Modeling SSI financial eligibility and simulating the effect of policy options

This article simulates eligibility for Supplemental Security Income (SSI) among the elderly, analyzes factors affecting participation, and looks at the potential effects of various options to modify financial eligibility standards for the federal SSI program. We find that in the estimated noninstitutional elderly population of 30.2 million in the United States in 1991, approximately 2 million individuals aged 65 or older were eligible for SSI (a 6.6 percent rate of eligibility). Our overall estimate of the rate of participation among eligible elderly is approximately 63 percent, suggesting that more than a third of those who are eligible do not participate in the program. The results of our analysis of factors affecting participation among the eligible elderly show that expected SSI benefits and a number of demographic and socioeconomic variables are associated with the probability of participation. We also simulate the effects of various policy options on the poverty rate, poverty gap, annual program cost, the number of participants, and the average estimated benefits among participants. The simulations consider the potential effects of five policy alternatives: Increase the general income exclusion (GIE) from $20 to $80. Increase the earned income exclusion (EIE) from $65 to $260. Increase the federal benefit rate (FBR) by $50 for individuals and $75 for couples and eliminate the GIE. Increase the asset threshold to $3,000 for individuals and $4,500 for couples. Increase the asset threshold to $6,000 for individuals and $9,000 for couples. Using 1991 microdata from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) matched to Social Security Administration administrative records and making adjustments reflecting aggregate program statistics, we present the results of our simulations for December 1999. The results show substantial variation in the simulated effects of the five policy alternatives along the various outcome dimensions considered. The simulated effects on the poverty gap of the elderly population range from a 7.9 percent reduction ("Increase the GIE from $20 to $80") to a 0.1 percent reduction ("Increase the EIE from $65 to $260"). All simulated interventions are expected to increase the rate of SSI participation among the elderly from a high of 20.3 percent ("Increase the GIE from $20 to $80") to a low of 0.5 percent ("Increase the EIE from $65 to $260"). We also find that the interventions that have greater estimated effects in terms of increased participation and reduced poverty tend to cost more. At the high end, we estimate that increasing the GIE from $20 to $80 could raise annual federal SSI cash benefit outlays by about 46 percent, compared with only 0.9 percent for increasing the EIE from $65 to $260. Similar to the EIE intervention, raising the resource thresholds by 50 percent would reduce the overall poverty gap of the elderly by only 0.2 percent, would increase SSI participation only modestly (by 1.3 percent), but would entail slightly higher program costs (by 1.4 percent). Increasing the asset threshold by 200 percent would have higher estimated effects on all three outcomes, but it would still be associated with relatively low increases in both costs and benefits. Finally, the simulated effects on the three key outcomes of increasing the FBR by $50 for individuals and $75 for couples, combined with eliminating the GIE, are relatively large but are clearly less substantial than increasing the GIE from $20 to $80. This work relies on data from the SIPP matched to administrative data on federal SSI benefits that provide a more accurate picture of SSI participation than has been feasible for previous studies. We simulate eligibility for federal SSI benefits by applying the program rules to detailed information on the characteristics of individuals and couples based on the rich array of demographic and socioeconomic data in the SIPP, particularly the comprehensive information SIPP provides on assets and monthly income. A probit model is estimated to analyze factors affecting participation among the eligible elderly. Finally, we conduct the policy simulations using altered program rules represented by the policy alternatives and predicted participation probabilities to estimate outcomes under simulated program rules. We compare those simulated outcomes to observed outcomes under current program rules. The results of our simulations are conditional on the characteristics of participants and eligibles in 1991, but they also reflect aggregate adjustments capturing substantial changes in overall participation and program benefit levels between 1991 and 1999.     

"Sort of part of the women's movement. But different": mothers' organisations and Australian feminism

In spite of the ‘maternal turn’ in feminist theory, at the level of policy and practice feminism has neglected the politics of motherhood. This article explores the ambivalent relationship between the Australian women's movement and mothers' organisations formed to contest the management of childbirth and lactation. It argues that the advent of a ‘politics of difference’ allows greater acceptance of seemingly non-feminist positions on maternity and recognition of the role played by childbirth reformers in effecting social change. It examines Australian feminist attitudes to motherhood before discussing the response to feminism of women's groups which saw themselves as possibly part of a wider women's movement, but ‘different’ from mainstream feminism. A strong familial orientation was often contradicted by the everyday lives of activist women, who gained new skills and self-confidence in a significant challenge to medicalised reproduction.     

