A State Census of Unsubmitted Sexual Assault Kits: Comparing Forensic DNA Testing Outcomes by Geographic and Population Density Characteristics*

A growing number of U.S. cities and states have large numbers of unsubmitted sexual assault kits (SAKs) in police property facilities. Prior research conducted in large urban cities has found that testing these kits yields a sizable number of DNA profiles that meet FBI eligibility for upload to the national criminal DNA database CODIS (Combined DNA Index System) and uploaded profiles return a substantial number of matches to existing criminal profiles in CODIS. It is unknown whether these findings are unique to large urban cities with high crime rates. The purpose of current study was to document forensic testing outcomes from a state census of previously unsubmitted SAKs, which included large urban–suburban centers, as well as smaller cities and rural counties. We inventoried all previously unsubmitted SAKs in Michigan (N = 3422 SAKs) and submitted all kits for forensic DNA testing. A total of n = 1239 SAKs had a DNA profile that met eligibility for upload into CODIS (36.2% unconditional, 56.5% conditional CODIS eligible rate) and n = 585 SAKs yielded a CODIS Hit (17.1% unconditional, 47.2% conditional CODIS hit rate). These rates are consistent with studies from urban areas suggesting approximately half of SAKs tested yield a CODIS profile and approximately half of those uploaded profiles yield a hit. We compared SAK forensic testing outcomes by geographic and population density characteristics, and although rates were often higher in larger metropolitan areas, the obtained rates in micropolitan and rural areas suggest testing is warranted in smaller jurisdictions as well.     

Children Resisting Contact with a Parent Due to Abuse,Alienation, or Other Causes: Can a Proactive Role for Lawyers Contribute to Better Outcomes?

Lawyers have a significant role to play in cases where children are resisting contact with a parent, or the family appears to be going down that path, in the context of parental alienation, family violence or other factors. These cases pose great challenges for lawyers dealing with parents, as their clients are often anxiety‐ridden, angry, scared, and may have difficulty focussing on the long‐term interests of their children or themselves. A lawyer may be one of the first professionals encountered by the parents; lawyers for parents are advocates, but they are also in a position to provide wise counsel, to help triage the situation, provide practical advice, and early, helpful solutions. This article sets out practical suggestions for lawyers acting for parents. What can and should lawyers do to ensure they are part of the solution, not part of the problem? Lawyers need to be able to identify the potential problems and provide practical help to the family – whether they are acting for the “preferred” parent, the “rejected” parent, or the involved children.     

Recruitment,selection and promotion of visible‐minority and aboriginal police officers in selected Canadian police services

Abstract: The demographic composition of the Canadian police services in major cities generally does not reflect the diversity of the communities they serve, especially with respect to the representation of visible minorities and aboriginal peoples. As many commissions and inquiries on race relations issues in policing have reported, this lack of representation may be a factor that is hindering the effectiveness of police work in major urban centres across Canada. Hence, many commentators have called for increased representation of visible minorities and aboriginal people in the police services through effective recruitment, selection and promotion strategies. In this article, through the use of both quantitative and qualitative research methodologies, the authors identify and assess the various staffing and promotional policies and practices of thirteen police services across Canada. Results suggest that there has been some progress in the representation of visible minorities and aboriginal people in policing over the fifteen‐year period of this study. However there is still room for considerable improvement in the policies, practices and culture of police services if they are to become more representative of the diversity of the communities they serve. Sommaire: La composition démographique des corps de police canadiens dans les grandes villes ne reflète généralement pas la diversité des communautés desservies, particulièrement en ce qui concerne la représentation des minorités visibles et des Autochtones. Tel que signalé par de nombreuses commissions et enquêtes sur les questions de relations inter‐raciales se rapportant à la police, ce manque de représentation est peut‐être un facteur qui nuit à l'efficacité du travail de la police dans les grands centres urbains du Canada. De nombreux observateurs ont donc préconisé une plus forte représentation des minorités visibles et des Autochtones au sein des corps de police grâce à de bonnes stratégies de recrutement, de sélection et de promotion. En suivant une méthodologie de recherche à la fois quantitative et qualitative, nous identifions et évaluons dans cet article les diverses politiques et pratiques de dotation et de promotion de treize corps policiers à travers le Canada. D'après les résultats, la représentation des minorités visibles et des Autochtones dans les corps de police aurait connu un certain progrès au cows des quinze années étudiées. Cependant, il reste encore du chemin à faire en ce qui concerne les politiques, les pratiques et la culture des corps de police pour mieux représenter la diversité des communautés qu'ils desservent.     

