Detection of malingering in competency to stand trial evaluations

A simulation design with multiple contrast groups was used to test the effectiveness of two instruments, the Structured Interview of Reported Symptoms (SIRS) and the Georgia Court Competency Test—Mississippi State Hospital (GCCT-MSH) in detecting malingering of competency to stand trial. Thirty simulators were compared with 23 incompetent defendants, 25 competent defendants, 30 offender controls, and 7 suspected malingerers on both instruments. Results revealed that the simulators and suspected malingerers scored significantly higher on all of the SIRS primary scales and significantly lower on the GCCT-MSH than the three comparison groups. The SIRS had an overall hit rate of 97.8% using three or more primary scales as the criterion for malingering. Information concerning the simulator's strategies of deception is presented.     

Inferring Transition Probabilities from Repeated Cross Sections

This paper discusses a nonstationary, heterogeneous Markov modeldesigned to estimate entry and exit transition probabilitiesat the micro level from a time series of independent cross-sectionalsamples with a binary outcome variable. The model has its originsin the work of Moffitt and shares features with standard statisticalmethods for ecological inference. We outline the methodologicalframework proposed by Moffitt and present several extensionsof the model to increase its potential application in a widerarray of research contexts. We also discuss the relationshipwith previous lines of related research in political science.The example illustration uses survey data on American presidentialvote intentions from a five-wave panel study conducted by Pattersonin 1976. We treat the panel data as independent cross sectionsand compare the estimates of the Markov model with both dynamicpanel parameter estimates and the actual observations in thepanel. The results suggest that the proposed model providesa useful framework for the analysis of transitions in repeatedcross sections. Open problems requiring further study are discussed.     

Family formation and everyday travel in Britain since c.1850

This paper focuses on the extent to which everyday travel behaviour in Britain changes in relation to family responsibilities, and examines how this has altered over the past century and a half. It is argued that prior to the mid-twentieth century changes in the family such as increased child-care responsibilities barely influenced the modes of transport used for everyday travel, but that increasingly in the later twentieth century people adjusted their travel behaviour during the family formation phases of the life cycle. In particular, parents of young children have become more car-dependent and less likely to walk or cycle. Data are drawn from two separate projects, one that collected travel life histories from the past half-century as context for research on cycling in later life, and one that uses personal diaries to reveal everyday mobility strategies of people in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. It is argued that the observed changes are due not only to increased access to a wide range of different transport forms, especially the motor car, but also to changes in societal perceptions of risk and norms of travel behaviour. In conclusion, it is suggested that more awareness of past travel behaviours could aid the development and implementation of more sustainable transport policies in the UK.     

新时代青年政治引领的价值、挑战和策略

青年是中华民族伟大复兴的生力军,是与新时代脉搏同步跳动的新力量.青年阶段是人生的拔节孕穗期,最需要精心引领、引导和栽培.切实做好青年政治引领,对于为实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦凝聚青春磅礴力量具有重要的时代意义和价值.新时代青年思想活跃、思维敏捷,主体意识和参与意识强,交流交往的国际化程度高,信息获取及时广泛,价值认同多元并存,关注点发散且迁移多变.传统的青年政治引领,面临形式枯燥、吸引力弱化、受外部环境影响和干扰较大等挑战,工作相对乏力.针对青年工作的现实需要,提出做好新时代青年政治引领的对策:一是夯实理论基础;二是营造成长环境;三是突出价值认同;四是创新方式方法;五是践行青春担当.     

日本中小企业全球化经营的新趋势及其对我国的启示

中小企业在日本经济发展过程中一直扮演重要的角色。进入20世纪90年代以后,随着经济全球化和信息全球化趋势的日益加强,日本中小企业对外直接投资模式出现了新的发展变化,其在投资规模、投资地区结构、投资方式以及信息技术利用等方面都呈现出新的特征。研究日本中小企业全球化经营新特点和发展趋势,对我国中小企业如何开展对外投资具有重要的启示。     

大数据在应急管理中的应用

当前大数据正在改变世界,而数据收集和分析则是提升应急管理功能的重要手段。在对大数据内涵和具体案例进行分析后就会发现,大数据在应急管理中的应用主要有大数据技术和大数据思维两种方式。在应急管理的事前准备、事中响应和事后救援与恢复的每一阶段都可以引入大数据的应用,每个阶段对大数据的应用程度也会因其需要应对内容的不同而有所差别。大数据的应用有助于提高应急管理效率、节省成本和减少损失。我国需要在大数据战略、大数据开放政策、大数据在应急管理中具体应用形式等方面做出部署与探索。