Using feedback simulation to test educational finance policies

A system dynamics model of the dynamics of special education reimbursement policies, based upon work completed in Massachusetts, is presented. The model is used to analyze the causes of unstable growth in special education costs and to propose policy options for controlling such costs. Because of an elaborated ability to represent the behaviors of local school districts, the system dynamics technology was found to be ideally suited to this type of policy analysis. However, the existence of the elaborated feedback structure would make it extremely cumbersome to use the system dynamics model to project annual costs on a locality-by-locality basis, such projections being the principal strength of traditional education finance models. This trade-off between two modeling technologies suggests that analysts must carefully match their audience, purpose, and modeling technology to attain best analyses.     

Using the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) to predict in-prison aggressive behavior in a Swiss offender population

The present study is a first-time evaluation of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide's (VRAG) predictive quality for institutional violence in a German-speaking country. The VRAG was assessed for 106 violent and sexual offenders based on their files. Violent infractions during imprisonment were evaluated using the files of the state penitentiary. Results show in accordance with previous studies only a moderate effect between VRAG scores and institutional misconduct. However, these findings were only significant for participants with a sex crime as index offense. In the study, the VRAG was unable to predict verbal and physical violence by violent offenders. The implications of these findings for institutional risk management and the future development of intramural detection of participants at risk in the German-speaking part of Europe are discussed.     

A historical institutionalist view on merging LULUCF and REDD+ in a post-2020 climate agreement

In the context of the UNFCCC negotiation process on a global climate agreement, policy makers are looking for approaches on how to significantly raise the mitigation ambition of all relevant sectors, including the land use sector. Aside of the formal negotiations some Parties to the UNFCCC have started an informal dialogue and discuss how to merge the fragmented accounting rules for mitigation relevant land use activities, in particular those concerning forest-sector emissions. Stressing that ‘history matters’, we use a historical institutionalist perspective to assess the institutional pathways of the different accounting rules for developed and developing countries, their mutual relationship, and in how far they are supportive or counterproductive for this endeavour. Our empirical analysis shows that Parties tend to use any modification phase in the negotiation process to water down already achieved agreements, and that negotiating modalities after targets have been agreed is not conducive either. In the efforts of specifying the Paris agreement, merging existing rules into a common accounting framework is likely to further compromise the exisiting weak rules and modalities, and potentially what negotiators consider as ‘environmental integrity’. With this, a formal negotiation of common rules for the accounting of the land use sector may yield an outcome below what has been achieved since the negotiations on a post-2020 agreement started in 2005. We conclude that politically acceptable approaches for the land use sector that also contribute to the overall objective of raising ambition should avoid reopening already agreed decisions on rules and modalities.     

Private Schools and the Parents that Choose Them: Empirical Evidence from the Danish School Voucher System

Research on the effect of school choice on student performance has generally been based on small-scale experiments or comparisons of Catholic and public schools in the United States. Recent studies indicate, however, that the market competition stemming from school vouchers does not affect all private schools equally. This study makes use of individual-level register data on the performance of more than 30,000 students in Denmark, where private schools have been voucher-financed for more than 100 years, while public schools are governed and financed by the politico-administrative system. Using an instrumental variable model to exclude selection effects, the results show no significant average effect of private schooling on final examination scores. However, a multilevel model shows that private schools of high socio-economic status perform better than similar public schools, while private schools of low socio-economic status under-perform – even for individual students with high socio-economic status. This indicates that the institutional setting of a voucher system is not enough to raise educational performance in general, arguably because some parents choose schools on the basis of non-academic criteria.     

On the potential of incorporating administrative register data into randomized experiments

Journal of Experimental Criminology - Administrative register data offer an opportunity to increase the range and nature of experimental evaluations. In addition to providing a range of offending...     

Dynamiken von Gesetzgebungsinitiativen der Bundes- und Landesparteien im deutschen Föderalismus. Eine Analyse für den Bereich der Rechte Minderjähriger, 1990 bis 2014

The article explores how parties influence legal change in federal systems. Analysing 310 initiatives to change German legislation concerning minors’ rights (which fall into federal and land jurisdiction) for the period from 1990 to 2014, the study opens up empirically a new legislative domain which has been largely ignored by political science so far. It investigates the initiating parties, issues, positions, timing, and cross-level government constellation and corroborates that parties in Germany coordinate their legislative initiatives across lands and levels. At the same time, the data indicate that German land parties are not mere agents of the federal parties and do not utilize the länder level for law-making against federal majorities. The many federal and länder initiatives instead give room for discourse and provide incentives for (re)adjusting party positions which in the long run fosters legal changes.     

How to increase citizen coproduction: replication and extension of existing research

ABSTRACT

The value of coproduction—the joint productive efforts by regular producers, such as teachers, and consumer producers, such as parents, in helping children to learn—has been recognized for some time. However, strong empirical evidence of how these benefits can be achieved is scarce, and recent research has found mixed results. A new randomized field trial replicates elements of previous studies and extends them by using an additional age-appropriate outcome measure. Methodologically, the results illustrate the challenges of carrying out replication studies because when target groups change, outcome measures also often change. Substantially, the findings suggest that a government initiative providing parents with materials and information to enhance parents’ coproduction efforts can be extended to a broader target group of parents. Together, the findings illustrate how findings from single studies should be generalized with caution and the value of working systematically with replications and extensions.