Competing Concerns: Balancing Human Rights and National Security in US Economic Aid Allocation

This paper theorizes that the effect of human rights violations on US economic aid is conditioned by the salience of US national security concerns. National security concerns will be more salient in situations where recipients contribute to maintaining US security and in temporal eras when the USA is perceived as being under increased external threat. As the relational and temporal salience of national security increases, any negative effect of human rights violations on US economic aid should decrease. I test this hypothesis by examining US economic aid allocations to states from 1977 to 2005. The results show that the salience of national security concerns present in the US-recipient relationship does condition the relationship between human rights violations and US economic aid. There are also significant differences between different temporal eras of US foreign aid allocation. Future work should address how conflicts between interests and values in US foreign policy are negotiated.     

Decoding hidden darknet networks: What we learned about the illicit fentanyl trade on AlphaBay

The opioid epidemic, impacted from the proliferation of fentanyl, has added impetus to the need to detect fentanyl, sources of fentanyl, and places where fentanyl and drugs adulterated with fentanyl are available. Many darknet marketplaces (DNMs) have rules that ban fentanyl. However, it is unclear how these affect the fentanyl market. Using the AlphaBay DNM as a case study, we conducted mixed methods qualitative research. We scraped and analyzed data from the AlphaBay I2P website using, among other methods, content and social network analysis, to uncover hidden fentanyl networks. Our research highlights the next evolution of darknet marketplaces – the migration of DNMs from Tor to I2P and the methods that can be used identify fentanyl networks, irrespective of where sites are: I2P, Tor, or multihomed on I2P and Tor. Despite its ban in the Global AlphaBay Rules, our research revealed the sale of fentanyl on the AlphaBay DNM. Unlike previous studies, our findings predominantly revealed the covert sale of fentanyl on AlphaBay and predatory vendors selling illicit drugs, which unbeknownst to buyers, contained fentanyl. To a lesser extent, our findings identified the overt sale of fentanyl patches on AlphaBay. Although we examined only one DNM, the prevalence of the covert sale of fentanyl and the presence of predatory vendors underscores the importance of research that decodes the language of vendors who surreptitiously sell fentanyl or drugs adulterated with fentanyl or other illicit substances. The results of our research can inform strategies aimed at disrupting and dismantling DNM fentanyl networks.     

Coup Risk,Counterbalancing, and International Conflict

Contrary to the literature on rallies-around-the-flag, this article argues that, in some circumstances, leaders may use international conflict to promote domestic divisiveness. More specifically, the threat of a military coup generally prompts leaders to divide their militaries (a practice known as counterbalancing), and even to engage in international conflict to ensure that various branches of their own armed forces remain distrustful of one another. Two empirical tests of these claims are offered: a large-N statistical analysis that examines whether coup risk leads to counterbalancing, and whether counterbalanced nations engage in more low-level military conflict (controlling for other causes of conflict); and a case study of Georgia shortly after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Both empirical studies support the arguments advanced by the authors.

     

Narcotics and Drug Abuse

Fifty years ago, the U.S. President's Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice saw drugs as a modest but growing problem for the criminal justice system. The reemergence of heroin occupied the Commission's attention. Many recommendations are admirable, such as a focus on public health interventions and a concern about the appropriateness of criminal prohibitions on marijuana use. Throughout the past 50 years, the problem has both massively expanded and changed in many ways; the principal drug of abuse has shifted multiple times, as has the populations most affected by them. Policy, largely stuck on tough enforcement for 30 years, is now moving in a direction more consistent with the Commission's views. Researchers have made only modest advances in understanding what enforcement can do to reduce drug use and related problems, but society has made some progress in developing interventions that have both a sound theoretical base and the promise of avoiding the unintended negative consequences of the highly punitive system of the 1980s and 1990s. A Commission in 2018 would face a much different and larger problem that has transformed many aspects of criminal justice. Investing in more data collection and evaluation research would be among its major recommendations, as would an admission of considerable uncertainty about what to do with the latest twist in the U.S. drug problem, the addition of the much more dangerous fentanyls.     

Characterizing the Performance of Pipe Bombs

Pipe bombs of steel or PVC fragment in reproducible patterns when similarly configured. The power of the explosion correlates with number, mass, and size of the fragments recovered, where a large number of small, low‐mass fragments indicate a high‐power event and vice versa. In discussing performance, describing pipe fragmentation pattern by fragment weight distribution mapping (FWDM) or fragment surface area distribution mapping (FSADM) was useful. When fillers detonated, detonation velocities of ~4.4 mm/μs were measured. In such cases, side walls of the pipe were thrown first; the average fragment velocity was ~1000 km/s. In deflagrations, the end cap was first thrown; fragment velocities were only ~240 km/s. Blast overpressures varied; at 10 feet, 2 × 12 inch steel pipes containing ~550 g of detonable mixture produced overpressures of 5–6 psi; similar nondetonating pipes produced less than 2 psi. Maximum fragment throw distances were 250–300 m, with an average of ~100 m.