Analytic Outreach for Intelligence: Insights from a Workshop on Emerging Biotechnology Threats

This article describes a new effort to engage in analytic outreach between academic scholars and intelligence analysts on the issue of emerging biotechnology threats to US national security. The context of this outreach was a September 2012 meeting in London to explore possibilities for enhanced analytic outreach in relation to emerging biotechnology threats, supported by the UK Genomics Policy and Research Forum. This meeting consisted of a mix of current and former intelligence practitioners and policy officials, and social science and scientific experts, from both the UK and the US. As will be described below, this unique pairing of experts and subjects revealed new insights into how to improve intelligence assessments on biotechnology and bioweapons threats. It also revealed continuing challenges in reforming assessments within existing intelligence work routines.     

Who Are Pakistan's Militants and Their Families?

This article presents results of a survey of 141 Pakistani families of slain militants. This survey collected data about the militants and their households. While derived from a convenience sample, these data are unprecedented and offer a glimpse into the backgrounds of militants and the families who (mostly) supported their decision to join the jihad. Most militants served and died in Kashmir and seem to be “high quality” militants in that they, like their heads of household, are well educated and not predominantly coming from seminaries, as is often claimed. This analysis suggests that while the militants merit attention, so do the families that produce militants.     

Empowerment or Encumbrance? Exercising the STV Option for Local Authority Elections in New Zealand

The introduction of proportional representation into New Zealand parliamentary elections in 1996 increased the momentum for introducing proportional representation into local elections. Legislation passed in 2001 provides local choice regarding the electoral system for triennial local authority elections from 2004. In this article we review the way local authorities responded to the opportunity to choose between the current first-past-the-post (FPP) system and single transferable voting (STV). We examine the communication and consultation carried out by local authorities and discuss the degree to which the exercise of the STV option reflects the principles of the Act and contributes to the goal of empowering communities.     

Learning to Think the Unthinkable: Lessons from India’s Nuclear Tests

This article examines the impact that national economic policies adopted during Indira Gandhi's final term in office (1980–84) had on four “national” social groups, namely the big industrialists, the middle class, the rich peasantry, and the poor. The study argues that the Congress (I) chose the former two as its major allies, while the rich peasantry and the poor were relegated to a secondary position. In the process, the focus of India's strategy of development shifted from the agrarian to the industrial sector, and from the rural to the urban world.     

Why preferences and institutions change: A systematic process analysis of credit rating in Germany

This article argues that a within‐case analysis of the causes and patterns of the institutionalisation of rating in the German financial system offers fresh insights into change in the major socioeconomic institutions of advanced capitalism. Using the method of systematic process analysis, the article explores the expansion of credit rating in the German banking system from three perspectives: historical (power), sociological (diffusion) and behavioural institutionalism (prospect theory). It demonstrates that the proliferation of credit rating resulted from a change of preference on the part of large banks. With Germany as a least likely case for successfully implementing rating, the study's main lesson is that institutional analysis may benefit from incorporating behavioural institutionalism into the analysis of preference change because this cites economic motivations as causes of preference shifts and institutional changes.     

Exploring gender issues in the development from conduct disorder in adolescence to criminal behaviour in adulthood

Using results from a large Norwegian follow-up study of former adolescent psychiatric in-patients we have traced the progression from mental disorders requiring hospitalisation in adolescence to registered criminal behaviour in adulthood, particularly highlighting gender differences. A nationwide representative sample of 1095 adolescent psychiatric inpatients (46% females) was followed up 15–33 years after admission to the National Centre for Child and Adolescent Psychiatry in Oslo, Norway. In adolescence 45% fulfilled the DSM-IV criteria for a disruptive behaviour disorder. At follow-up, 63% of the males and 39% of the females had a criminal record. Among females, psychoactive substance use disorder in adolescence seemed to be a sine qua non for later registered criminality, with intravenous drug use a potent risk factor for life-course-persistent criminality. The same strong association between drug use and criminality was not found in males. Factor analysis demonstrated that while the DSM-IV Conduct Disorder criteria structure was similar across genders, the prevalence of the various forms of expression was different in males and females. The differences between individuals with violent and non-violent crimes were more substantial in males than in females. There were marked gender differences in the criminal profiles observed, with the females' criminal career developing in a less serious manner than in males: females had later criminal debut, a lower number of acts on record, less diverse criminal behaviour, and an escalation in the severity of offences over time was less frequently encountered. However, secular trend analyses indicated that gender differences had diminished over the last several decades, with females “catching up” with their male counterparts. Overall, the results demonstrated important qualitative and quantitative gender differences in the criminal behaviour of former adolescent psychiatric in-patients. The results may be of use in prevention.