On Correcting Biases in Self-Reports of Age at First Substance Use with Repeated Cross-Section Analysis

Household survey data on age at first use of alcohol, tobacco, marijuana,and hard drugs can be biased due to sample selection and inaccuraterecall. One potential concern is attrition, whereby individuals who getinvolved with substance use at an early age become increasingly less likelyto be surveyed in successive years. A comparison of data from the NationalHousehold Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) with data from a longitudinal studysuggested that attrition might have caused substantially less bias thandid forward telescoping, the inflating of age at first useover time. The evidence of forward telescoping was particularly pronouncedwith respect to age at first use of alcohol. This paper presents a procedurefor correcting the distribution of age at first use for forward telescoping(but not attrition) by viewing a portion of the NHSDA data collected insuccessive years as constituting a cohort study. Results are presented fromapplying this procedure with NHSDA data collected from 1982 to 1995 forrespondents born 1968–1973. The findings suggest that preventionprograms need to be introduced at an earlier age than would be indicatedby uncorrected retrospective data. Other implications are alsohighlighted.     

Lifetime earnings patterns, the distribution of future Social Security benefits, and the impact of pension reform

In order to assess the effect of Social Security reform on current and future workers, it is essential to accurately characterize the initial situations of representative workers affected by reform. For the purpose of analyzing typical reforms, the most important characteristic of a worker is the level and pattern of his or her preretirement earnings. Under the current system, pensions are determined largely by the level of the workers' earnings averaged over their work life. However, several reform proposals would create individual retirement accounts for which the pension would depend on the investment accumulation within the account. Thus, the pension would also depend on the timing of the contributions into the account and hence on the exact shape of the worker's lifetime earnings profile. Most analysis of the distributional impact of reform has focused, however, on calculating benefit changes among a handful of hypothetical workers whose relative earnings are constant over their work life. The earnings levels are not necessarily chosen to represent the situations of workers who have typical or truly representative earnings patterns. Consequently, the results of such analysis can be misleading, especially if reform involves introducing a fundamentally new kind of pension formula. This article presents two broad approaches to creating representative earnings profiles for policy evaluation. First, we use standard econometric methods to predict future earnings for a representative sample of workers drawn from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Our statistical estimates are based on a simple representation of typical career earnings paths and a fixed-effect statistical specification. Because our estimation file contains information on each worker's annual earnings from 1951 through 1996 as reported in the Social Security Administration's earnings files, we have a record (though an incomplete one) of the actual earnings that will be used to determine future benefit payments. Our estimates of the earnings function permit us to make highly differentiated predictions of future earnings for each member of our sample. By combining the historical information on individual earnings with our prediction of future earnings up through the normal retirement age, our first approach produces tens of thousands of predicted career earnings paths that can be used in microsimulation policy analysis. Our second approach to creating lifetime earnings profiles is similar in some ways to the traditional method. For example, it is based on the creation of only a handful of "stylized" career earnings patterns. An important difference with the traditional method, however, is that we define the career earnings patterns so that they are truly representative of patterns observed in the workforce. We use simple mathematical formulas to characterize each stylized earnings pattern, and we then produce estimates of the average path of annual earnings for workers whose career earning path falls within each of the stylized patterns we have defined. Finally, we calculate the percentage of workers in successive birth-year cohorts who have earnings profiles that match each of the stylized earnings patterns. Although this method may seem simple, it allows the analyst to create stylized earnings patterns that are widely varied but still representative of earnings patterns observed among sizable groups of U.S. workers. The effects of policy reforms can then be calculated for workers with each of the stylized earnings patterns. Our analysis of U.S. lifetime earnings patterns and of the impact of selected policy reforms produces a number of findings about past trends in earnings, typical earnings patterns in the population, and the potential impact of reform. The analysis focuses on men and women born between 1931 and 1960. Along with earlier analysts, we find that men earn substantially higher lifetime wages than women and typically attain their peak career earnings at a somewhat earlier age. However, the difference in career earnings patterns between men and women has narrowed dramatically over time. Workers with greater educational attainment earn substantially higher wages than those with less education, and they attain their peak career earnings later in life. For example, among men with the least education, peak earnings are often attained around or even before age 40, whereas many men with substantial postsecondary schooling do not reach their peak career earnings until after 50. Our tabulations of the lifetime earnings profiles of the oldest cohorts (born around 1930) and projections of the earnings of the youngest profiles (born around 1960) imply that the inequality of lifetime earnings has increased noticeably over time. Women in the top one-fifth of female earners and men in the top one-fifth of male earners are predicted to receive a growing multiple of the economy-wide average wage during their career. Women born between 1931 and 1935 who were in the top fifth of female earners had lifetime average earnings that were approximately equal to the average economy-wide wage. In contrast, women born after 1951 who were in the top fifth of earners are predicted to earn almost 50 percent more, that is, roughly 150 percent of the economy-wide average wage. Women with a lower rank in the female earnings distribution will also see gains in their lifetime average earnings, but their gains are predicted to be proportionately much smaller than those of women with a high rank in the distribution. Men with high earnings are also predicted to enjoy substantial gains in their relative lifetime earnings, while men with a lower rank in the earnings distribution will probably see a significant erosion in their typical wages relative to the economy-wide average wage. That is mainly the result of a sharp decline in the relative earnings of low-wage men born after 1950. In creating stylized earnings profiles that are representative of those of significant minorities of U.S. workers, we emphasized three critical elements of the earnings path: the average level of earnings over a worker's career, the upward or downward trend in earnings from the worker's 30s through his or her early 60s, and the "sagging" or "hump-shaped" profile of earnings over the worker's career. That classification scheme yields 27 characteristic patterns of lifetime earnings. Surprisingly, the differnce between men and women within each of those categories is quite modest. The main difference between men and women is in the proportions of workers who fall in each category. Only 14 percent of men born between 1931 and 1940 fall in earnings categories with the lowest one-third of lifetime earnings, whereas 53 percent of women born in those years have low-average-earnings profiles. On the other hand, women born in those years are more likely to have a rising trend in lifetime earnings, while men are more likely to have a declining trend. We find that the distribution of lifetime earnings contains relatively more workers with below-average earnings and relatively fewer with very high earnings than assumed in the Social Security Administration's traditional policy analysis. For example, the "low earner" traditionally assumed by the Office of the Chief Actuary is assigned a level of average lifetime earnings that we find to be higher than the average earnings of persons in the bottom one-third of the lifetime earnings distribution. The stylized earnings profiles developed here can be used for policy evaluation, and the results can be compared with those from the more traditional analysis. That comparison produces several notable findings. Because earnings profiles that are actually representative of the population tend to have lower average earnings than assumed in the traditional analysis, workers typically accumulate somewhat less Social Security wealth than implied in the traditional analysis. On the other hand, because the basic benefit formula is tilted in favor of lower-income workers, the internal rate of return on Social Security contributions is somewhat higher than detected in the traditional analysis. Moreover, the primary insurance amount measured as a percentage of the worker's average indexed earnings tends to be higher than implied by the traditional analysis. Finally, the stylized earnings patterns can be used to compare benefit levels enjoyed by workers under the traditional Social Security formula and under an alternative plan based on individual investment accounts. That comparison shows, as expected, that the traditional formula favors low-wage workers and one-earner couples, while an investment account favors single, high-wage workers. Comparing two workers with the same lifetime average earnings, the traditional formula favors workers with rising earnings profiles (that is, with lifetime earnings heavily concentrated at the end of their career), while investment account pensions favor workers with declining earnings profiles (that is, with earnings concentrated early in their career).     

