Macroeconomic Policies and Agricultural Terms of Trade,Bangladesh, 1952–2005

Agricultural prices in Bangladesh have had a tendency to rise at a faster rate than industrial prices since the early 1950s. The resulting rising trend in the agricultural terms of trade has been pronounced since the mid-1980s when Bangladesh introduced IMF- and World Bank-supported deregulatory economic reforms. This rising trend in the agricultural terms of trade is inconsistent with the Prebisch-Singer thesis in the context of domestic economy, which suggests a secular deterioration in the terms of trade for primary products vis-à-vis manufactured products. It is, however, consistent with the view of classical economists who saw the possibility of an upward trend in the terms of trade for agricultural products (food) because of diminishing returns in agriculture. In fact, the classical idea of the rising terms of trade for primary products makes sense in a land-constrained growing economy with increasing population, such as Bangladesh, which remained semi-closed until the mid-1980s. This article reviews macroeconomic policies in Bangladesh since the 1950s, examines the time-series properties of agricultural prices, industrial prices and the agricultural terms of trade and draws inference on the issue whether the agricultural sector was squeezed systematically by turning the terms of trade against agriculture for industrialisation of the country.     

Dreams of a Secular Republic: Elite Alienation in Post-Zia Pakistan

Since the onset of the “war on terror,” an apparently irreconcilable “secular-religious” divide has come to the fore in Pakistani society with ostensibly deep historical roots. In this article the “divide” is critically interrogated through an historical-sociological analysis, including detailed interviews with a small sample of both “secularists” and leftists who do not subscribe to the “secular-religious” binary. The article emphasises that substantive social changes have taken place over the past four decades, coeval with the erosion of a relatively insular structure of power dominated by the secular, Westernised successors to the British. The concomitant rise of a “nativised” middle class has both been cause and consequence of the old elite’s steady retreat into its private ghettoes. The latter’s growing alienation from wider society – including the realm of formal politics – has been accompanied by growing alarmism about the increasingly illiberal and hyper-religious character of the mass of the population. Elite alienation has intensified since 2001, making the “secular-religious” divide a self-fulfilling prophecy. Notwithstanding its protestations, however, the elite remains the major beneficiary of the prevailing structure of power, and a meaningful transformative politics – both secular and responsive to the material deprivations of ordinary people – remains conspicuously absent.     

Conspiracy and statecraft in postcolonial states: theories and realities of the hidden hand in Pakistan’s war on terror

This paper is a cautiously sympathetic treatment of conspiracy theory in Pakistan, relating it to Marxist theories of the state, structural functionalism and Machiavellian realism in international relations. Unlike moralising mainstream news reports describing terrorism in terms of horrific events and academic research endlessly lamenting the ‘failure’, ‘weakness’ and mendacity of the Pakistani state, conspiracy theory has much in common with realism in its cynical disregard for stated intentions and insistence on the primacy of inter-state rivalry. It contains a theory of the postcolonial state as part of a wider international system based on class-conspiracy, wedding imperial interests to those of an indigenous elite, with little concern for preserving liberal norms of statehood. Hence we consider some forms of conspiracy theory a layperson’s theory of the capitalist state, which seeks to explain history with reference to global and domestic material forces, interests and structures shaping outcomes, irrespective of political actors’ stated intentions. While this approach may be problematic in its disregard for intentionality and ideology, its suspicion of the notion that the ‘War on Terror’ should be read morally as a battle between states and ‘non-state actors’ is understandable – especially when technological and political-economic changes have made the importance of impersonal economic forces driving towards permanent war more relevant than ever.     

Moral economy in a global era: the politics of provisions during contemporary food price spikes

The wave of food riots since 2007 revived interest in why people protest in periods of dearth, yet research has to date failed to make sense of the political cultures of food protests. The concept of the moral economy in European history is explored here to make sense of contemporary political perspectives on how food markets should work in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Kenya and Zambia. The concrete expressions of these moral economies are localized and politically contingent, yet there are broad areas of common ground across settings. As with the moral economies of seventeenth- and eighteenth-century Europe, there is strong popular feeling against speculation and collusion in food markets in times of dearth, and an emphasis on the responsibilities of public authorities to act. But whereas the moral economy in European histories focused on customary paternalistic obligations, the contemporary emphasis is on formal and electoral accountabilities as a means of triggering public action. The paper concludes with a discussion of a research agenda on the moral economy and the politics of provisions in globalised present-day food markets.