Race,Neighborhood Disadvantage,and Violence Among Persons with Mental Disorders: The Importance of Contextual Measurement

The individualistic fallacy (i.e., the fallacy of assuming that individual-level outcomes can be explained exclusively in terms of individual-level characteristics) is a problem with most research on violence, and is particularly problematic in research on mental disorder and violence. This article illustrates the importance of measuring community context by showing that race is not an important predictor of violence among persons with mental disorders when neighborhood disadvantage is controlled statistically. More generally, these results suggest that researchers run the risk of perpetuating the individualistic fallacy in studies of violence by persons with mental disorders when they use individual-level risk factors as predictors, but do not control for community context.     

A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

On Correcting Biases in Self-Reports of Age at First Substance Use with Repeated Cross-Section Analysis

Household survey data on age at first use of alcohol, tobacco, marijuana,and hard drugs can be biased due to sample selection and inaccuraterecall. One potential concern is attrition, whereby individuals who getinvolved with substance use at an early age become increasingly less likelyto be surveyed in successive years. A comparison of data from the NationalHousehold Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) with data from a longitudinal studysuggested that attrition might have caused substantially less bias thandid forward telescoping, the inflating of age at first useover time. The evidence of forward telescoping was particularly pronouncedwith respect to age at first use of alcohol. This paper presents a procedurefor correcting the distribution of age at first use for forward telescoping(but not attrition) by viewing a portion of the NHSDA data collected insuccessive years as constituting a cohort study. Results are presented fromapplying this procedure with NHSDA data collected from 1982 to 1995 forrespondents born 1968–1973. The findings suggest that preventionprograms need to be introduced at an earlier age than would be indicatedby uncorrected retrospective data. Other implications are alsohighlighted.     

Governance and order-making in Central Asia: from illiberalism to post-liberalism?

ABSTRACT

This forum brings together five different angles on the question as to whether and how political regimes and forms of order-making can and should be researched through the concept of ‘illiberalism’. The discussion engages critically with this and associated concepts, such as ‘illiberal peace’ and ‘authoritarian conflict management’, which have been developed out of the Central Asian / Eurasian context and discussed in their wider global ramifications and, within the framing of ‘illiberal peace’, explored in various contexts in and beyond Central Asia. While further assessing the relevance and implications of this approach, this forum also attempts to think beyond ‘illiberalism’ by introducing and discussing the idea of ‘post-liberalism’. This way, the authors engage in an exchange that serves to probe both concepts and to determine their strengths and limitations when it comes to analysing and understanding politics and societal processes in Central Asia.     

Rejoinder to comments by Frederick Kaijage,Oswald Masebo,and Innocent Pikirayi on the keynote speech, ‘writing history: flow and blockage in the circulation of knowledge’

ABSTRACT

Rejoinder to comments by Frederick Kaijage, Oswald Masebo, and Innocent Pikirayi on the keynote speech, ‘Writing History: Flow and Blockage in the Circulation of Knowledge’     

The “dark figure” and composite indexes of crime: Some empirical explorations of alternative data sources

This paper compares composite crime indexes across two alternative data sources—the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the National Crime Survey (NCS). A variety of indexes are constructed based on weights derived from Sellin and Wolfgang's “seriousness” scale. The results reveal that indexes weighted by offense seriousness are not very highly correlated across data sources for a sample of twenty-six American cities. The substantive importance of the discrepancies between UCR and NCS estimates is illustrated by examining the ecological correlates of weighted crime rates for the twenty-six city sample and by assessing changes in weighted crime rates at the national level for the 1973-81 period. The results also reveal that if estimates of homecide are included in the composite indexes by supplementing the NCS data with data from the Center for Health Statistics, then under certain weighting conditions the correlations across data sources are nearly perfect. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of this latter finding for the measurement of overall levels of criminal activity and for the scaling of the relative gravity of different offenses.