Socioeconomic change and suicide: a time-series study from the Republic of Ireland

This ecological study examined the association between seven socioeconomic indicators (GDP, unemployment rate, female labor force participation rate, alcohol expenditure, marriage rate, percentage of births outside of marriage, and indictable crime rate) and total, male, and female rates of suicide and suicide plus undetermined death in Ireland during the period 1968-2000. Analysis of the data expressed as absolute values showed highly significant associations between the socioeconomic indicators and the total, male, and female suicide rates. However, these associations were explained by the strongly trended data. The trended nature of the data was removed by using year-to-year differences. Analysis of the first-differenced data showed that none of the socioeconomic indicators was associated with the total, male, or female suicide rates with the exception of indictable crime, which had a significant independent effect on the female suicide rate (coefficient = 2.0, p < .01) but not on suicide plus undetermined death. This study highlights the need to use econometric methods in time-trend analyses, the lack of age-sex specific exposure data in this area, and the challenge of understanding trends in suicide in their socioeconomic context.     

The role of psychopathy and sexuality in a female serial killer

The case of Aileen Wuornos, executed in Florida for the serial killing of seven men, is studied to determine her degree of psychopathy and the presence or absence of sexuality or sexual sadism as a motivation or gratification for her crimes. The authors, one of whom evaluated the subject shortly before her death, determined that she evidenced a psychopathic personality (PCL-R score 32). She also met DSM-IV-TR criteria for Antisocial Personality Disorder and Borderline Personality Disorder. While her killings ostensibly were carried out during routine acts of prostitution, there was ambiguous evidence that her crimes were sexually motivated or gratifying. Her articulated motivation was robbery and elimination of the witness/victim. After carefully considering all available data, the authors concluded there was no convincing evidence of sexual sadism in either her personal history or her method of committing serial murder, and it remains unclear whether sexual gratification was to some degree a motivating factor in her commission of these offenses. The confluence of early childhood attachment disruptions, severe psychopathy, other personality disorder pathology, and a traumagenic abuse history likely contributed to her having serially murdered seven victims.     

