Human Trafficking in Conflict Zones: The Role of Peacekeepers in the Formation of Networks

While the effect of humanitarian intervention on the recurrence and intensity of armed conflict in a crisis zone has received significant scholarly attention, there has been comparatively less work on the negative externalities of introducing peacekeeping forces into conflict regions. This article demonstrates that large foreign forces create one such externality, namely a previously non-existent demand for human trafficking. Using Kosovo, Haiti, and Sierra Leone as case studies, we suggest that the injection of comparatively wealthy soldiers incentivizes the creation of criminal networks by illicit actors. We theorize further that the magnitude of increase in trafficking should be directly proportional to the size of the foreign force, with larger forces producing larger increases. We find that both hypotheses hold with varying levels of confidence across our three case studies. Despite the benevolent intent of peacekeeping missions, the possibility that they may contribute to human trafficking for the purpose of sexual exploitation runs counter to the spirit of such interventions. This is especially problematic given that trafficking rings, once established, may be adapted to provide weapons and narcotics, thereby planting the seed of further destabilization.     

On Lie Detection “Wizards”

M. O'Sullivan and P. Ekman (2004) claim to have discovered 29 wizards of deception detection. The present commentary offers a statistical critique of the evidence for this claim. Analyses reveal that chance can explain results that the authors attribute to wizardry. Thus, by the usual statistical logic of psychological research, O'Sullivan and Ekman's claims about wizardry are gratuitous. Even so, there may be individuals whose wizardry remains to be uncovered. Thus, the commentary outlines forms of evidence that are (and are not) capable of diagnosing lie detection wizardry.     

The Mitigating Effects of Suspicion on Post-Identification Feedback and on Retrospective Eyewitness Memory

Three studies examined procedures for reducing the post-identification feedback effect. After viewing a video event, participants were then asked to identify a suspect from a target-absent photo lineup. After making their identification, some participants were given information suggesting that their identification was correct, while others were given no information about the accuracy of their identification. Some participants who received confirming feedback were also given reasons to entertain suspicion regarding the motives of the lineup administrator, either immediately (Experiment 1) or after a one-week retention interval (Experiment 2). Suspicious perceivers failed to demonstrate the confidence inflation effects typically associated with confirming post-identification feedback. In Experiment 3, the confidence prophylactic effect was tested both immediately and after a one-week retention interval. The effect of confidence prophylactic varied with retention interval such that it eliminated the effects of post-identification feedback immediately but not after a retention interval. However, the suspicion manipulation eliminated the post-identification feedback effects at both time intervals. Both theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Postdicting arrests for proactive and reactive aggression with the PICTS Proactive and Reactive composite scales

The criminal arrest histories of 262 medium-security male inmates were correlated with the Proactive (P) and Reactive (R) composite scales of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS). As predicted, only scores on the P scale correlated significantly with prior arrests for proactive aggression (robbery, burglary) and only scores on the R scale correlated significantly with prior arrests for reactive aggression (assault, domestic violence) when age, education, race, and marital status were controlled in a series of negative binomial regression analyses. The P and R scales also predicted the total number of arrests received by participants in this sample after these same four demographic measures were controlled. The implications of these results for the construct validity of the PICTS composite scales and for matching offenders to interventions are discussed.     

Federalizing energy? Agenda change and the politics of fracking

This paper focuses on agenda change affecting the politics of ??fracking operations?? in the US, a process of extracting natural gas from underground shale formations. We examine how the movement of this policy issue between the state and federal levels of government has become increasingly contentious because of rising public concern about pollution impacts. Using information obtained from documentary sources and media content analysis, we found that the natural gas policy coalition has largely focused on a political strategy based on maintaining fracking regulatory controls at the state level, while the environmental policy coalition has pushed for increased regulation of drilling practices in general, including a larger policy and oversight role for federal agencies such as EPA.     

