Dynamic risk and sexual offending: the conundrum of assessment

ABSTRACT

The potential to reduce sexual victimisation, promote community safety, and decrease incarceration costs has resulted in considerable progress in terms of how we understand and predict sexual recidivism. And yet, the past decade has seen a degree of fragmentation emerge as research attention has shifted away from relative risk prediction (with its focus on static risk factors) to the identification of factors capable of reducing risk through intervention (i.e. dynamic risk). Although static and dynamic risk are often treated as orthogonal constructs [Beech, A. R., & Craig, L. A. (2012). The current status of static and dynamic factors in sexual offender risk assessment. Journal of Aggression, Conflict and Peace Research, 4(4), 169–185. doi:10.1108/17596591211270671], there are arguments to support a claim that the two are in fact functionally related [see Ward, T. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: Scientific kinds or predictive constructs. Psychology, Crime & Law (in 22(01–02), 2–16); Ward, T., & Beech, A. R. (2015). Dynamic risk factors: A theoretical dead-end? Psychology, Crime & Law, 21(2), 100–113. This discussion clearly affects how we assess dynamic risk. This review considered several commonly used methods of assessment and the evidence offered for their predictive accuracy. Of note were differences in the predictive accuracy of single psychometric measures versus composite scores of dynamic risk domains and the conventions used for establishing effect sizes for risk assessment tools.     

Understanding the Islamic State’s competitive advantages: Remaking state and nationhood in the Middle East and North Africa

While many researchers have examined the evolution and unique characteristics of the Islamic State (IS), taking an IS-centric approach has yet to illuminate the factors allowing for its establishment in the first place. To provide a clearer explanation for IS’s successes and improve analysts’ ability to predict future occurrences of similar phenomena, we analyze IS’s competitive advantages through the lens of two defining structural conditions in the Middle East North Africa (MENA): failure of state institutions and nationhood. It is commonly understood that the MENA faces challenges associated with state fragility, but our examination of state and national resiliency shows that Syria and Iraq yield the most deleterious results in the breakdown of the nation, suggesting that the combined failure of state and nation, as well as IS’s ability to fill these related vacuities, is a significant reason IS thrives there today. Against this backdrop, we provide a model of IS’s state- and nation-making project, and illustrate IS’s clear competitive advantages over all other state and non-state actors in both countries, except for Kurdish groupings. We conclude with recommendations on how policy-makers may begin halting and reversing the failure of both state and nation in Iraq and Syria.     

‘No girl wants to be called a slut!’: women,heterosexual casual sex and the sexual double standard

Recent shifts in the western cultural landscape mean that practices such as casual sex are contradictory terrains for women. Although permissive and liberal discourses construct women’s casual sex as acceptable, and even desirable, traditional discourses and a sexual double standard, do not. This article examines 15 young women’s negotiation of the sexual double standard in their talk of heterosexual casual sex. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis, with borrowed insights from discourse analysis, within a constructionist framework. All 15 women in this study gave accounts of an agentic and desiring sexuality, yet talked about casual sex and a sexual reputation in contradictory and contested ways. Three main themes were identified: the (un)acceptability of casual sex, a sexual reputation is what other girls have, and the making of a slut. Although an enduring sexual double standard was identified, all participants challenged its relevance and appropriateness. However, a sexual double standard also seeped into women’s accounts when talking about other women and the threat of garnering a negative sexual reputation was linked to women’s silencing of their own casual sex experiences. This work supports the continued need to dismantle un/changing codes of gendered heterosexuality.     

Friends in Activities,School-related Affect,and Academic Outcomes in Diverse Middle Schools

Participating in school-based activities is linked to positive academic engagement and achievement, but less is known about how peer relationships within activities affect these outcomes. The current study examined friends in extracurricular activities as a predictor of academic outcomes in multiethnic middle schools in California. Specifically, the mediating role of school belonging, and interactions by ethnicity and type of activity, were examined in a sample including African American or Black, East or Southeast Asian, White, and Latino youth in extracurricular activities (N?=?2268; M_age?=?13.36 in eighth grade; 54% female). The results of multilevel mediational models suggested that school belonging mediated the link between friends in activities and academic outcomes, and these findings replicated across groups based on ethnicity and the type of activity in which one was involved in general. These results are discussed in terms of how activities can be structured to promote positive peer relations in ways that are linked with academic engagement and achievement.     

