印度尼西亚财政政策及其影响

序言印度尼西亚的财政金融形势向来没有朝着好的方向发展,相反的,最近是更恶化了。这种情况是早为公众和政府所理解和承认的事实。还需要认真加以探讨的则是政府对财政困难的基本原因及其出路的意见。某些负责的政府官员和社会上的某些人士,更偏重于从货币流通量的发展情况这个角度来观察财政形势。用这种方法,他们甚至得出结论说:向来就是政府方面造成通货膨涨,所以国家预算必须压     

南越土地改革的进展

自从1954年7月日内瓦协定订立之后,南越吴庭艶政府把土地改革存在关键性的问题,下了绝大的决心,付诸实施,特别是在土地转移和定居这两个方面。在实施土改计划上,美国的经济和技术援助起了重要的作用。土改计划的初步阶段,现在将近完成,減租和稳定佃期的计划,现在正在继续施行,并普及到全国佃农的3/4,而土地转移计划预     

馬来亚橡膠問題

本文选譯自L.A.密尔斯著“馬来亚政治經济評述”一書第八章,標題为“天然橡胶和人造橡胶”。但全文主要內容是关于馬来亚天然橡胶的生产問題,因此改用現在標題。作者对于馬来亚战后以来天然橡胶的生产問題作了詳尽的論述,材料比較丰富,可供研究工作者参考。     

泰国大米輸出之研究

英格兰姆在1951—52年,曾以“社会科学研究基金”名义,前往泰国进行調查工作。从泰国返美后,曾任美国北卡罗里那大学經济学教授。本文譯自著者:“1850年后泰国經济的变革”一書第三章,該章主要是分析1850至1950年以来泰国大米生产及輸出的情况。从文章內容可看出泰国經济,特別是农业生产的殖民地性和对外国資本的依賴性。     

馬来亞华僑近况(續完)

光復馬来亚1945年9月初,英国光复部队抵达马来亚。部队是在3日登陆梹榔屿,5日登陆新加坡,12日到达吉隆坡,16日到达怡保,但若干著名的地方甚至月底才重新占领。当日本人被命令撤离重点行政区集中投降,和英国军事管理当局到来之前的这一过渡期间,马来亚人民抗日军从叢林里出来接管政权。     

中国和印度尼西亚的貿易

印度尼西亚的輸入貿易中国在印度尼西亚的經濟地位是比在任何一个方都稳固的。在印度尼西亚紡织品市場上,曾經地名列第三位竞爭者的印度,完全由于商业上的竞爭,在印度尼西亚市塲上取得的地位,但到1958年中,儘管印度在紡織品貿易上尽了各种的努力,大部分还是退出了印度尼西亚市塲。1955年印度的棉花比大多數国家貴(日本除外),但現在印度棉花則比其他国家便宜,特別是比中国便宜約8％。但印度排擠不掉其他竞争国家。印度尼西亚的东南亚国家輸入份额中的比重,从1955年的15％降低到1958年上半年的3.7％—1958年的全年統計數字尚无法取得——而中国的比重則从5.3％增到12.8％(请参看表一)。     

Lifetime earnings patterns, the distribution of future Social Security benefits, and the impact of pension reform

