Does Voting by Mail Increase Participation? Using Matching to Analyze a Natural Experiment

Megan Mullin Department of Political Science, Temple University, 408 Gladfelter Hall (025-22), 1115 West Berks Street, Philadelphia, PA 19122-6089 e-mail: mmullin{at}temple.edu (corresponding author) Would holding elections by mail increase voter turnout? Manyelectoral reform advocates predict that mail ballot electionswill boost participation, basing their prediction on the highturnout rate among absentee voters and on the rise in voterturnout after Oregon switched to voting by mail. However, selectionproblems inherent to studies of absentee voters and Oregon giveus important reasons to doubt whether their results would extendto more general applications of voting by mail. In this paper,we isolate the effects of voting in mail ballot elections bytaking advantage of a natural experiment in which voters areassigned in a nearly random process to cast their ballots bymail. We use matching methods to ensure that, in our analysis,the demographic characteristics of these voters mirror thoseof polling-place voters who take part in the same elections.Drawing on data from a large sample of California counties intwo general elections, we find that voting by mail does notdeliver on the promise of greater participation in general elections.In fact, voters who are assigned to vote by mail turn out atlower rates than those who are sent to a polling place. Analysisof a sample of local special elections, by contrast, indicatesthat voting by mail can increase turnout in these otherwiselow-participation contests. Authors' note: We are grateful to the Haynes Foundation forsupporting this project, Karin MacDonald for bringing mail ballotprecincts to our attention, Anup Pradhan for providing criticaldata, Shawn Treier for his helpful comments on an earlier draft,and Sam Deddeh and Mike Binder for data entry assistance.     

Does fraud trump partisanship? The impact of contentious elections on voter confidence

Fraudulent elections can reduce citizen trust in elections and other political institutions. But what about the impact of contentious elections that resolve successfully, leading to democratizing change? Do national movements toward democracy trump individual experiences with electoral manipulation? Using public opinion survey data collected before and after the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, we evaluate changes in voter confidence in electoral practices, political institutions, and democracy. Although national trends show increased voter confidence overall, subnational variation suggests pervasive partisan differences in opinions about election quality and institutional confidence. Remarkably, we find that direct exposure to fraud matters far less than anticipated; voters who were personally exposed to fraud felt no more or less confident than their co-partisans. We show that partisanship and the national electoral context may interact in ways that complicate the effects of democratizing elections, suggesting important avenues for future research.     

Steering Agencies with Short-Term Authorizations

After World War II, the U.S. Congress began a process of engaging in what David Rosenbloom refers to as Congress-centered public administration. In this article, the author argues that the use of short-term authorizations by Congress facilitates congressional oversight and co-management of public programs. Using data from three case studies, the author shows that Congress is able to systematically, on a regularized basis, shape the overall goals, structures, and decision rules that govern agency activities. It can also promote research and analysis that will inform the reauthorization of a program by funding studies and requiring specific reports to be produced. The agencies are, in turn, able to implement the new legislative requirements over a given timeframe—typically four to six years—and do so in an environment that is relatively free from other congressional changes to the legislation underlying the program in question. During this time, the agency and Congress are able to determine what works and what does not work and to formulate changes that should be considered in the next reauthorization legislation.     

Will the Digital Revolution Revolutionize Development? Drawing Together the Debate

This concluding article returns to the broad question that motivates this special issue ofStudies in Comparative International Development: Will the Digital Revolution constitute a revolution in development? In addressing this issue, we explore a number of common themes emphasized by the different contributions: the future of the North-South divide, the role of the state in promoting digital development, the transferability and adaptability of specific information and communication technologies, the challenges and potential benefits of controlling digital information, and the developmental effects of digitally enabled communities. We argue that the Digital Revolution's ultimate impact on development will depend on several key variables, including the extent to which these technologies foster within-country linkages among different sectors and socioeconomic classes; the degree to which new technological applications may be customized or transformed to advance local development; and the outcome of political contests between organized interests that are promoting different ways of organizing and governing the global digital economy. While it is difficult to fully assess a transformation while living in the midst of it, research on the social, political, and economic implications of the Digital Revolution will constitute an important agenda for development scholars in the years to come.     

How Do Public Goods Providers Play Public Goods Games?

We study how policymakers play public goods games, and how their behavior compares to the typical subjects we study, by conducting parallel experiments on college undergraduates and American state legislators. We find that the legislators play public goods games more cooperatively and more consistently than the undergraduates. Legislators are also less responsive to treatments that involve social elements but are more likely to respond to additional information that they receive. Further, legislators' fixed characteristics explain much of the variation in how legislators play the game. We discuss the implications of these findings for understanding how institutions affect the provision of public goods.     

Do Donors Penalize Nonprofit Organizations with Accumulated Wealth?

Does current accumulated wealth by nonprofit organizations influence contributions from individuals? Existing research demonstrates that financial reserves aid program continuity during economic downturns. Yet donors, charity watchdogs, and policy makers voice concern about accumulated wealth in nonprofits. This empirical analysis examines whether the expected negative relationship occurs when donors perceive accumulated wealth as excessive. The results support the conclusion that future contributions are negatively affected when wealth levels are deemed excessive. Nonprofit managers concerned that accumulated wealth will diminish donations should consider financial strategies that will allow their organizations to build modest—but not excessive—reserves.     

Inactive by Design? Neighborhood Design and Political Participation

Critics have long denounced the design of suburban communities for fostering political apathy. We disaggregate the concept of suburban design into four distinct attributes of neighborhoods. We then use tract-level Census data, the Social Capital Community Benchmark Survey, and multilevel models to measure the relationship between these design features and political participation. Certain design aspects common in suburban neighborhoods are powerful predictors of reduced political activity, illustrating a potential link between neighborhood design and politics. Yet low-density environments appear to facilitate some types of participation. Suburban designs vary, and so do their likely impacts on political participation.