The armed struggle and underground intelligence: An overview

This comparative analysis of the dynamics of underground, revolutionary intelligence is based on a generation of analytical association with recent and continuing armed struggles. It is a first effort to depict the unconventional nature of intelligence in an illicit and covert world that is not merely the mirror image of orthodox practice. It is mainly a discussion of strategic and tactical aspects, their structure, focus, and role, as well as special factors such as counterintelligence and heresy, prisoners and foreign contacts. Underground, these are in great part shaped by the aspirations and ideals of the rebels as well as by the special conditions that assure inefficiency in return for cover. The article is, then, a preliminary, general analysis of a largely neglected aspect of unconventional conflict.     

Perceptions of the “Arab Spring” Within the Salafi-Jihadi Movement

This article provides a detailed examination of how the Salafi-jihadi movement perceives the “Arab Spring” revolutionary events. Although Western scholars almost unanimously agree that these events will have an enormous impact on Al Qaeda and other groups that share its ideology, the voice of the jihadis has not been examined in detail. This article addresses this critical gap in the literature through an analysis of 101 significant documents produced by jihadi thinkers within a year following the movement's very first statement on the uprising in Tunisia. These include statements released by jihadi spokesmen, interviews with the movement's intellectual leaders, and discussions on jihadi Web forums. The article concludes that Al Qaeda and the jihadi movement largely believe that the uprisings provide them a great deal of new opportunities, and outlines the movement's developing strategy to capitalize on rapidly changing events on the ground.     

An introduction to judicial fact-finding

This article seeks to provide an introduction as to how judges determine facts. It draws on material across a range of jurisdictions as to how judges themselves have described what they do and what they ought to do. It explores what factors judges take into account when deciding whether the evidence of a witness is credible. It examines the difference between recollection and reconstruction of events by witnesses and considers how judges draw inferences from primary facts. The importance of documentary evidence, expert evidence, judicial notice and the giving of reasons in the fact-finding process are also explored.     

Book Reviews

Jeffrey T. Richelson and Desmond Ball, The Ties that Bind: Intelligence Cooperation between the UKUSA Countries (London: George Allen &; Unwin 1986). Pp. xviii + 402. £19.95.

Giuseppe De Lutiis, Storia dei Servizi Segreti in Italia (Rome: Editori Riuniti, 1985). Pp. 313, Lire 16,500.

Scott D. Breckenridge, The CIA and the U.S. Intelligence System (Boulder, CO; Westview Press, Frederick A. Praeger). Pp. 364.

Phillip Thurmond Smith, Policing Victorian London. Political Policing, Public Order, and the London Metropolitan Police (Westport, CT and London: Greenwood Press, 1985). Pp. x + 230. £35.

Charles Perrow, Normal Accidents: Living with High‐Risk Technologies (New York: Basic Books, 1984). Pp. 386. $10.95.     

External Validity in Policy Evaluations That Choose Sites Purposively

Evaluations of the impact of social programs are often carried out in multiple sites, such as school districts, housing authorities, local TANF offices, or One‐Stop Career Centers. Most evaluations select sites purposively following a process that is nonrandom. Unfortunately, purposive site selection can produce a sample of sites that is not representative of the population of interest for the program. In this paper, we propose a conceptual model of purposive site selection. We begin with the proposition that a purposive sample of sites can usefully be conceptualized as a random sample of sites from some well‐defined population, for which the sampling probabilities are unknown and vary across sites. This proposition allows us to derive a formal, yet intuitive, mathematical expression for the bias in the pooled impact estimate when sites are selected purposively. This formula helps us to better understand the consequences of selecting sites purposively, and the factors that contribute to the bias. Additional research is needed to obtain evidence on how large the bias tends to be in actual studies that select sites purposively, and to develop methods to increase the external validity of these studies. © 2012 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Concepts and possibilities in forensic intelligence

Forensic intelligence can be viewed as comprising two parts, one directly concerning intelligence delivery in forensic casework, the other considering performance aspects of forensic work, loosely termed here as business intelligence. Forensic casework can be viewed as processes that produce an intelligence product useful to police investigations. Traditionally, forensic intelligence production has been confined to discipline-specific activity. This paper examines the concepts, processes and intelligence products delivered in forensic casework, the information repositories available from forensic examinations, and ways to produce within- and across-discipline casework correlations by using information technology to capitalise on the information sets available. Such analysis presents opportunities to improve forensic intelligence services as well as challenges for technical solutions to deliver appropriate data-mining capabilities for available information sets, such as digital photographs. Business intelligence refers primarily to examination of efficiency and effectiveness of forensic service delivery. This paper discusses measures of forensic activity and their relationship to crime outcomes as a measure of forensic effectiveness.     

Distributions of genetic markers in United States populations: I. Blood group and secretor systems

All published and unpublished population frequency data that could be located for U.S. populations are tabulated and presented for the blood group and secretor systems. Results obtained by combining data for comparable racial/ethnic groups are also presented. The results obtained with combined data may give better information on frequencies for the U.S. population at large than is obtainable from studies conducted in restricted geographic areas.