Predictions of Future Dangerousness in Capital Murder Trials: Is It Time to “Disinvent the Wheel?”

Although recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions regarding the death penalty (e.g., Atkins v. Virginia, 2002) have renewed interest in mental health issues, one topic that has not received much attention recently is the ongoing use of expert testimony to support claims that defendants represent a continuing threat to society. In this article, we (a) review prior research relevant to determining the accuracy of clinical predictions that capital defendants will commit future acts of criminal violence; (b) summarize new data from current and former death row inmates in Texas that bolster the claim that such predictions are gross overestimates of risk; and (c) review extant research addressing the potential utility of various risk assessment instruments that increasingly are being used to reinforce clinical predictions in capital trials. Despite significant recent advances in the field of risk assessment, clinical assertions that a defendant is likely to commit future violent acts appear to be highly inaccurate and ethically questionable at best. Moreover, available research offers little support for the claim that the accuracy of these predictions will be appreciably improved by relying on more structured risk assessment measures that have some demonstrated predictive validity in other contexts.Portions of this article were written while the first author was a member of the Department of Psychology at Sam Houston State University. The prison inmate data reported in this study also are described in a report by the Texas Defender Service, available at:     

Paternity analysis in deficiency cases with related putative fathers: simulation of a deficiency analysis in 27 families

During the last few years, the number of privately ordered paternity investigations has increased considerably. Probably due to financial reasons in more and more cases only the putative father and the child are investigated. Additionally, very often only one method, such as STR analysis, is employed. This raises the question whether such a reduced analysis leads to reliable and clear results when investigating cases with related putative fathers. We investigated 165 individuals from 27 families using the AmpFlSTRIdentifiler multiplex PCR and calculated the paternity probabilities of the children to their biological fathers, uncles, grand fathers and other relatives. In more than 30% less than three exclusions between child and relative were detected. In five cases no exclusions were found between child and uncle, always leading to paternity probabilities >99.9%. These results show that the calculation of high probabilities (>99.9%) does not necessarily lead to the accurate conclusion of fatherhood. In many of our cases misleadingly the brother of the real father or another close relative would have been declared to be the biological father.     

Cracked Ceilings, Firmer Floors, and Weakening Walls: Trends and Patterns in Gender Representation among Executives Leading American State Agencies, 1970–2000

Trends of female access to and presence in responsible governmental positions have gained substantial attention. The research reported here assesses and seeks convergence on several issues associated with gender representation. It extends the research by focusing on top executive posts in American state governments. In particular, the presence of women agency heads in all 50 states is examined from 1970 through 2000 using the lenses of passive representativeness and active representation. The authors find, first, that women face fewer blockages in securing top posts—the glass ceilings are cracking. Second, women's access to peak executive positions springs from more solid educational, career, and organizational foundations or "floors." Third, lateral career movements are penetrating the "walls" surrounding traditionally male-dominated agency types. The essay concludes with a framework for understanding relationships involving passive representativeness, active representation, and representative results. That framework assists in shifting attention toward the consequences of both passive and active representation.     

Sequenzorientierte Policy-Analyse

Due to the structural characteristics of the German system of government, political scientists often assume that policy-making will be affected by gridlock. Assuming exogenous preferences and stable institutional settings, they tend analytically toward interaction studies based on rational choice. As such studies analyze political decisions isolated from changes in social problems, preferences and institutional settings, their explanatory power focuses on incremental policy change. I suggest viewing political decision-making as a dynamic process. To do this, I examine the innovative pension reform initiated by the former Federal Minister of Labor, Walter Riester, looking at the feedback effects of policies on political action. On the theoretical level, this use of temporality is based on the assumption that policies need to have social integrative effects. My main hypothesis is that sequenceoriented analysis in policy studies would enable us to identify endogenous causes of innovative policy change.     

The ‘New Right' Vote: An Analysis of the Gender Gap in the Vote Choice for the SVP

Studying the Swiss national elections 2003, we find a pronounced gender gap in the SVP vote ‐ women are significantly less likely to vote for this party than are men. In order to explain this gender gap, this article combines two innovative approaches. On the one hand, it links the literature on gender gaps with research on the New Right. On the other, it makes a distinction between the conditional and compositional effects of explanatory factors. Our analysis reveals that conditional effects are of greater relevance than compositional ones. Explanatory factors regularly applied in research on the New Right have a conditional effect inasmuch as they only have an effect on male voters, but cannot explain the behaviour of women. This, in turn, also highlights the importance of a gender‐specific focus for further research.     

Laser microdissection separation of pure spermatozoa from epithelial cells for short tandem repeat analysis

Short tandem repeat (STR) analysis is a valuable tool in identifying the source of biological stains, particularly from the investigation of sexual assault crimes. Difficulties in analysis arise primarily in the interpretation of mixed genotypes when cell separation of the sexual assailant's sperm from the victim's cells is incomplete. The forensic community continues to seek improvements in cell separation methods from mixtures for DNA typing. The feasibility of applying laser microdissection (LMD) technology to precisely separate sexual assault cell mixtures by visual inspection coupled with laser dissection was assessed through three experiments. First, various histological stains were evaluated for use with LMD and DNA analysis. Second, different DNA isolation methods were evaluated on LMD-collected cells. Finally, STR analysis was performed on LMD-separated sperm cells from mixtures of semen and female buccal epithelial cells. The results indicated (a) hematoxylin/eosin staining performed best in its ability to differentiate sperm and epithelial cells while exhibiting the least negative effect on further downstream analysis; (b) both QIAamp and Lyse-N-Go methods were useful for recovery of DNA from LMD-collected sperm cells; and (c) LMD separation provided clear STR profiles of the male donor with the absence of any additional alleles from the female donor. This report describes an efficient, low-manipulation LMD method for the efficient separation of spermatozoa from two-donor sperm/epithelial cell mixtures.     

Priming Presidential Approval: The Conditionality of Issue Effects

Variations in the effectiveness of media priming are traditionally attributed to individual differences in political sophistication and news exposure. We contribute to this literature by considering the degree to which the content of an issue prime drives its use in presidential approval. Using a macro level approach, we combine public opinion data on presidential approval from 1981 to 2000 with content analyses of presidential news coverage to see how media attention affects the way issues are weighted in presidential approval. We find that the effectiveness of issue primes depends on issue content, such that familiar and understandable issues are more likely to be primed than more complex and difficult issues.