Election Administration in Crisis: An Early Look at Lessons from Bush versus Gore

The 2000 presidential election exposed serious election-administration deficiencies that affected the presidential election and the confidence of the American people in the way elections are administered. The ensuing controversies also exposed significant issues in judicial—administrative relations. This article examines the factors involved not only in Florida, but also in the nation, and discusses lessons for the future of election administration and for public administration generally.     

The Supreme Court's New Constitutional Federalism: Implications for Public Administration

Since the early 1990s, the Supreme Court has been issuing decisions that, taken together, constitute a new judicial federalism. This effort is rearranging intergovernmental relations as we have known them for several decades. However, the boundaries of this new doctrine and its implications for public administration are not well understood. This article analyzes the principal constitutional bases for the Court's actions and gauges the balance of this new judicial federalism. It then sorts out the implications for public administration and projects where the Court may be going with this doctrine in the future.     

Electoral bias at the 2015 general election: reducing Labour’s electoral advantage

Electoral bias results in an asymmetrical seat distribution between parties with similar vote shares. Over recent British general elections Labour held an advantage because it efficiently converted votes into seats. Following the 2015 election result this advantage has reduced considerably, principally because Labour’s vote distribution saw it accumulate more ineffective votes, particularly where electoral support was not converted into seats. By contrast, the vote distribution of the Conservative party is now superior to that of Labour because it acquired fewer wasted votes although Labour retains a modest advantage overall because it benefits from inequalities in electorate size and differences in voter turnout. Features of the 2015 election, however, raise general methodological challenges for decomposing electoral bias. The analysis, therefore, considers the effect of substituting the Liberal Democrats as the third party with the United Kingdom Independence Party. It also examines the outcome in Scotland separately from that in England and Wales. Following this analysis it becomes clear that the method for decomposing electoral bias requires clearer guidelines for its application in specific settings.     

Shifting Boundaries between the Public and Private Sectors: Implications from the Economic Crisis

What are the differences between the public and private sectors as well as their interrelationships in light of the recent financial crisis? Has the global economic crisis fundamentally shifted the boundaries between the two sectors? This essay examines the nature and extent of the shift. The authors present an analysis of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to highlight the massive transformations that are taking place and to introduce lessons for future policy initiatives. Between financial rescue missions and the economic stimulus program, government spending accounts for a bigger share of the nation’s economy—26 percent—than at any time since World War II. The government is financing 9 out of 10 new mortgages in the United States. If you buy a car from General Motors, you are buying from a company that is 60 percent owned by the government. If you take out a car loan or run up your credit card, the chances are good that the government is financing both your debt and that of your bank. —Edmund Andrews and David Sanger, New York Times, 2009     

Socioeconomic impacts of the proposed federal gaming tax

We review the history of gaming and its taxation in the U.S., particularly in regard to the idea of “sin taxes” which were often presented as policy instruments intended to control problem gamblers. The review suggests that raising taxes neither encourages moderation nor replaces negative external costs. We follow the review with a socioeconomic impact analysis of a proposed four percent Federal Gaming Tax by simulating its impact on Clark County, Nevada for the period 1995-2004 using a large scale econometric multi-regional model. Clark County is of interest because it is where Las Vegas is located. The analysis reveals that the proposed tax would lead to a measurable decline in Clark County's jobs, population, disposable income, and total industrial during the forecast period. By 2004, total industrial output would be 1.3 percent lower under the proposed tax and Clark County would experience a loss of $1.39 in real disposable income for every gaming tax dollar collected by Federal Government. These reductions, coupled particularly with the loss of thousands of jobs in Las Vegas area hotels/casinos predicted by the analysis suggest that increased demands on social services in Clark County would result. These findings, together with the lack of evidence that raising taxes would promote moderation or reduce external negative costs, lead us to argue that excise taxes represent an unattractive option.     

The color of child mortality in Brazil, 1950-2000: social progress and persistent racial inequality

Now that racism has been officially recognized in Brazil, and some universities have adopted affirmative-action admission policies, measures of the magnitude of racial inequality and analyses that identify the factors associated with changes in racial disparities over time assume particular relevance to the conduct of public debate. This study uses census data from 1950 to 2000 to estimate the probability of death in the early years of life, a robust indicator of the standard of living among the white and Afro-Brazilian populations. Associated estimates of the average number of years of life expectancy at birth show that the 6.6-year advantage that the white population enjoyed in the 1950s remained virtually unchanged throughout the second half of the twentieth century, despite the significant improvements that accrued to both racial groups. The application of multivariate techniques to samples selected from the 1960, 1980, and 2000 census enumerations further shows that, controlling for key determinants of child survival, the white mortality advantage persisted and even increased somewhat in 2000. The article discusses evidence of continued racial inequality during an era of deep transformation in social structure, with reference to the challenges of skin color classification in a multiracial society and the evolution of debates about color, class, and discrimination in Brazil.     

Extending the Confusion About Bayes

In R v T [2010] EWCA Crim 2439, [2011] 1 Cr App Rep 85, the Court of Appeal indicated that ‘mathematical formulae’, such as likelihood ratios, should not be used by forensic scientists to analyse data where firm statistical evidence did not exist. Unfortunately, when considering the forensic scientist's evidence, the judgment consistently commits a basic logical error, the ‘transposition of the conditional’ which indicates that the Bayesian argument has not been understood and extends the confusion surrounding it. The judgment also fails to distinguish between the validity of the relationships in a formula and the precision of the data. We explain why the Bayesian method is the correct logical method for analysing forensic scientific evidence, how it works and why ‘mathematical formulae’ can be useful even where firm statistical data is lacking.     

Implementation and Optimization of the Sodium‐Rhodizonate Method for Chemographic Shooting Distance Estimation

In shooting incident investigations where it is important to estimate the shooting distance, the sodium‐rhodizonate coloring method has been used for the visualization of GSR patterns extensively. This publication describes the optimization of this method by the use of a heated press for the transfer of GSR traces on garments, as well as variation of a number of other important process parameters. Our final aim for this project was to prepare a formal validation of the coloring method as prerequisite for its inclusion into the scope of ISO17025‐certified methods in the GSR Laboratory. A number of important factors and process parameters were identified, such as buffer composition and pH, type of textile used as a substrate and resolution of the documentation of the results. Results were tested using a synthetic proficiency test. Our optimized method has been found to be a very effective technique for visualization of macroscopic GSR traces.