Lethal esophageal rupture following treatment with Sengstaken-Blakemore Tube in management of variceal bleeding: A 10-year autopsy study

The possible causal link between damage to the heart and acute pancreatitis and other pancreatic diseases has been considered in both adults and children, particularly in cases of sudden, unexpected death. However, the cardiac pathological findings so far reported in the literature are neither specific enough, nor of a kind to prove a direct pancreatic pathogenesis. We describe the occurrence of steatonecrosis developed in areas of lipomatous infiltration of the heart following acute exacerbation of latent chronic pancreatitis. The presence of mature adipocytes in the myocardium is an adequate substrate for the pancreatic lipase to give rise to the steatonecrosis, which is a well-known marker of acute pancreatitis. As far as we are aware, this is the first reported case of heart steatonecrosis in the literature.     

A study of the potential risk of gunshot residue transfer from special units of the police to arrested suspects

The presence of gunshot residues (GSRs) on arrested suspects can help the Court to form an opinion regarding the possibility of utilization of firearms by these suspects. Since the presence of a few particles can in some cases already have a strong indicative value, the GSR experts have to evaluate in their daily work the risk of a potential contamination of these suspects during their arrest. A few studies conducted on police officers and police facilities concluded that the risk of secondary transfer on arrested suspects is quite negligible. However, the case of special force units of the police should be taken into account, since these units can be assumed to be highly contaminated by GSR due to their intensive training. The aim of this study is to evaluate this possibility of particle transfer by performing simulations of arrests by special force police units, according to both low and high contamination scenarios. The results show that secondary transfers of GSR during these simulations are in most cases not negligible, even for the low contamination scenario. This is especially apparent on the vests of the target persons, with an average of 7 GSR particles (2 PbBaSb and 5 TiZn) found on the stubs used on these materials. Of course, the major contamination levels were observed in the case of the high contamination scenario, due to the use of highly contaminated gloves by the police officers during the arrests. Some recommendations are proposed to take into account this risk of contamination and to try to minimize it, or at least to better identify it.     

Objective paper structure comparison: Assessing comparison algorithms

More than just being a substrate, paper can also provide evidence for the provenance of documents. An earlier paper described a method to compare paper structure, based on the Fourier power spectra of light transmission images. Good results were obtained by using the 2D correlation of images derived from the power spectra as a similarity score, but the method was very computationally intensive. Different comparison algorithms are evaluated in this paper, using information theoretical criteria. An angular invariant algorithm turned out to be as effective as the original one but 4 orders of magnitude faster, making the use of much larger databases possible.     

Functional anonymisation: Personal data and the data environment

Anonymisation of personal data has a long history stemming from the expansion of the types of data products routinely provided by National Statistical Institutes. Variants on anonymisation have received serious criticism reinforced by much-publicised apparent failures. We argue that both the operators of such schemes and their critics have become confused by being overly focused on the properties of the data itself. We claim that, far from being able to determine whether data is anonymous (and therefore non-personal) by looking at the data alone, any anonymisation technique worthy of the name must take account of not only the data but also its environment.This paper proposes an alternative formulation called functional anonymisation that focuses on the relationship between the data and the environment within which the data exists (the data environment). We provide a formulation for describing the relationship between the data and its environment that links the legal notion of personal data with the statistical notion of disclosure control. Anonymisation, properly conceived and effectively conducted, can be a critical part of the toolkit of the privacy-respecting data controller and the wider remit of providing accurate and usable data.     

Is Gun Violence Contagious? A Spatiotemporal Test

Objectives

Existing theories of gun violence predict stable spatial concentrations and contagious diffusion of gun violence into surrounding areas. Recent empirical studies have reported confirmatory evidence of such spatiotemporal diffusion of gun violence. However, existing space/time interaction tests cannot readily distinguish spatiotemporal clustering from spatiotemporal diffusion. This leaves as an open question whether gun violence actually is contagious or merely clusters in space and time. Compounding this problem, gun violence is subject to considerable measurement error with many nonfatal shootings going unreported to police.

Methods

Using point process data from an acoustical gunshot locator system and a combination of Bayesian spatiotemporal point process modeling and classical space/time interaction tests, this paper distinguishes between clustered but non-diffusing gun violence and clustered gun violence resulting from diffusion.

Results

This paper demonstrates that contemporary urban gun violence in a metropolitan city does diffuse in space and time, but only slightly.

Conclusions

These results suggest that a disease model for the spread of gun violence in space and time may not be a good fit for most of the geographically stable and temporally stochastic process observed. And that existing space/time tests may not be adequate tests for spatiotemporal gun violence diffusion models.