Deliberative Innovation to Different Effect: Consensus Conferences in Denmark, France, and the United States

Democratic reformers are attracted by the role that advisory forums composed of lay citizens can play in public consultation on complex policy issues (such as participatory technology assessment). Using a comparative study of consensus conferences on the issue of genetically modified food in Denmark, France, and the United States, the authors show that the potential of such deliberative "mini-publics" is quite different in different sorts of political system. They attend to the mode of establishment, perceived legitimacy, policy impact, and influence on public debate of the forum in each case. In actively inclusive Denmark,mini-publics are deployed in integrative fashion; in exclusive France, in managerial fashion; and in the passively inclusive United States, in advocacy fashion. Proponents and practitioners of deliberative participatory reforms should take into account the constraints and opportunities revealed by this analysis and attend to the different roles that mini-publics might play in different political systems.     

Consideration of the probative value of single donor 15-plex STR profiles in UK populations and its presentation in UK courts

The adoption of new 15 locus STR multiplex systems into UK forensic science would be facilitated by agreed guidelines for reporting the strength of DNA evidence using likelihood ratios. To facilitate such an agreement, we present an analysis of previously published UK allele frequencies for white Caucasian, Afro-Caribbean and Indo-Pakistani populations and investigate their effect on likelihood ratios for single donor profiles. We consider the implication of the five additional loci and suggest a procedure for reporting likelihood ratios for 15-plex STR profiles.     

Developmental validation of the PowerPlex ESX 16 and PowerPlex ESX 17 Systems

We describe the developmental validation study performed on the PowerPlex^® ESX 16 (European Standard Extended 16) and the PowerPlex^® ESX 17 Systems, part of a suite of four new DNA profiling kits developed by Promega in response to the ENFSI and EDNAP groups’ call for new STR multiplexes for Europe. The PowerPlex^® ESX 16 System combines the 11 loci compatible with the UK National DNA Database, contained within the AmpFlSTR^® SGM Plus^® PCR Amplification Kit, with five additional loci: D2S441, D10S1248, D22S1045, D1S1656 and D12S391. The multiplex was designed to incorporate these five new loci as mini- and midi-STRs while maintaining the loci found in the AmpFlSTR^® SGM Plus^® kit as standard size. The PowerPlex^® ESX 17 System amplifies the same loci as the PowerPlex^® ESX 16 System, but with the addition of a primer pair for the SE33 locus. Tests were designed to address the developmental validation guidelines issued by the Scientific Working Group on DNA Analysis Methods (SWGDAM), and those of the DNA Advisory Board (DAB). Samples processed include DNA mixtures, PCR reactions spiked with inhibitors, a sensitivity series, and 306 United Kingdom donor samples to determine concordance with data generated with the AmpFlSTR^® SGM Plus^® kit. Allele frequencies from 242 white Caucasian samples collected in the United Kingdom are also presented. The PowerPlex^® ESX 16 and ESX 17 Systems are robust and sensitive tools, suitable for the analysis of forensic DNA samples. Full profiles were routinely observed with 62.5 pg of a fully heterozygous single source DNA template. In mixture analysis, a range of 52-95% of unique minor contributor alleles was observed at 19:1 mixture ratios where only 25 pg of the minor component was present. Improved sensitivity combined with the robustness afforded by smaller amplicons has substantially improved the quantity of information obtained from degraded samples, and the improved chemistry confers exceptional tolerance to high levels of laboratory prepared inhibitors.     

Looking to the future: Prospective economic voting in 2008 Presidential Elections

Despite the economic turmoil of the time, a typical study of vote choice in the 2008 US Presidential Election would (falsely) find little evidence that voters’ opinions about the future state of the economy affected their vote choice. We argue that this misleading conclusion results from serious measurement error in the standard prospective economic evaluations survey question. Relying instead on a revised question, included for the first time in the 2008 American National Election Study, we find that most respondents condition their prospective economic evaluations on potential election outcomes, and that these evaluations are an important determinant of vote choice. A replication in a very different political context – the 2008 Ghanaian election – yields similar results.     

The Political Economy of Noncompliance in China: the case of industrial energy policy

One of the greatest challenges facing China today is the central government's ability to ensure that policies are implemented effectively at the local level, particularly policies that seek to make China's economic growth model more sustainable. These policies face resistance from local authorities and enterprises that benefit from the status quo. This raises a key research question: why do some provinces more fully implement these central policies? We argue the extent of local implementation is best conceptualized as a rational balance between economic and political incentives: localities with regulatory autonomy, low regulatory capacity and alternative interests will not fully implement policies that are at odds with local economic imperatives. By examining a critical case of central policy implementation—industrial energy intensity reduction in the eleventh five-year plan—this article demonstrates that, regardless of industrial makeup or economic development, provinces that have greater regulatory autonomy for noncompliance coupled with alternative economic interests do not, on average, perform as well. Using a nested analysis approach this study illustrates this argument with both quantitative analysis and original case study evidence from fieldwork interviews.