Afghanistan from 2012-2014: Is A Successful Transition Possible?

The issue is not whether a successful transition in Afghanistan is possible,it is rather whether some form of meaningful transition is probable-a very different thing.The answer is a modest form of strategic success is still possible,but that it is too soon to know whether it is probable.The Afghan government,the U.S.and its allies,and aid donors have not made enough collective progress to assign a clear level of probability.Equally important,it is too soon to know what level of forces they will maintain in Afghanistan through the end of 2014 and beyond,what levels of military and civil aid they will provide,and what level of success Afghanistan can achieve moving forward.     

The nuclear weapons issue in the 1983 British general election

Abstract. In common with many other Western European countries, the issue of nuclear weapons rose to political prominence in Britain in the course of the 1980s. However, whereas the issue was often taken up by newly formed environmentalist parties elsewhere, it differentiated the traditional parties one from the other in Britain. This was made possible by the Labour party's manifesto commitment to unilateral nuclear disarmament. This article details the views of the British electorate on the nuclear issue and assesses its importance for individual voting patterns in the 1983 general election. The electorate shows itself able to distinguish between, and hold opposing views on, nuclear weapons in principle and control over them in practice. Its general support for them, however, means that Labour's perceived hostility to them cost it a considerable number of votes in net terms. These losses could have been mitigated, perhaps even turned into gains, had the party emphasised the security problems stemming from Britain's lack of control over American nuclear weapons on its soil.     

Book reviews

Richard Parsons. The Carpets of Afghanistan. London: Oriental Textile Press, 1983; £25.

Michael Rywkin. Moscow's Muslim Challenge: Soviet Central Asia. London: C. Hurst & Company, 1982. 183 pp., bibliography and index.     

Validation of chest X-ray comparisons for unknown decedent identification

Comparing skeletal structures between antemortem and postmortem chest radiographs is widely used by forensic specialists from many disciplines to positively identify unknown decedents. However, validity assessments of this method have been fairly limited. This study had three objectives: 1) to quantify the reliability of ante- and postmortem chest radiograph comparison for decedent identification; 2) to identify useful radiologic features supporting decedent identification; and 3) to recognize sources of error in decedent identification related to use of comparative radiographs. A forensic pathologist, a forensic anthropologist, and two radiologists participated in the study. Our results showed that chest radiograph comparisons proved reliable, if basic decedent information was provided, and antemortem and postmortem radiographs were adequately positioned and exposed. A "morphological approach" using normal anatomical structures for comparison may provide the most efficient method for accurate identification.     

Elections and Economic Turbulence in Brazil: Candidates, Voters, and Investors

The relation between elections and the economy in Latin America might be understood by considering the agency of candidates and the issue of policy preference congruence between investors and voters. The preference congruence model proposed in this article highlights political risk in emerging markets. Certain risk features increase the role of candidate campaign rhetoric and investor preferences in elections. When politicians propose policies that can appease voters and investors, elections may have a limited effect on economic indicators, such as inflation. But when voter and investor priorities differ significantly, deterioration of economic indicators is more likely. Moreover, voter and investor congruence is more likely before stabilization, when an inverted Philips curve exists, as opposed to following stabilization, when a more traditional Philips curve emerges.     

布莱尔、布朗的鹰谷议程与全球政治的不平等发展

2005年7月在苏格兰鹰谷(Gleneagles)举行的八国首脑会议上,布莱尔和布朗提出了帮助贫困国家发展的议程。通过反思“鹰谷”会议及其后续会议的成果与启示,批评布莱尔、布朗和“变贫困为历史”活动内在包含的概念框架,可以看到,“变贫穷为历史”的目标是无法实现的。在金融、贸易和环境领域等发展策略的三个主要竞技场中,世界各国于一种复杂的结构不平等模式中运作。布莱尔和布朗的鹰谷议程不得不面对不平等发展的全球政治,而且这个议程由于这些政治条件的限制被弄得歪七扭八。