Estimating Size of Drug Users in Macau: an Open Population Capture-Recapture Model with Data Augmentation Using Public Registration Data

Successful drug intervention policies rely on timely assessment of size of drug users and close monitoring of trend regarding drug abuse. Taking advantage of data collected by the Central Registration System for Drug Abusers of Macau (CRSDAM), this study applied open population capture-recapture models with data augmentation techniques to estimate the size of drug users and to identify influential factors on capture and survival probabilities from 2009 to 2014. In particular, the data augmentation technique was used to address missing data issues. The estimated size of drug users has been slowly declining from 2442 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 2042–2914) in 2009 to 807 (95% BCI 654–1000) in 2014 with a small fluctuation of 2251 (95% BIC 1950–2599) in 2011, and the estimated cumulative size of drug users is 6199 (95% BCI 5651–6873), which is correspondent to a prevalence rate of 1.20% of the current population aged 15 to 54. Although the estimated sizes of total, narcotic, and other drug users were declining, the size of stimulant users might be increasing. People who used narcotics as their first drug and who were reported by governmental agencies were more likely to stay in the registration system, while those who used needle injection were less likely to stay. Governmental agencies, higher education, and using needle injection were negatively associated with the probability of capture over time, while using narcotics as the first drug was positively associated with it.     

担保物权人物上代位权实现程序的建构

《物权法》第174条虽规定了担保物权的物上代位性,但现行法未建立一套合理可行的担保物权人据以实现物上代位权的程序。未来我国编纂民法典时应摒弃担保物权延续说,改采法定债权质权说,明确规定担保财产灭失、毁损或被征收而产生代位物请求权时,担保物权人依法享有针对这些请求权的法定债权质权;同时,应明确规定担保人的通知义务以及代位物给付义务人(即第三债务人)查询登记簿、在给付代位物前取得担保物权人同意的义务。代位物给付义务人违反义务,侵害物上代位权而给担保物权人造成损失的,应当承担侵权赔偿责任。     

Multilevel public funding for small business innovation: a review of US state SBIR match programs

US State governments invest in early-stage innovative activity as an economic development strategy. Nevertheless, attention directed at the public sector’s role in this capacity has been placed on federal policy actions overlooking the growing role of states. The primary aims of this paper are two-fold: (1) to articulate the motivations for multilevel public support for small business innovative activity, placing emphasis on state level incentives directed towards entrepreneurial activity; and (2) to empirically evaluate the State Match Phase I (SMP-I) program. The SMP-I program is a diffuse state level policy designed to complement the federal Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program by offering noncompetitive matching funds to the state’s successful SBIR Phase I recipients. This offers an opportunity to examine the marginal impact of public R&D given the state intervention. This paper employs a state and year fixed effects model and considers two outcome variables—SBIR Phase II success rates and SBIR Phase I application activity. To account for industrial heterogeneity, the data are stratified by the federal mission agencies. Results from the empirical analysis indicate that the state match increases the Phase II success rates for firms participating in the National Science Foundation SBIR program.     

Thoreau in the 21<Superscript>st</Superscript> Century

Laura Dassow Walls’s superb biography of Henry David Thoreau is the most important study of this author thus far in the twenty-first century. Beautifully written, and packed with rich detail and subtle interpretation, Walls’s book teaches us much that is new about Thoreau and, furthermore, prompts us to think more deeply about and reassess this complex person and challenging writer—a writer whose range and mass of published and unpublished work, produced during his all too brief life (he died at age 44), is astounding. Thoreau is an inspiring radical voice for personal change and social reform, yet he is, at the same time, extremely self-centered and highly skeptical about the capacity of readers and audiences to bring about the transformations that he advocates.     

对新媒体环境下高校隐性思想政治教育的思考

当前,新媒体己成为大学生学习、生活须臾不可分割的一部分.相对于传统的显现思想政治教育方式,隐性思想政治教育具有教育方式隐蔽、教育时空开放、教育过程持久等独特优越性.新媒体与高校隐性思想政治政治教育极强的关联性,不仅体现在新媒体作为一把“双刃剑”为高校隐性思想政治教育带来新的机遇和挑战,也体现在本身应用于高校隐性思想政治教育的必然性.在新媒体环境下,从完善高校隐性思想政治教育的考评体系着手,依靠思想政治教育工作者和大学生共同努力,并且依托新媒体唱响思想政治教育的主旋律是当前应对新媒体对隐性思想政治教育的挑战提出的几点措施.