Fertility control in historical China revisited: New methods for an old debate

We revisit the debate over the deliberate control of reproduction in historical China through a reanalysis of data from the Qing (1644–1911) Imperial Lineage that accounts for physiological or other differences between couples that affected their chances of having children. Even though studies of contemporary and historical European fertility suggest that failing to control for such differences may obscure evidence of parity-specific control, previous studies of historical Chinese fertility have not accounted for them. We show that in the Lineage, failure to account for such differences leads the association between the number of children already born and the chances of having another birth to appear to be positive, but that once they are accounted for properly, the relationship is inverted. Based on this, we conclude that lineage members adjusted their reproductive behavior based on the number of children. We also show that the sex composition and survival of previous births affected reproductive behavior. We conclude by suggesting that one way forward in the ongoing debate over fertility control in historical China is through application of such methods to other datasets and comparison of results. We also suggest that progress in the debate over fertility in historical China has been impeded by confusion over the definition of fertility control, so that some behaviors are recognized as fertility control by some parties in the debate but not others.     

Wealth stratification and reproduction in Northeast China, 1866–1907

Although the importance of material wealth to population growth is the core of Malthusian theory about population dynamics in pre-transitional societies, our understanding of the relationship between wealth and reproductive success in China is still limited. Until recently, there was little in the way of relevant data. In the absence of empirical evidence to the contrary, conceptions of the Chinese demographic regime were largely Malthusian, in that they did not account for the possible role of a fertility-based preventive check. In this study, we examine wealth differentials in reproduction in historical rural China by using newly available longitudinal individual level demographic and household level land holding data for 108,100 immigrants and their descendants living in 120 villages in Shuangcheng, Northeast China, between 1866 and 1907. Our study demonstrates a positive correlation between land holding status and marital fertility among the population under study. In addition, there is also a clear pattern of fertility differentials according to household context and other measures of socioeconomic status. Our findings suggest that these fertility differentials are not only results of certain social institutions and customs but also the consequences of couple's behavior of fertility control in response to socioeconomic and other household conditions.     

Addressing the National Academy of Sciences' challenge: a method for statistical pattern comparison of striated tool marks

In February 2009, the National Academy of Sciences published a report entitled "Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward." The report notes research studies must be performed to "…understand the reliability and repeatability…" of comparison methods commonly used in forensic science. Numerical classification methods have the ability to assign objective quantitative measures to these words. In this study, reproducible sets of ideal striation patterns were made with nine slotted screwdrivers, encoded into high-dimensional feature vectors, and subjected to multiple statistical pattern recognition methods. The specific methods employed were chosen because of their long peer-reviewed track records, widespread successful use for both industry and academic applications, rely on few assumptions on the data's underlying distribution, can be accompanied by standard confidence levels, and are falsifiable. For PLS-DA, correct classification rates of 97% or higher were achieved by retaining only eight dimensions (8D) of data. PCA-SVM required even fewer dimensions, 4D, for the same level of performance. Finally, for the first time in forensic science, it is shown how to use conformal prediction theory to compute identifications of striation patterns at a given level of confidence.     

Violence and Mental Illness: A New Analytic Approach

Empirical studies of violence and mental illness have used many different methods. Current state-of-the-art methods gather information from both subject and collateral interviews as well as official records. Typically these sources are treated as additive. Any report of a violent incident from any source is treated as true and all reported incidents are added to generate estimates of frequency. This paper presents a new statistical technique that uses the level of agreement between the sources of data to adjust those estimates. The evidence suggests that, although the additive technique for using multiple sources correctly estimates how many people are involved, it substantially underestimates the number of incidents. The new technique substantially reduces both false negatives and false positives.