently greater attention has been paid to their implementation, on the assumption that in order to work programs need to be implemented. Empirical studies have begun to include political economy variables in an attempt to explain implementation. They have used the concept of ‘ownership’ to provide a theoretical foundation. This paper provides an alternative and simple conceptual framework based on the marginal benefits and costs of implementation. It goes on to discuss policies that might be expected to improve implementation based on this framework.

Turkey and the IMF: A case study in the political economy of policy implementation

Research into IMF program implementation has usually taken the form of large sample regression analyses. A more detailed explanation is offered in this paper through a case study of program implementation in Turkey between 1999 and 2004. Our research is based on a series of in-depth interviews with policy makers, program negotiators, bureaucrats, interest groups and IMF personnel. Our results reinforce hypotheses that emerge from the theory of implementation and the large sample econometric work, but they also offer new and enhanced explanations. Program implementation depends on a range of factors which interact with one another. These include domestic political economy factors, such as the importance of special interest groups, political cohesiveness and program ownership by the government and the IMF, but also other idiosyncratic factors such as, in the case of Turkey, the existence of a crisis, the desire to join the EU and the role of influential technocrats. Our research has implications for the design of IMF programs.