Using Cluster Analysis and ICP‐MS to Identify Groups of Ecstasy Tablets in Sao Paulo State,Brazil

The variations found in the elemental composition in ecstasy samples result in spectral profiles with useful information for data analysis, and cluster analysis of these profiles can help uncover different categories of the drug. We provide a cluster analysis of ecstasy tablets based on their elemental composition. Twenty‐five elements were determined by ICP‐MS in tablets apprehended by Sao Paulo's State Police, Brazil. We employ the K‐means clustering algorithm along with C4.5 decision tree to help us interpret the clustering results. We found a better number of two clusters within the data, which can refer to the approximated number of sources of the drug which supply the cities of seizures. The C4.5 model was capable of differentiating the ecstasy samples from the two clusters with high prediction accuracy using the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation. The model used only Nd, Ni, and Pb concentration values in the classification of the samples.     

Detecting the True Nature of Allegations of Rape

A study was conducted to test whether it is possible to build a model to distinguish true and false allegations of rape based on the theory of fabricated rape. The theory is based on the principle that a false complainant of rape has not been raped and has to fabricate a story while the story of a true victim is based on recollections of the event. Consequently, false complainants will behave as liars do, construct their story based on their own sexual experiences and on mental representations, beliefs of how such a crime would happen (De Zutter et al. in Eur J Psychol Appl Leg Context. doi: 10.1016/j.ejpal.2016.02.002, 2016). To test the theory and to build a model to discriminate between true and false allegations of rape, a police sample of true and false allegations was studied. A total of 129, 72 true and 57 false, allegations of rape fulfilled the stringent criteria of the current study, among others on ground truth. Fifty-four allegations of rape, 27 true and 27 false, were used to build a prediction model based on the theory of bounded rationality by Gigerenzer (2002). The remaining 75 cases, 45 true and 30 false, were blindly categorised as either true or false based on the model. The model was able to predict the true nature of the majority of allegations with an accuracy rate of 91 %. Thus, it seems possible to discriminate to a considerable extend between true and false allegations of rape.     

Attitude counts: engaging with rice farmers in West Africa

An international project called PADS promoted participatory learning and action research with inland valley rainfed rice farmers in West Africa. All countries received the same training, similar funding, and the same leadership. Although the staff in Ghana were conscientious and gave much training to the farmer beneficiaries, the Mali staff explicitly encouraged farmers to experiment. Farmers in Mali responded to this favourable attitude by experimenting more than those in Ghana, and in qualitatively more interesting ways. Long-term engagement with grassroots organisations may be as conducive to changing public servants' attitudes as the actual participatory approach promoted on the ground.

L'attitude compte: travail avec des riziculteurs en Afrique de l'Ouest

Un projet international appelé PADS a favorisé l'apprentissage participatif et la recherche-action avec des riziculteurs pratiquant la culture pluviale dans les vallées de l'intérieur des terres en Afrique de l'Ouest. Tous les pays ont reçu la même formation, un financement similaire et le même leadership. Alors que les membres du personnel du Ghana étaient consciencieux et dispensaient une formation considérable aux agriculteurs bénéficiaires, le personnel du Mali encourageait expressément les riziculteurs à faire des expériences. Les riziculteurs du mali ont réagi à cette attitude favorable en faisant plus d'expériences que ceux du Ghana, et ce de manières plus intéressantes sur le plan qualitatif. L'engagement à long terme avec les organisations de la base populaire peut être tout aussi propice à la modification des attitudes des fonctionnaires que l'approche participative même promue sur le terrain.

As atitudes contam: Engajamento com produtores de arroz na África Ocidental

Um projeto internacional chamado PADS promoveu uma pesquisa sobre aprendizado e ação participativa com produtores de arroz irrigado com água da chuva no interior do vale na África Ocidental. Todos os países receberam o mesmo treinamento, financiamento semelhante e a mesma liderança. Embora os funcionários de Gana estivessem cientes e oferecessem bastante treinamento aos produtores beneficiários, os funcionários de Mali incentivaram explicitamente os produtores a experimentar. Os produtores de Mali responderam a esta atitude favorável experimentando mais do que aqueles de Gana e de maneiras mais interessantes em termos qualitativos. O engajamento de longo prazo com organizações de base pode contribuir para mudar as atitudes dos servidores públicos tanto quanto a abordagem participativa real promovida na base.

