Learning from each other: causal inference and American political development

Public Choice - Within political science, a movement focused on increasing the credibility of causal inferences (CIs) has gained considerable traction in recent years. While CI has been...     

Identifying Trajectories of Adolescents’ Depressive Phenomena: An Examination of Early Risk Factors

Few studies have examined risk factors of childhood and early adolescent depressive symptomatology trajectories. This study examined self-report depressive symptomatology across a 6-year time period from 2nd to 8th grade to identify latent groups of individuals with similar patterns of depressive phenomena in a sample of 951 children (440 girls, 511 boys). Analyses, using semiparametric group modeling (SGM), identified 5 trajectory groups for girls and boys: low depressed stables, low depressed risers, mildly depressed stables, moderately depressed changers, and moderately depressed risers. Individual risk factors, with the exception of shy/withdrawn behavior, were significantly different across trajectory group membership for boys and girls, as was low-income status for boys. Boys in the low depressed and mildly depressed stable trajectory groups had significantly higher levels of antisocial behavior, attention problems, and lower social competency compared to girls in similar groups. These results suggest that universal prevention programs implemented in early elementary school that target selected risk factors may be helpful in reducing future adolescent mental health problems, specifically depressive symptomatology.     

Does Wal-Mart reduce social capital?

Social capital has attracted increasing attention in recent years. We use county-level and individual survey data to study how Wal-Mart affects social capital. Estimates using several proxies for social capital—such as club membership, religious activity, time with friends, and other measures—do not support the thesis that “Wal-Mart destroys communities” by reducing social capital. We measure exposure to Wal-Mart two ways: Wal-Marts per 10,000 residents and Wal-Marts per 10,000 residents aggregated over the years since 1979 to capture a more cumulative “Wal-Mart Effect.” We find that the coefficients on Wal-Mart’s presence are statistically insignificant in most specifications.     

Collusion in auctions for emission permits: An experimental analysis

Environmental markets have several institutional features that provide a new context for the use of auctions and that have not been studied previously. This paper reports on laboratory experiments testing three auction forms—uniform and discriminatory price sealed‐bid auctions and an ascending clock auction. We test the ability of subjects to tacitly or explicitly collude in order to maximize profits. Our main result is that the discriminatory and uniform price auctions produce greater revenues than the clock auction, both with and without explicit communication. The clock appears to facilitate successful collusion, both because of its sequential structure and because it allows bidders to focus on one dimension of cooperation (quantity) rather than two (price and quantity).© 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Israel's Counter-Terrorism Policy: How Effective?

The percentage of Israelis killed by terrorism is higher than in any other democracy. The article analyzes the threats Israel has faced, the impact terrorism has had on Israel, and the counter-terrorism policies Israel has adopted. Terrorism has had a decisive effect on Israeli elections and national security decisions, but not the economy. Israeli counter-terrorism has often been conducted without a coherent overall policy, has failed to reflect and conflicted with broader objectives, and has greatly undermined Israel's international standing. Conversely, it has enabled Israel to live in relative security and thrive, and provided its leaders with the latitude to pursue various policies, including peace, should they wish to do so.     

Free to choose,free to win,free to lose: the phenomenology of ethical space

This paper argues that, contrary to some points of view, most public administrators have sufficient discretion to act ethically; they have ‘ethical space’ within field constraints. This conclusion is arrived at by way of a theoretical perspective called phenomenology. Along the way we describe this orientation and try to show its relevance to practitioners.     

Israel and Palestine: the slow road to peace or the fast track to mutual annihilation?

This paper outlines the nature of the post World War II conflict between Israel and Palestine over land and borders. It demonstrates the weaknesses in the political systems of both countries that make it difficult to resolve outstanding differences. It examines the nature of bargaining costs, distinguishing clearly between the Coase and the Machiavelli theorem. It uses the hawk–dove game model to explain war and peace relationships between Israel and Palestine evident over the period 1948–2007. It evaluates the implications for the peace process of some future proliferation of nuclear arms that breaks Israeli nuclear hegemony in the Middle East.     

Reviews

African Historiographies: What History for Which Africa? edited by Bogumil Jewsiewicki and David Newbury SAGE Publications, Beverly Hills (California) and London, 1986. 320 pp. including figures, notes and bibliography. £33,00.

Rural‐Urban Migration: Aspects of Theory, Policy and Practice by Francois Theron and Johann F. Graaff University Publishers, Stellenbosch and Grahamstown, 1987. 64 pp. including tables, notes and bibliography. R7,50 paperback.

German Imperialism in Africa: From the Beginnings until the Second World War edited by Helmuth Stoecker C. Hurst and Co., London, 1986. 446 pp. including bibliography and index. £17,50.

Elections in Independent Africa edited by Fred M. Hayward Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), 1987. xvii plus 318 pp. including maps, tables, figures, illustrations, notes, bibliography and index. $36,50 paperback.

Africa and Israel: Relations in Perspective by Olusola Ojo Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado) and London, 1988. xiv plus 181 pp. including tables, notes and index. $23,50 paperback.

Rural Transformation in Tropical Africa edited by Douglas Rimmer Ohio University Press, Athens (Ohio), and Belhaven Press, London, 1988. viii plus 177 pp. including tables, figures, references and index. $27,95.

Ethiopia: Transition and Development in the Horn of Africa by Mulatu Wubneh and Yohannis Abate Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), and Avebury, London, 1988. xv plus 224 pp. including maps, tables, figures, illustrations, notes, appendix, select bibliography and index. $28,00.

Ethiopia: The United States and the Soviet Union, 1974–1985 by David A. Korn Croom Helm, London and Sydney, 1986. xvii plus 199 pp. including map, notes, appendices, select bibliography and index. £19,95.

Transformation and Continuity in Revolutionary Ethiopia by Christopher Clapham Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York and Sydney, 1988. xviii plus 284 pp. including map, tables, notes, bibliography and index. £30,00.

Politics and the Military in Uganda, 1890–1985 by Amii Omara‐Otunnu St. Martin's Press, New York, 1987. xx plus 218 pp. $35,00 paperback.

The Soviet Union, the Third World and Southern Africa by Jack Spence South African Institute of International Affairs, Johannesburg, 1988. vi plus 35 pp. including references. R10,00 paperback.

The Battlefronts of Southern Africa by Colin Legum Africana Publishing Co., New York and London, 1988. xxix plus 451 pp. including map, notes, appendices and indexes. $34,50 paperback.

The Politics of Development in Botswana: A Model for Success? by Louis A. Picard Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder (Colorado) and London, 1987. xiv plus 298 pp. including tables, figures, notes, select bibliography and index. $26,50.

Capitalism and Apartheid: South Africa, 1910–1986 by Merle Lipton Wildwood House, London, and David Philip, Cape Town, 1986. xi plus 473 pp. including map, tables, notes and index. $8,95 paperback.

Class, Community and Conflict: South African Perspectives edited by Belinda Bozzoli Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1987. xx plus 573 pp. including tables, illustrations, notes and index. R35,00 paperback.

Growing Up in a Divided Society: The Contexts of Childhood in South Africa edited by Sandra Burman and Pamela Reynolds Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1986. xvi plus 454 pp. including map, tables, figures, illustrations, references and index. R28,00 paperback.

South Africa under Apartheid: A Select and Annotated Bibliography by Jacqueline A. Kalley Shuter and Shooter, Pietermaritzburg, and Institute of Social and Economic Research, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, 1987. xiii plus 544 pp. including index. R39,00 paperback.