Predictive Models of Domestic Violence and Fear of Intimate Partners Among Migrant and Seasonal Farm Worker Women

Despite a growing body of knowledge concerning family abuse, there is little research focusing on domestic violence in rural settings. Likewise, there is a paucity of research on family abuse among low-income and racial/ethnic minorities who reside in rural areas. This study examined the prevalence of domestic abuse experienced by low-income, predominantly Latina farm worker women. Using logistic regression analysis, we analyzed factors that predict victimization and the influence of those factors on women's fear of their intimate partners. Survey data were collected from 1001 adult female patients of 11 migrant farm worker health care clinics in nine states. Among the study participants, 19% had been physically or sexually abused by a husband, boyfriend, or companion. The strongest predictors of domestic abuse were drug/alcohol use by the respondent's partner, pregnancy, and migrant status. The factors that most influenced respondents' fear of their intimate partners were abuse and frequency of abuse. The article concludes by discussing implications of the study for domestic violence intervention, treatment, and research in rural settings.     

Psychotropic Medication Experiences of Incarcerated Women: A Qualitative Inquiry into Conundrums of Access and Identity

The study examines narrative data from in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 25 women in a medium security prison with the hope of deepening the knowledge base related to women’s beliefs about their mental health problems, mental health care during incarceration, and especially their experiences with psychotropic medication. The findings highlight the functional role of psychotropic medication in the lives of incarcerated women, while also emphasizing problems with limited access to prescribers, preferred medications, and other forms of mental health treatment. Trauma, substance use, and the impact of medication use on sense of self all emerged as interfacing with quality of life.     

“Strength at Home” Group Intervention for Military Populations Engaging in Intimate Partner Violence: Pilot Findings

In this brief report, we present information on the Strength at Home intervention to treat male active duty or military veteran perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) as well as preliminary pilot study findings. Strength at Home is a 12-session cognitive-behavioral group intervention developed by the authors that is based on a social information processing model of IPV perpetration. Six men referred to two intervention groups and five collateral female partners participated in this pilot study. Findings indicated large reductions for most indices of physical and psychological IPV from pre-treatment to 6-month follow-up. These initial results are promising though the small sample size and other study limitations preclude our ability to draw firm conclusions.     

The process of change in offender rehabilitation programmes

Abstract

Whilst the overall effectiveness of offender rehabilitation programmes in reducing recidivism is now well established, there has been less discussion of the reasons why rehabilitation programmes may be unsuccessful for some offenders. In this paper we suggest that models of change developed in counselling and psychotherapy may have utility in explaining how offender rehabilitation programmes bring about change, and argue that the dominance of cognitive–behavioural treatments in the rehabilitation field means that those offenders who have particularly low levels of problem awareness may be at increased risk of treatment failure. Understanding more about the mechanisms by which programmes help offenders to desist from offending is likely to lead to the development of more responsive and, ultimately, more effective programmes. Some suggestions for those involved in the delivery of offender rehabilitation programmes include: being mindful of the sequence of components of programmes, the development of preparation (or readiness) programmes and offering a broad suite of programmes to cater for different stages of problem awareness and assimilation among offenders.     

Exposure to Political Discussion in College is Associated With Higher Rates of Political Participation Over Time

While individuals who are exposed to political discussion are more politically active, analytical biases make it difficult to show evidence of causation. It is also uncertain how long the relationship between discussion and participation lasts. Here both questions are addressed with panel data collected from individuals who were randomly assigned to their college dormitories. The data show that exposure to political discussion in college leads to higher levels of participation, immediately while still in college and years into the future after graduation. As political behavior is habitual, the initial increase in participation after being exposed to political discussion is a mechanism underlying the long-run relationship between discussion and participation.