Randomized experiments by government institutions and American political development

Public Choice - Are the methods of causal inference and, in particular, randomized controlled trials, compatible with the study of political history? While many important questions regarding...     

Patrons against clients: Electoral uncertainty and bureaucratic tenure in politicized states

Why would incumbents undertake institutional reforms that constrain their discretion over state resources? Many studies point to electoral competition in response. They argue that incumbents who risk exit from office undertake reform to insure themselves against potentially hostile successors. This paper challenges this line of reasoning, arguing that it confounds two potential implications of electoral competition – potential and certain electoral losses – which yield contrary reform incentives. Certain exits from office may well incentivize reforms as insurance. Where elections are contested, however, incumbents face incentives to resist reforms that constrain discretion over state resources that provide incumbents with electoral advantage. This argument is developed and assessed with an institutional reform the literature has so far neglected: job stability protections (tenure) in politicized bureaucracies. A case analysis of the Dominican Republic and suggestive cross‐country data confirm theoretical predictions: electoral uncertainty dis‐incentivizes tenure reform. Electoral competition may thus be a double‐edged sword for institutional reform.     

Interdependenz und ideologische position: Die konditionale Diffusion der Zigarettenbesteuerung in den US-amerikanischen Bundesstaaten 1971–2006

This paper inquires into the interdependence of cigarette taxation in the US states between 1971 and 2006. It is argued that diffusion influences emanating from the tax policies of other states have an effect that is conditional upon the government ideology in a focal state. Specifically, it is shown that only those state governments that are not positioned on the far right end of an ideology continuum use an environment of high cigarette taxes to pursue their fiscal and health policy goals. At the same time, interventionist ideology can only be effective if it operates within a favorable policy environment. I argue that casting policy diffusion as conditional allows for empirically more accurate and theoretically richer models.     

Multi-party competition: A computational model with abstention and memory

This paper analyses the properties of a computational model of multi-party competition in two policy dimensions. We find that, firstly, centrifugal incentives prevent rational parties from moving to the mean of voters' preference distributions. Secondly, the number of parties competing for votes and the inclination to abstain from voting are positively related to parties' optimum distance to the political centre. Thirdly, the number of parties in the political arena also increases both the distance between parties' location in the policy space and the volatility of their platforms. Finally, the more voters rely on past observations of partisan positioning behaviour in order to assess the credibility of parties, the more the distance between partisan platforms increases. At the same time, platform volatility declines.     

Evidentiary Standards for Forensic Anthropology*

Abstract: As issues of professional standards and error rates continue to be addressed in the courts, forensic anthropologists should be proactive by developing and adhering to professional standards of best practice. There has been recent increased awareness and interest in critically assessing some of the techniques used by forensic anthropologists, but issues such as validation, error rates, and professional standards have seldom been addressed. Here we explore the legal impetus for this trend and identify areas where we can improve regarding these issues. We also discuss the recent formation of a Scientific Working Group for Forensic Anthropology (SWGANTH), which was created with the purposes of encouraging discourse among anthropologists and developing and disseminating consensus guidelines for the practice of forensic anthropology. We believe it is possible and advisable for anthropologists to seek and espouse research and methodological techniques that meet higher standards to ensure quality and consistency in our field.     

The prevalence of mental disorders in a German sample of male incarcerated juvenile offenders

The current study investigated the prevalence of mental disorders among incarcerated juvenile offenders in Germany and sought to identify clinically relevant subgroups. In sum, 149 newly incarcerated male juvenile delinquents (M age = 19 years) were included. Diagnostic tools included the German version of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV and the Psychopathy Checklist-Screening Version. The most prevalent diagnoses in the sample included conduct disorders (81%), Cluster B personality disorders (up to 62%), and substance-related disorders (up to 60%). Moreover, psychopathic features were found among 21% of the participants. Cluster analysis distinguished three subgroups among this group of young offenders. The most problematic consisted of juveniles with multiple psychopathology, including antisocial traits, personality pathology, higher scores on the Psychopathy Checklist, as well as multiple substance abuse. Study outcomes are discussed in light of their implications for the development of effective treatment for juvenile offenders.     

Kriminalpolitische Initiative: Mehr Sicherheit durch weniger Haft! – Vorschläge Nr 4 (7. Juni 2009)

Die Vorschläge der "Kriminalpolitischen Initiative" (KI) zum Haftentlastungspaket haben einige Ergebnisse gebracht (vgl StRÄG 2008 BGBl I 2007/109).1) Daneben gibt es bestimmte Fragen, die noch nicht in Angriff genommen wurden. Die KI greift daher zwei ihr wichtig erscheinende Probleme heraus, die einerseits am unteren, andererseits am oberen Ende der Intensitätsskala strafrechtlichen Freiheitsentzuges liegen, und macht dazu die folgenden Vorschläge.