Working with Misspecified Regression Models

Objectives

Conventional statistical modeling in criminology assumes proper model specification. Very strong and unrebutted criticisms have existed for decades. Some respond that although the criticisms are correct, there is for observational data no alternative. In this paper, we provide an alternative.

Methods

We draw on work in econometrics and statistics from several decades ago, updated with the most recent thinking to provide a way to properly work with misspecified models.

Results

We show how asymptotically, unbiased regression estimates can be obtained along with valid standard errors. Conventional statistical inference can follow.

Conclusions

If one is prepared to work with explicit approximations of a “true” model, defensible analyses can be obtained. The alternative is working with models about which all of the usual criticisms hold.

     

Do trials of perpetrators retraumatize crime victims?

Attendance at trials of perpetrators could be retraumatizing for crime victims suffering from posttraumatic stress disorder. To investigate this hypothesis, two studies were conducted in which retraumatization was defined as a significant increase in posttraumatic stress reactions. A cross-sectional study of 137 victims of rape and nonsexual assault revealed that trial variables do virtually not predict posttraumatic stress reactionsat a time several years after trial. A longitudinal study of 31 victims of rape and nonsexual assault revealed intraindividual stability of posttraumatic stress reactions for the time interval from a few weeks before the trial to a few weeks after the trial; in addition, interindividual stability was high. The results of both studies do not support the retraumatization hypothesis, which should therefore be used with caution.     

Age determination of an unknown body in early adulthood

The authors report on the estimation of the age of an unidentified deceased adolescent in connection with the body's identification. A physical examination by a forensic physician and an examination by a forensic dentist, including determination of the dental status and an X-ray of the teeth were used to estimate the age. In addition, an X-ray of the left hand as well as an X-ray and MRT scan of the clavicles were carried out by forensic radiologists. Combining the results of the individual examinations, the age of the deceased was estimated to range between 18 and 21 years. In the course of the police investigation it was found out that the deceased was 20 years and 7 months old. This has led to the conclusion that combined use of methods allows the age even of adolescents to be determined with relatively high accuracy and a minimum of time and effort.     

Pathology of peliosis

Peliosis is a pathological entity characterized by the gross appearance of multiple cyst-like, blood-filled cavities within parenchymatous organs. Peliosis has been related to several underlying debilitating illnesses such as tuberculosis, hematological malignancies, the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), and post-transplant immunodeficiency, as well as intravenous drug abuse, chronic alcoholism, and in conjunction with the intake of oral contraceptives or steroids. The classical pathoanatomical concept is based upon the opinion that peliosis exclusively develops in organs belonging to the mononuclear phagocytic system (liver, spleen, bone marrow, and lymph nodes). However, a paucity of studies indicates that other organs such as lungs, parathyroid glands, and kidneys may be affected too. Concerning the underlying pathogenetic mechanisms of onset and maintenance of peliosis, the morphological data obtained by different investigators suggest that there is more than one path of formal pathogenesis (e.g., congenital malformation of vessels manifesting under altered local intravascular pressure conditions, acquired vascular disorder triggered by toxic noxae, active proliferation of vessels corresponding to the benign end on the spectrum of neoplastic vascular lesions). In the liver, at gross inspection, the peliotic lesions give the cut sections a "swiss cheese" appearance. Microscopically, two different types of peliosis can be distinguished in the liver: (1) "parenchymal peliosis" consisting of irregular cavities that are neither lined by sinusoidal cells nor by fibrous tissue, and (2) "phlebectatic peliosis" characterized by regular, spherical cavities lined by endothelium and/or fibrosis. One of the differential diagnoses that most closely resembles peliosis hepatis is secondary hepatic congestion due to veno-occlusive disease or the Budd-Chiari syndrome. In the spleen, the peliotic lesions may be arranged sporadically, disseminated, or in clusters in an uneven distribution pattern. Histologically, the cavities show frequently well-demarcated margins that may appear focally lined by sinusoidal endothelium, or totally lack a clear cell lining. Differential diagnoses are hemangiomas and involvement of the spleen in hairy-cell leukaemia. Since the disease may culminate in spontaneous rupture of the affected organ and thus may mimic a violent death at autopsy, peliosis is far more than just another morphological curiosity. Awareness of peliosis at autopsy as well as an appreciation for the histopathological changes in less characteristic or advanced cases may become an important issue for both the forensic and clinical pathologist.     

Homicide by stab to the neck with subsequent attempted suicide by cut to the neck

A 37-year-old Turkish woman was fatally injured by her 65-year-old Turkish husband with a stab to the cervical region. After her death he inflicted a deep cut to his own neck, which he survived thanks to immediate medical assistance. To the authors' knowledge this combination of a homicidal stab to the neck and a suicidal cut to the neck has not been described before. Kosher butchering, which is common in the couple's traditional cultural environment, is discussed as possible reason for the choice of the neck as site for applying sharp violence. It may have induced the perpetrator to choose this anatomical region.     

The hidden costs of power-sharing: Reproducing insurgent violence in Africa

This article analyzes some factors underlying the spread ofinsurgent violence in Africa. It focuses on the impact externalfactors have on power struggles on the continent. The firstof these is the unsteady support for democracy from Westerndonors, which has impeded more far-reaching domestic changesin much of Africa. Second are wider changes in the internationalsetting that dramatically enhanced the international standingof armed movements in the post-1989 period. The article arguesthat the interplay of both factors has induced would-be leadersto conquer state power by violent rather than non-violent means.This becomes particularly evident in regard to Western effortsto solve violent conflict through power-sharing agreements.The hypothesis is put forward that the institutionalizationof this practice for the sake of ‘peace’, i.e. providingrebels with a share of state power, has important demonstrationeffects across the continent. It creates an incentive structurewould-be leaders can seize upon by embarking on the insurgentpath as well. As a result, and irrespective of their effectivenessin any given case, power-sharing agreements may contribute tothe reproduction of insurgent violence.