Lethal child abuse (through the use of physical force) in the German Democratic Republic during the period 1 January 1985 to 2 October 1990. Results of a multicenter study

No reliable data are available on cases of lethal child abuse (by active force) in the area of the former German Democratic Republic. In a multicenter study we therefore examined the police and court records for such cases occurring in the period 1 January 1985 to 2 October 1990 in the entire area of the former German Democratic Republic. RESULTS: The study center received information on 39 cases of lethal child abuse which correspond to approximately 7 cases per year. However, a low percentage of undetected crimes which cannot be determined more precisely has to be taken into consideration. Almost 40% of the victims were younger than 1 year, 73% of the victims showed indications of repeated ill-treatment. The effects caused by using direct blunt forces, against the head in particular, were by far the most frequent causes of death. The male contact person (the victim's father, brother or stepfather as well as the life companion of the child's mother in particular) killed the child in most of the cases. As far as it is known, 37% of the male/female offenders suffered from chronic alcoholism; 32% of the male/female offenders were under the influence of alcohol when the crime happened. 83% of the male/female offenders who were found guilty made a confession shortly after the crime had happened or during the interrogations. Almost all the male/female offenders were sentenced to prison (the duration of the imprisonment varied between one year and for life). Due to the considerably lower section rate compared to the one in the German Democratic Republic, it is to fear that each second fatal child abuse is not detected in the new federal states.     

Examples for use of the STR systems in stain assessment with special reference to Y chromosome systems

The authors describe 3 cases where Y-chromosomal systems were used for typing the biological traces. In the first case, a murder, for the major amount of cell material found on a dish towel (and analysed two years after the crime) female persons were excluded for the system amelogenin and Y-chromosomal systems. A brother of the victim could not be excluded for autosomal STR-systems. Upon confrontation with the results of the DNA-analysis (among other things), this brother confessed the murder of his sister some days later. He was found guilty by the court. In the second case described, a rape of two girls, many traces were analysed parallely with Y-chromosomal and autosomal PCR-systems. The objects where male DNA matching the suspect were found (a paper tissue, a sweat shirt and the knickers of the girls), also showed small amounts of alleles matching with the suspect for autosomal systems, while the major part in these systems was from the girls. The suspect was sentenced to many years imprisonment. In the third case, a possible rape of a young woman, a stained microscope slide of a vaginal swab had to be examined. Microscopically a few sperm heads could be seen in a surplus of leucocytes. The male proportion could be analysed only in the Y-chromosomal systems, not in the autosomal ones. For the frequency calculation of the Y-chromosomal allele combination the haplotype data bank of the Institute for Legal Medicine of the Humboldt university in Berlin was indispensable.     

Distribution of D1S80 alleles in the Bahrainian population

This study demonstrates that the locus D1S80 is highly polymorphic in the Bahrainian population. There were 24 different D1S80 alleles and 51 distinct genotypes observed in 198 Bahrainians. There was one allele observed that was smaller than the 14 repeat allele. This data set meets the Hardy-Weinberg expectations (HWE) and could be a useful marker for parentage testing and forensic applications.     

澳大利亚、新西兰、香港、加拿大传闻法律改革及酝酿中的改革——以“先前不一致陈述”为重要视角

本文概览了澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰、香港等四个主要的环太平洋普通法系国家和地区的传闻法律改革,尤其关注与先前不一致陈述相关的改革。指出先前不一致陈述事关"被告人获得公平对待"以及"证人的人权"等基本原则,因此,如何对待先前不一致陈述将成为一项有效的指标,通过该指标。我们得以评价传闻法律改革中的关键原则以及个人权利在大多数严重犯罪的起诉、审判过程中的境况。认为无论借助成文法还是借助先例,公正的传闻法改革应当适用某些相互一致的基本原则,包括放宽采纳传闻的条件决不能以错案数量增长或不公正审判为代价,将传闻改革与保护被告人、证人的基本权利紧密联系起来,保护证人不受任何形式的强迫或不当侦查行为的干扰,辩护律师必须能够无拘束地对陈述可采性加以质疑,通过充分、及时地开示证据来分析有争议的证据的可采性等。     

An autopsy case of imipramine poisoning

We present a fatal imipramine poisoning. Quantitative analysis of imipramine and its metabolite, desipramine, was performed by high-performance liquid chromatography. The concentrations of imipramine and desipramine were 18.67 microg/mL and 6.21 microg/mL in heart blood and 6.90 microg/mL and 1.77 microg/mL in the femoral venous blood, respectively. We concluded that the cause of death was due to imipramine poisoning.     

泰国的人口、教育和人力政策——15—19岁年龄组案例研究

导言随着泰国社会的工业化和现代化,泰国人口正在从高出生率向低出生率转变。这一转变具有一些基本的特点。一方面,人口出生率的逐步下降意味着需要接受义务小学教育的人数正在减少,另一方面,中学学龄人口仍然在增加。此外,中学学龄人口也是进入劳动力市场的年龄段。就这点而论,制定发展计划特别是制定人力发展计划对于泰国社会未来的福利是至关重要的。