The Limits to Coercive Consociationalism in Northern Ireland

The merits of consociation as a means of solving the Northern Ireland conflict are presented through contrasting it with other ways of stabilizing highly divided political systems. Why voluntary consociation has been unsuccessful in Northern Ireland and unfortunately is likely to remain so is explained. The signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement (AIA) must be understood against the background of the failure of previous consociational experiments. The AIA partly represented a shift in British strategy from voluntary to coercive consociationalism. The prospects for this coercive consociational strategy and variants on it are evaluated.     

The Dalriada Document: Towards a Multinational Compromise that Respects Democratic Diversity in the United Kingdom

Northern Ireland and Scotland could and should stay within the European Union while remaining inside the United Kingdom. This proposal need not prevent, and may facilitate, England and Wales in leaving the EU, and it is in accordance with the respective preferences of the peoples of the two Unions who voted in the advisory referendum held on 23 June 2016. Prime Minister May and her Cabinet should address carefully the question of whether to trigger Article 50, or instead to give notice that only parts of the UK—England and Wales—will be leaving the EU. The price of enforcing the entirety of the UK's exit from the EU may be lasting damage to the two Unions that make up the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.     

Real Solutions for Fake News? Measuring the Effectiveness of General Warnings and Fact-Check Tags in Reducing Belief in False Stories on Social Media

Political Behavior - Social media has increasingly enabled “fake news” to circulate widely, most notably during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. These intentionally false...     

Lying About Terrorism

Conventional wisdom holds that terrorism is committed for strategic reasons as a form of costly signaling to an audience. However, since over half of terrorist attacks are not credibly claimed, conventional wisdom does not explain many acts of terrorism. This article suggests that there are four lies about terrorism that can be incorporated in a rationalist framework: false claiming, false flag, the hot-potato problem, and the lie of omission. Each of these lies about terrorism can be strategically employed to help a group achieve its desired goal(s) without necessitating that an attack be truthfully claimed.     

Extremist Outbidding in Ethnic Party Systems is Not Inevitable: Tribune Parties in Northern Ireland

The ethnic outbidding thesis predicts centrifugal polarisation in ethnically divided party systems. We argue instead that the incentives of power-sharing institutions can encourage the development of electoral strategies based on 'ethnic tribune appeals' in which parties combine robust ethnic identity representation with increased pragmatism over resource allocation. We test these arguments in Northern Ireland and show that though evidence of direct vote switching from moderate parties to ostensibly 'extreme' parties is prima facie consistent with the outbidding thesis, attitudinal convergence between the nationalist and unionist communities on the main political issues is not. The recent electoral success of the DUP and Sinn Féin can instead be explained by these parties' 'ethnic tribune' appeals. Many voters simultaneously endorse peace, prosperity and (increasingly) power sharing but also want the strongest voice to protect their ethnonational interests. Identity voting for ethnic tribune parties implies a degree of resolve in advocating ethnic group interests, but does not entail the increased polarisation implied by outbidding models. Like their voters, ethnic tribune parties can be simultaneously pragmatic (with regard to resources) and intransigent (with regard to identity), so that despite appearances to the contrary, the power-sharing institutions in Northern Ireland incentivise centripetal dynamics that inhibit outbidding.     

Voluntary and involuntary care: three-year study of demographic and diagnostic admission statistics at an inner-city adult psychiatry unit

Individuals with mental disorders can, under specific circumstances, be detained and treated against their wishes. In 2009, there were 1633 involuntary admissions in Ireland, accounting for 8.1% of all psychiatric admissions. We examined demographic and diagnostic factors associated with involuntary admission in a general adult psychiatry service in Dublin's north inner-city over a retrospective three-year period. The overall admission rate was 450.5 admissions per 100,000 population per year (deprivation-adjusted rate: 345.7), which is lower than the national rate (476.3). The involuntary admission rate was 67.7 (deprivation-adjusted rate: 51.9), which is higher than the national rate (38.5). Fifteen per cent of admissions were involuntary (for all or part of the admission), which is higher than the national proportion (8.1%) but the same as that reported in another inner-city psychiatry service (15.7%). The proportion of admissions that was involuntary was higher amongst individuals from outside Ireland (33.9%) compared to those from Ireland (12.0%) (p<0.001). Country of origin was, however, related to diagnosis: 53.2% of admissions of individuals from outside Ireland were with schizophrenia, compared to 18.5% of admissions of individuals from Ireland (p<0.001). Diagnosis was, in turn, related to admission status: 37.5% of admissions with schizophrenia were involuntary compared to 15% overall (p<0.001). On multi-variable testing, diagnosis was the only independent predictor of admission status (p=0.01) (R(2)=35.2%); country of origin was not an independent predictor of admission status. Deprivation accounts for part, but not all, of the high rate of involuntary admission in Dublin's inner-city. Diagnosis accounts for one third of the variance in admission status between individuals. Further study is required to determine what factors account for the remaining two thirds (e.g. symptoms, insight) and to clarify better the relationships between admission status, diagnosis and country of origin. There is a strong need for enhanced focus on the mental health needs of individuals from outside of Ireland, especially in Dublin's north inner-city.