La actitud cuenta: el trato personal con campesinos arroceros de África Occidental

Un proyecto internacional llamado PADS promovió el aprendizaje participativo y la investigación-acción entre campesinos que cultivaban arroz de secano en los valles centrales de África Occidental. Todos los países participantes recibieron la misma capacitación, un financiamiento similar y las mismas orientaciones. Si bien el personal de Ghana era muy diligente y transmitió muchos conocimientos a los campesinos beneficiarios en capacitaciones, el personal de Malí se centró más explícitamente en animarlos para que experimentaran. Los campesinos de Malí respondieron a esta actitud estimuladora realizando más experimentos y de maneras cualitativamente más interesantes que los campesinos de Ghana. El compromiso de largo plazo con organizaciones de base puede ser tan importante para lograr un cambio en la actitud del servidor público como el método participativo que se promueve en la actualidad sobre el terreno.     

Current strategic approaches for the detection of blood doping practices

Aerobic sport performance may be strongly influenced by the number of red blood cells available for transport and delivery of oxygen from lungs to muscles. Often, athletes search for an acute increase in red blood cells by means of blood transfusions. This paper reviews the possibilities for detecting such prohibited practice. Flow cytometry methods are able to detect a double population of red blood cell membrane surface antigens, thus revealing an allogeneic transfusion. Other ingenious approaches for total hemoglobin mass measurements or to test for the metabolites of blood bag plasticizers in urine are new trends for facing the detection of autologous transfusions. Steady increase of red blood cell number may be obtained also by erythropoietic stimulant agents such as erythropoietin, analogs and mimetics. The challenge of detecting those substances has stimulated the development of indirect markers of altered erythropoiesis, leading to the consequent development of the hematological blood passport approach, which is gaining legal acceptance.     

An evaluation of non-metric cranial traits used to estimate ancestry in a South African sample

Establishing ancestry from a skeleton for forensic purposes has been shown to be difficult. The purpose of this paper is to address the application of thirteen non-metric traits to estimate ancestry in three South African groups, namely White, Black and "Coloured". In doing so, the frequency distribution of thirteen non-metric traits among South Africans are presented; the relationship of these non-metric traits with ancestry, sex, age at death are evaluated; and Kappa statistics are utilized to assess the inter and intra-rater reliability. Crania of 520 known individuals were obtained from four skeletal samples in South Africa: the Pretoria Bone Collection, the Raymond A. Dart Collection, the Kirsten Collection and the Student Bone Collection from the University of the Free State. Average age at death was 51, with an age range between 18 and 90. Thirteen commonly used non-metric traits from the face and jaw were scored; definition and illustrations were taken from Hefner, Bass and Hauser and De Stephano. Frequency distributions, ordinal regression and Cohen's Kappa statistics were performed as a means to assess population variation and repeatability. Frequency distributions were highly variable among South Africans. Twelve of the 13 variables had a statistically significant relationship with ancestry. Sex significantly affected only one variable, inter-orbital breadth, and age at death affected two (anterior nasal spine and alveolar prognathism). The interaction of ancestry and sex independently affected three variables (nasal bone contour, nasal breadth, and interorbital breadth). Seven traits had moderate to excellent repeatability, while poor scoring consistency was noted for six variables. Difficulties in repeating several of the trait scores may require either a need for refinement of the definitions, or these character states may not adequately describe the observable morphology in the population. The application of the traditional experience-based approach for estimating ancestry in forensic case work is problematic.     

ARPA-E and DARPA: Applying the DARPA model to energy innovation

ARPA-E offers a new innovation institutional model to meet energy technology challenges. Because it is explicitly based on DARPA, this article reviews the noted DARPA approach in detail. Briefly citing well-known features of DARPA, it explores a number of important features that have not been well discussed in the policy literature on DARPA. These include DARPA??s ability to undertake multigenerational technology thrusts, the synergies it has been able to create through complementary strategic technologies, its ability to build an advocate community, and connections it has built to larger innovation elements downstream from DARPA. It has also taken on incumbent technologies within both DOD and in the private sector, used ties to DOD leadership to press its advances, and supported initial market creation. The article then reviews the new ARPA-E model in detail, commenting first on how ARPA-E has adopted key DARPA approaches. It then discusses new features ARPA-E is adopting, driven by the unique demands of the complex, established energy sector. These include new ways: (1) to sharpen the research visioning, selection and support processes, (2) to build a community of support, important to its political survival, and (3) to implement technologies it supports. In addition, the further DARPA features enumerated above provide potentially useful future guideposts to ARPA-E. The paper closes with a discussion of the difficult technology implementation problems on the ??back end?? of the innovation system??including demonstrations, test beds, and initial markets. The article posits that both agencies must further address these implementation issues by fostering additional downstream partnerships, including between government and private sector.     

