Valence politics and economic crisis: Electoral choice in Canada 2008

This paper investigates factors affecting voting behavior in Canada’s October 2008 federal election. The election was held in the context of a rapidly worsening financial crisis that threatened to become a global economic meltdown. National survey data gathered in the 2008 Political Support in Canada Study reveal that the deteriorating economy trumped the opposition Liberal Party’s Green Shift Program as the major campaign issue by a huge margin. Damage done to the governing Conservatives by the economic crisis was limited by perceptions of their leader, Prime Minister Stephen Harper. Analyses of a mixed logit model of electoral choice shows that although the Conservatives had a relatively small share of party identifiers and Harper was widely disliked, his image as “safe pair on hands” helped his party weather the political storm generated by the flood of bad economic news.     

Achievement Gaps in Education

Achievement gaps on international tests in math and science, between American students and their industrialized counterparts have worsened over the last 40 years, that is since the tests were originally administered. On a short-term basis, the achievement gap reflects America’s decline in human capital—and issues related to innovation, creativity and GDP. On a long-term basis, the achievement gaps reflect a decline of the U.S. (and the West) and the rise of the East. School financing and government programs seem to have marginal or secondary effects on school achievement. Excuses for the decline in U.S. test scores are numerous. What seems to count is that a large fraction of the variation in student achievement is accounted for in out-of-school variables, such as the student’s community, home or peer group characteristics. The bottom line: Schools seem to have little effect on reducing social and economic inequality and differences in educational output.     

THE AUSTRALIAN CHILD SUPPORT AGENCY:

The Australian Child Support Agency is recognized as a world leader in the delivery of child support services. But the rapid growth in debt between 1998 and 2003 signaled a need to develop strategies to counter the growth in owed child support. A Debt Study was undertaken in late 2002 to establish the collectibility of debt by category of cases with debt, search for the most cost-effective methods of debt collection, and determine if other client and debt segmentation methods were warranted. The success of the Debt Study led to the implementation of the Intensive Debt Collection strategy in 2003–04.     

In the Nick of Time: Conflict Management, Mediation Timing, and the Duration of Interstate Disputes

This paper develops a theoretical argument linking time and the timing of conflict management efforts to dispute duration. We test competing hypotheses on conflict data drawn from disputes in the post-1945 period. Our analysis demonstrates that the effects of mediation vary substantially over the course of a dispute. Specifically, we note that mediation has a curvilinear relationship with time and the ending of disputes. Mediation efforts that occur soon after disputes begin have the best chance of reducing expected future dispute duration. Following this initial period, subsequent mediation efforts lead to longer rather than shorter disputes. After a long period, mediation again leads to shorter rather than longer disputes. We also find that there should be consistency in the mediators used to manage a conflict rather than shifting personnel to interject new ideas.     

Victim or injurer, small car or SUV: Tort liability rules under role-type uncertainty

In this paper we modify the standard tort model by introducing role-type uncertainty. That is, we assume that neither party knows in advance whether she will be the victim or the injurer when an accident occurs. When the standards of care of the two parties are set at the socially optimal levels, only pure comparative negligence and the equal division rule guarantee efficiency, while the rules of simple negligence, contributory negligence, and comparative negligence with fixed division (other than a 50:50 split) may produce inefficient equilibria. Since pure comparative negligence splits liability between negligent parties according to each party's degree of fault, it makes the accident loss division independent of one's role-type. This produces its efficiency advantage.We extend the model to the choice of vehicle size, as a factor determining who will be the injurer and who the victim in motor vehicle collisions. In the extension we analyze various standard negligence-based liability rules, and tax rules, as instruments to mitigate inefficiency resulting from the vehicle size “arms race.” We also examine two strict liability rules, one of which incorporates a comparative negligence feature; this rule prevents inefficiency from both role-type uncertainty and from the “arms race.”