Postmortem non-invasive virtual autopsy: death by hanging in a car

A body was found behind a car with a noose tied around its neck, the other end of the rope tied to a tree. Apparently the man committed suicide by driving away with the noose tied around his neck and was dragged out of the car through the open hatchback. postmortem multislice-computed tomography (MSCT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) indicated that the cause of death was cerebral hypoxia due to classic strangulation by hanging, and not due to a brainstem lesion because of a hang-man fracture as would be expected in such a dynamic situation. Furthermore, the MRI displayed intramuscular haemorrhage, bleeding into the clavicular insertions of the sternocleidomastoid muscles and subcutaneous neck tissue. We conclude that MSCT and MRI are useful instruments with an increased value compared with 2D radiographs to augment the external findings of bodies when an autopsy is refused. But further postmortem research and comparing validation is needed.     

A review of the analysis of vegetable oil residues from fire debris samples: spontaneous ignition, vegetable oils, and the forensic approach

This paper reviews the literature on the analysis of vegetable (and animal) oil residues from fire debris samples. The process of self-heating and spontaneous ignition is well-known by fire investigators and causes many fires. Vegetable oils are often the chemicals that originate such phenomenon. Vegetable oils are composed of lipids, which contain fatty acids. The autooxidation of the double bonds present in unsaturated fatty acids is the exothermic reaction at the origin of the self-heating process. The degree of unsaturation of fatty acids directly influences the propensity of an oil to undergo self-heating and, eventually, spontaneous ignition. When fire debris samples are collected, it is possible to examine them at the laboratory to extract and identify vegetable oil residues. This is typically performed by solvent extraction, followed by gas chromatographic(-mass spectrometric) analysis of the extract. Such analyses differ from ignitable liquid residue analyses, so a different forensic approach is necessary.     

Fatalities by ingestion of propylene glycol

Propylene glycol (PG), a widely used solvent and lubricant, is thought to have low toxicity when ingested. Three cases were identified where PG, either alone or in combination with other chemical agents, contributed to death. The decedent in whom PG was the sole agent was a 32-year-old schizophrenic man with cardiomegaly and renal impairment. The blood PG concentration was 4410 mg/L at least 9.5 h following ingestion.     

Conduct and its Consequences: Attempts at Debiasing Jury Judgments

Jurors in negligence cases are supposed to judge a defendant by the reasonableness of his or her conduct and not by the consequences of that conduct. But several studies have shown that a cognitive heuristic known as hindsight bias can skew post hoc judgments of some prior behavior. Thus, jurors who must evaluate the actions of a defendant may be influenced inappropriately by the consequences of those actions. A complementary problem arises when jurors must evaluate the injuries incurred by the plaintiff. Here, jurors' knowledge about the defendant's allegedly negligent conduct can proactively influence their assessment of the plaintiff's injuries and determination of damages. The purpose of the present study was to examine the effectiveness of two procedural techniques intended to reduce or eliminate the impact of hindsight bias in negligence cases—multiple admonitions from a judge about the proper use of evidence—and bifurcation (actually withholding irrelevant evidence from jurors). We presented a re-enacted automobile negligence trial to 355 jury-eligible adults drawn from the community, varied the evidence and instructions that they heard, and measured liability judgments and damage awards from individual jurors both before and after deliberating, and from juries. Results showed that admonitions were generally ineffective in guiding jurors to the proper use of evidence but that bifurcation was relatively more effective. Deliberations had no curative effect on jurors' misapplication of evidence.     

Community-based care for people with severe mental illness in Canada

The development of mental health services for people with severe mental illness has in many ways paralleled that in other countries, particularly the United States. As reliance on inpatient psychiatric care has been sharply reduced, a wide range of community supports have been developed. Several distinct institutional and legal features have contributed to shaping the nature of these community supports, which are described herein. At present, the result is a highly fragmented system of care. Key evidence-based practices, notably assertive community treatment, supported employment, and integrated treatment for concurrent severe mental illness and substance use disorder, achieve considerable integration at the clinical level, but remain relatively unavailable in most provinces. The policy of regionalization of services risks inhibiting the development of such practices, which require more centralized technical assistance and monitoring. An evolutionary approach of gradually introducing integrated, evidence-based programs may provide the most feasible strategy for improving the system.