Parametric Insurance: Using Objective Measures to Address the Impacts of Natural Disasters and Climate Change

Parametric insurance is a promising alternative to traditional insurance when it comes to addressing catastrophic weather events and their impact on developing nations. Where available, traditional insurance is expensive and can involve protracted claim adjustment. Parametric insurance, on the other hand, provides coverage monies automatically upon the existence of certain objective weather-related parameters based upon a set formula. This model has been shown to work in the Caribbean Basin, but requires international cooperation in pooling, measuring, and managing risk. The immediate availability of emergency-response funds can be crucial in mitigating the impacts of climate change and related severe weather events.     

Elasticity in evaluations of criminal evidence: Exploring the role of cognitive dissonance

Purpose. Previous experiments have demonstrated asymmetrical scepticism in investigators' judgments of criminal evidence – evidence inconsistent (vs. consistent) with the dominant hypothesis about a case is judged as less reliable. In addition, some types of evidence (e.g., witness testimony) are more susceptible to asymmetrical scepticism than others (e.g., DNA evidence), indicating varying degrees of elasticity. This article proposes that inconsistent evidence arouses cognitive dissonance, and that the dissonance can be reduced through either asymmetrical scepticism (for high‐elasticity evidence) or belief change (for low‐elasticity evidence). The hypotheses are tested in two experiments. Methods. In both experiments, law students made a preliminary judgment about the guilt of a suspect in a homicide case, and subsequently received a piece of DNA or witness evidence which was either consistent or inconsistent with the preliminary judgment. The extent to which participants changed their guilt judgments, judged the additional evidence as reliable, and felt dissonance served as the main dependent variables. Results. Inconsistent (vs. consistent) evidence did arouse stronger dissonance, but only for witness (and not DNA) evidence. Experienced dissonance (Experiment 1) and dissonance reduction (Experiment 2) accounted for the effect of the evidence on changes in guilt judgments, but not for the effect on reliability judgments. The greatest dissonance reduction was observed among participants who received inconsistent witness evidence but did not change their guilt judgments accordingly. Conclusions. It appears that dissonance plays a significant, although complex, role in investigative judgments of guilt and reliability. Alternative dissonance‐reducing mechanisms that can account for the findings and practical implications are discussed.     

Forensic drug intelligence: an important tool in law enforcement

Organised criminality is a great concern for national/international security. The demonstration of complex crimes is increasingly dependant on knowledge distributed within law-enforcement agencies and scientific disciplines. This separation of knowledge creates difficulties in reconstructing and prosecuting such crimes. Basic interdisciplinary research in drug intelligence combined with crime analysis, forensic intelligence, and traditional law enforcement investigation is leading to important advances in crime investigation support. Laboratory results constitute one highly dependable source of information that is both reliable and testable. Their operational use can support investigation and even provide undetected connections or organisation of structure. The foremost difficulties encountered by drug analysts are not principally of a chemical or analytical nature, but methodologies to extract parameters or features that are deemed to be crucial for handling and contextualising drug profiling data. An organised memory has been developed in order to provide accurate, timely, useful and meaningful information for linking spatially and temporally distinct events on a national and international level (including cross-border phenomena). Literature has already pointed out that forensic case data are amenable for use in an intelligence perspective if data and knowledge of specialised actors are appropriately organised, shared and processed. As a particular form of forensic case data, the authors' research focuses on parameters obtained through the systematic physical and chemical profiling of samples of illicit drugs. The procedure is used to infer and characterise links between samples that originate from the same and different seizures. The discussion will not, however, focus on how samples are actually analysed and compared as substantial literature on this topic already exists. Rather, attention is primarily drawn to an active and close collaboration between magistrates, forensic scientists, law enforcement investigators and crime analysts from different institutions with the aim of generating, using and validating relevant profiling case data as integral part of investigative and crime analysis processes. Original advances are highlighted through experiences from criminal investigations of offences related to the unlawful importation, exportation, supply and possession of illicit drugs.     

Shoe print examinations: effects of expectation, complexity and experience

Even though trace evidence is becoming more and more important in legal cases, only little is known about the influence of task and context factors on comparative judgments. In the present study we investigated how expectations and complexity affect shoe print examinations and to what extent differences exist between beginners and experienced examiners. Twelve examiners assessed similarity between a shoe print and a shoe for eight different cases. For half the cases expectation was induced by providing additional incriminating evidence. A complex case meant that the print was relatively noisy, for example because the perpetrator rotated his foot. A simple case meant that the print was clear. The results showed that there was no effect of expectation and no effect of experience. Only complexity affected the examiners' assessments: when the background was noisy, the acquired features received a lower evidential value than when the background was clear. Apparently, examiners compensated for the quality of the print and were more cautious in drawing conclusions when prints were less clear. Even though the results allow for some optimism with regard to the influence of expectations on shoe print examinations, it has to be taken into account that the Dutch procedure is supported by a formal guideline, which may (partly) explain the present findings.