Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

The use of human skin in the fabrication of a bite mark template: two case reports

Comparison of a suspected biter's dental arches with the patterned injury of a bite mark is especially difficult when the bite occurs in an anatomic location with a small radius of curvature or with complex or compound curves. The authors present two case reports in which human skin was used as a template for the reproduction of a bite. In one case the victim's skin was used; in the other, the skin of a anatomically similar person was used. The use of inked dental casts, photography, and transparent overlays significantly reduced the errors common to analysis of bite marks in these highly curved areas.     

Identification of the driver in two-rider motorcycle accidents. Inguinal contusion-laceration as an indication of the driver

In motorcycle accidents involving two riders, medicolegal identification of the driver is necessary when one or both riders die. It is particularly important in the latter case, because the survivor almost always insists that he or she was not driving. One characteristic injury that distinguishes the driver from the passenger is inguinal contusion-laceration (accompanied internally by pelvic fracture). This injury, caused by collision of the pelvis with the fuel tank, identifies the driver.     

THE EFFECT OF GENDER ON THE DECISION TO INCARCERATE BEFORE AND AFTER THE INTRODUCTION OF SENTENCING GUIDELINES*

The present study explores the relationships between gender and imprisonment decisions in Minnesota before and after the introduction of sentencing guidelines. Results from a series of logistic regression models indicate that gender alone did not have a significant impact on the likelihood of imprisonment, but women with dependent children were significantly less likely to be imprisoned before sentencing guidelines and in the years subsequent to their implementation. The findings suggest that despite the introduction of sentencing reforms, court officials tend to return to issues of substantive justice, and they appear unable to shed their individual or organizational ideas of fairness in sentencing.     

A case of sudden infant death due to massive hemorrhage in primitive neuroectodermal tumor.

A case of the sudden death of a 14-month-old girl due to massive hemorrhage in a primitive neuroectodermal tumor (PNET) is presented along with a review of the relevant literature. PNET is a rare, malignant brain neoplasm occurring predominantly in children.     

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification and human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DQ alpha oligonucleotide typing on biological evidence samples: casework experience.

The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method of specific gene amplification was used in casework to synthesize millions of copies of the polymorphic second exon of the human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DQ alpha (or DQA1) locus from a variety of evidence samples. The HLA-DQ alpha allelic variants in the amplified deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) were determined in a rapid non-radioactive test by hybridization to sequence-specific oligonucleotide probes in both the dot-blot and reverse dot-blot formats. This genetic typing system has been subjected to blind proficiency testing; the performance of this test in the analysis of experimentally mixed samples was also evaluated. As of August 1990, over 250 cases have been tested and more than 2000 individual evidence (bloodstains, semen stains, individual hairs, bone fragments, and tissue sections) and reference samples have been analyzed. The first 198 of these cases are summarized in this paper; in 65% of the cases with conclusive results a suspect was included, and in 35%, all suspects were excluded. Individual cases as well as some of the general issues relating to forensic science analysis and this genetic typing system are discussed. The high rate of exclusion reported here combined with the ability of PCR to type old evidence samples suggests the relevance of this genetic test for postconviction review; two cases in which the convicted suspect was excluded are discussed.