In order to assess the effect of Social Security reform on current and future workers, it is essential to accurately characterize the initial situations of representative workers affected by reform. For the purpose of analyzing typical reforms, the most important characteristic of a worker is the level and pattern of his or her preretirement earnings. Under the current system, pensions are determined largely by the level of the workers' earnings averaged over their work life. However, several reform proposals would create individual retirement accounts for which the pension would depend on the investment accumulation within the account. Thus, the pension would also depend on the timing of the contributions into the account and hence on the exact shape of the worker's lifetime earnings profile. Most analysis of the distributional impact of reform has focused, however, on calculating benefit changes among a handful of hypothetical workers whose relative earnings are constant over their work life. The earnings levels are not necessarily chosen to represent the situations of workers who have typical or truly representative earnings patterns. Consequently, the results of such analysis can be misleading, especially if reform involves introducing a fundamentally new kind of pension formula. This article presents two broad approaches to creating representative earnings profiles for policy evaluation. First, we use standard econometric methods to predict future earnings for a representative sample of workers drawn from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Our statistical estimates are based on a simple representation of typical career earnings paths and a fixed-effect statistical specification. Because our estimation file contains information on each worker's annual earnings from 1951 through 1996 as reported in the Social Security Administration's earnings files, we have a record (though an incomplete one) of the actual earnings that will be used to determine future benefit payments. Our estimates of the earnings function permit us to make highly differentiated predictions of future earnings for each member of our sample. By combining the historical information on individual earnings with our prediction of future earnings up through the normal retirement age, our first approach produces tens of thousands of predicted career earnings paths that can be used in microsimulation policy analysis. Our second approach to creating lifetime earnings profiles is similar in some ways to the traditional method. For example, it is based on the creation of only a handful of "stylized" career earnings patterns. An important difference with the traditional method, however, is that we define the career earnings patterns so that they are truly representative of patterns observed in the workforce. We use simple mathematical formulas to characterize each stylized earnings pattern, and we then produce estimates of the average path of annual earnings for workers whose career earning path falls within each of the stylized patterns we have defined. Finally, we calculate the percentage of workers in successive birth-year cohorts who have earnings profiles that match each of the stylized earnings patterns. Although this method may seem simple, it allows the analyst to create stylized earnings patterns that are widely varied but still representative of earnings patterns observed among sizable groups of U.S. workers. The effects of policy reforms can then be calculated for workers with each of the stylized earnings patterns. Our analysis of U.S. lifetime earnings patterns and of the impact of selected policy reforms produces a number of findings about past trends in earnings, typical earnings patterns in the population, and the potential impact of reform. The analysis focuses on men and women born between 1931 and 1960. Along with earlier analysts, we find that men earn substantially higher lifetime wages than women and typically attain their peak career earnings at a somewhat earlier age. However, the difference in career earnings patterns between men and women has narrowed dramatically over time. Workers with greater educational attainment earn substantially higher wages than those with less education, and they attain their peak career earnings later in life. For example, among men with the least education, peak earnings are often attained around or even before age 40, whereas many men with substantial postsecondary schooling do not reach their peak career earnings until after 50. Our tabulations of the lifetime earnings profiles of the oldest cohorts (born around 1930) and projections of the earnings of the youngest profiles (born around 1960) imply that the inequality of lifetime earnings has increased noticeably over time. Women in the top one-fifth of female earners and men in the top one-fifth of male earners are predicted to receive a growing multiple of the economy-wide average wage during their career. Women born between 1931 and 1935 who were in the top fifth of female earners had lifetime average earnings that were approximately equal to the average economy-wide wage. In contrast, women born after 1951 who were in the top fifth of earners are predicted to earn almost 50 percent more, that is, roughly 150 percent of the economy-wide average wage. Women with a lower rank in the female earnings distribution will also see gains in their lifetime average earnings, but their gains are predicted to be proportionately much smaller than those of women with a high rank in the distribution. Men with high earnings are also predicted to enjoy substantial gains in their relative lifetime earnings, while men with a lower rank in the earnings distribution will probably see a significant erosion in their typical wages relative to the economy-wide average wage. That is mainly the result of a sharp decline in the relative earnings of low-wage men born after 1950. In creating stylized earnings profiles that are representative of those of significant minorities of U.S. workers, we emphasized three critical elements of the earnings path: the average level of earnings over a worker's career, the upward or downward trend in earnings from the worker's 30s through his or her early 60s, and the "sagging" or "hump-shaped" profile of earnings over the worker's career. That classification scheme yields 27 characteristic patterns of lifetime earnings. Surprisingly, the differnce between men and women within each of those categories is quite modest. The main difference between men and women is in the proportions of workers who fall in each category. Only 14 percent of men born between 1931 and 1940 fall in earnings categories with the lowest one-third of lifetime earnings, whereas 53 percent of women born in those years have low-average-earnings profiles. On the other hand, women born in those years are more likely to have a rising trend in lifetime earnings, while men are more likely to have a declining trend. We find that the distribution of lifetime earnings contains relatively more workers with below-average earnings and relatively fewer with very high earnings than assumed in the Social Security Administration's traditional policy analysis. For example, the "low earner" traditionally assumed by the Office of the Chief Actuary is assigned a level of average lifetime earnings that we find to be higher than the average earnings of persons in the bottom one-third of the lifetime earnings distribution. The stylized earnings profiles developed here can be used for policy evaluation, and the results can be compared with those from the more traditional analysis. That comparison produces several notable findings. Because earnings profiles that are actually representative of the population tend to have lower average earnings than assumed in the traditional analysis, workers typically accumulate somewhat less Social Security wealth than implied in the traditional analysis. On the other hand, because the basic benefit formula is tilted in favor of lower-income workers, the internal rate of return on Social Security contributions is somewhat higher than detected in the traditional analysis. Moreover, the primary insurance amount measured as a percentage of the worker's average indexed earnings tends to be higher than implied by the traditional analysis. Finally, the stylized earnings patterns can be used to compare benefit levels enjoyed by workers under the traditional Social Security formula and under an alternative plan based on individual investment accounts. That comparison shows, as expected, that the traditional formula favors low-wage workers and one-earner couples, while an investment account favors single, high-wage workers. Comparing two workers with the same lifetime average earnings, the traditional formula favors workers with rising earnings profiles (that is, with lifetime earnings heavily concentrated at the end of their career), while investment account pensions favor workers with declining earnings profiles (that is, with earnings concentrated early in their career).     

性病的刑事责任

各种性病的性质,治疗的方式和持续的时间,治愈的可能性及其后果皆不尽同,但这并不影响定罪. 乌克兰刑法典第一百零八条第一款规定了有意地使他人有传染性病危险的刑事责任。所谓“有意”,即犯罪人明知自己患有性病并正处于传染期,而且意识到自己的行为将使受害者有得传染性病的危险.这一条第一款还规定了犯罪的主体,是患有性病并了解病情的年满十六周岁的男、女公民.在他(她)们患病,治疗期间,医疗和监督观察期间,直至对其撤销登记为止,都可以追究在他(她)们的刑事责任.在犯罪的主观方面.法律要求犯     

兽医上的病毒疫苗

病毒疫苗或者含有活病毒(活苗),或者含有用各种方法灭能的病毒或病毒产品(灭能苗)。附表总括了用于预防动物病毒疾病的主要疫苗。本文只涉及在动物病毒疾病中以疫苗进行主动免疫的应用方面。关于其生物学原理和各别疫苗的论述,请参阅免疫学、病毒学和传染病学的专书。世界卫生组织第325号技术报告(1966)专门评述了用于人的病毒和立克     

猪水泡病——在英国对污染物与圈舍采用的消毒法

在英国,对于法定疾病,在防制时所采用的用于圈舍和物具的消毒剂以及使用浓度均有规定。有效消毒剂分类表,按如下各个疾病归类:口蹄疫,禽霍乱,结核病,猪水泡病和普通疾病防治,即市场、车辆等一般常规消毒。对于口蹄疫和猪水泡病患病动物接触过的建筑物或其他场所,其清净和消毒方法列在上述法规中。这样的消毒属于《被污染场所》项下,由政府正常费用开支,并且由专任政府兽医官员监督执行。