Modeling the Referral Decision in Sexual Assault Cases: An Application of Random Forests

This paper examines the decision to refer a sexual assault case for prosecution using a sample of 730 reported sexual assaults in which the victim received a medical/forensic examination. The decision to refer a case for prosecution was modeled using an algorithmic modeling technique, Random Forests. The key advantages of this modeling approach include its superiority in predicting case outcomes and its ability to easily uncover nonlinear relationships. Key results indicate that the likelihood of referral increased when sperm was found and documented, when the victim could identify the suspect, and as the severity of nongenital injury increased. Neither the presence nor the severity of genital injury impacted the decision to refer a case for prosecution. On the whole, suspect and report characteristics had the largest impact on referring cases for prosecution, with victim characteristics having little influence.     

Electoral formulas: A macroscopic perspective

Abstract The paper offers a macroscopic view of the legislative electoral formulas in force in 166 sovereign countries, whether democratic or not. The purpose is to determine which formulas are the most widespread, and whether the prevalence of a formula is correlated with geographical, historical, economic, and political factors. While plurality and PR systems are equally frequent, the former tend to be found in more populated countries. PR prevails in Europe and South America, and among the most democratic countries, while the plurality rule is more typical of Asia, Africa, and North America, and is especially popular among former British colonies. Large countries are more likely to opt for single–member districts. No significant correlation emerges between the level of economic development or French colonial background and any electoral formula. The study suggests that the selection of an electoral system is not merely the outcome of party interest, but is also strongly influenced by ideas about what is good, just, or efficient.     

Turnout in electoral democracies

Abstract. We examine turnout in 324 democratic national lower house elections held in 91 countries, between 1972 and 1995. We rely on Freedom House ratings of political rights to determine whether an election is democratic or not. We distinguish three blocs of factors that affect turnout: the socio–economic environment, institutions, and party systems. We show that turnout is influenced by a great number of factors and that the patterns that have been shown to prevail in studies dealing with more limited samples of countries generally hold when we look at a larger set of democracies. But we also show that the socioeconomic environment, which has been downplayed in previous studies, has a substantial impact on turnout.     

Political Cycles,Fiscal Deficits,and Output Spillovers in Europe

This paper investigates whether national elections in Europegenerate political cycles in other European countries, and, ifso, whether these spillover effects are likely to surviveinside EMU. The paper first tests whether elections in Germanyaffect macroeconomic outcomes in other European countries andthen investigates the impact of elections on budget deficits.The results indicate that German politics significantlyimpacts macroeconomic variables in other European countries,and also that politics significantly affects the behaviour ofEuropean budgetary policy. The prospect of elections tends toincrease public deficits in recessions, whereas left-winggovernments tend to be more deficit-prone than right-winggovernments regardless of the state of the economy. Moreover,the existence of political cycles spillovers among Europeancountries suggest that there may be a need for electoralcoordination.     

The electoral budget cycle

This article begins with a review of the now substantial literature on the thesis that polticians manipulate governmental outputs so as to favor their chances of reelection. It concludes that while this “electoral cycle” thesis was initially overstated by its proponents, it retains more plausibility than recent critics have allowed. This conclusion is then demonstrated through an analysis of expenditures by the ten provincial governments in Canada between 1951 and 1984.     

SEM/EDS analysis and characterization of gunshot residues from Brazilian lead-free ammunition

The exposition to heavy metal-rich airborne due to fire practicing has forced to the development of heavy metal-free environmental ammunition primers all over the world. Here we characterize the GSR elements present in the Brazilian lead-free ammunition produced by Companhia Brasileira de Cartuchos (CBC) and commercialized by MagTech in the U.S. and Europe under the name CleanRange centerfire cartridges. Both first and second generations of CleanRange in calibers 9 mm Luger, .40 S&W, .380 AUTO and .38 SPL were analyzed and compared to regular Brazilian CBC ammunition by scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive spectroscopy. Differences in composition and morphology of GSR particles from the two generations of CleanRange were observed. The first generation ammunition (found in Europe) presented spherical particles, being strontium the only unique element detected. The second generation (found in the U.S.) produced irregular particles composed mostly by potassium, aluminum, silicon and calcium. We can conclude that identification of GSR derived from CBC second generation lead-free ammunition in suspects' hands may be impossible without the addition of a distinct metallic taggant in the primer composition by the manufacturer.     

Cerebral traumatism with a playground rocking toy mimicking shaken baby syndrome

Shaken baby syndrome (SBS), one of the most deadly and devastating forms of child abuse, is caused by violent shaking. The combination of subdural hematoma, retinal hemorrhage, brain swelling, and diffuse axonal injury is highly typical of this syndrome and faced with these autopsy findings, induced traumatic lesions are strongly considered. However, it is known that motor-vehicle accidents and falls from great height can also produce this pattern of injury. Nevertheless, stories of arms fall, couch fall, or bumped head while the baby is being carried are generally considered incompatible with SBS. We here report a case of a 2-year-old boy presenting with all the classic autopsy findings of SBS from a playground rocking toy shaken by an older child.