Swings and gerrymanders

It is usual for electoral analysts to calculate the swing necessary at the next election to unseat a government, assuming that the swing is a uniform one. However, swings are not uniform. The non-uniform swing which would, on average, unseat a government is shown to be different from the uniform swing. For example, at the next Australian election for the House of Representatives, a uniform swing of 1.5 per cent against the current government would cause it to lose five seats, leaving it in a minority of 73 out of 148 seats, but a non-uniform swing of only 0.8 per cent would, on average, have the same effect. Implications of this variability for the size of the majority, the possibilities of a Parliament with an even number of seats being equally-divided, and the use of this analysis to detect gerrymandering and to correct for it, are considered.     

After the cold war

He is co-editor (with Kenneth W. Thompson) of Truth and Tragedy: A Festschrift for Hans J. Morgenthau,and editor of The Political Morality of the IMF.He is currently writing a book on Understanding Ethics.     

Problems of co-ordination in upazila administration in Bangladesh

The present government of Bangladesh has extensively reformed the administrative system and upgraded the previous thana to upazila (sub-district) to serve as the focal point of development administration. A new tier of local government called Upazila Parishad (UZP) has been created and a large number of functions have been devolved to this institution along with the placement of central government employees at its disposal. The reformers argue that the present system will remove the inadequacies of the previous administrative system and will bring about an improvement in the co-ordination of field services at the upazila level. However, the actual situation represents a totally different picture. The desired integration— both vertical and horizontal—and co-ordination in local level planning is non-existent due to the absence of any clear direction from the central government. Proper co-ordination among the field services in the upazila administration does not exist due to the anomalous relation between the upazila and the national government, including excessive central control; the involvement of multiple agencies of the central government in guiding and supervising; ambiguity in government thinking; the absence of clarification from the ministries concerned and agencies on the timing of different development programmes; and conflict over the allocation of resources. There is also conflict between the different tiers of local government in respect of authority and resources. Relations between public representatives and officials at the upazila level are strained because a clear allocation of authority to political executives is lacking; areas for co-operation among different agencies have not been clarified; and public representatives and government officials lack mutual respect.     

Political fragmentation of the Dutch Windward Islands

The Dutch Windward Islands are examined to see if they throw any light on the problems experienced when very small island communities try to come together to form a larger political unit. The Constitution of 1954, though federal in intent, was unitary in practice, with the main island, Curacao treating the others like municipalities. However the island authorities are capable of asserting themselves against the centre. They control implementation, raise revenue and receive local political support. Because of the small size of the populations and civil services involved, island and federal officials collaborate harmoniously. Leading individuals are important for development, notably St Maarten's Claude Wathey. New initiatives also require effective negotiations to deal with off-shore tourist organizations. However, there is little significant industry beyond tourism. In 1988 the three Dutch Windward Islands agreed to co-operate with each other. Decentralization within the largest island could help this cooperation as could a regional association along the lines of the South Pacific Forum.     

Virginia's Revenue Forecasting Process and Models

In Virginia, major differences between revenue forecasts and actual revenue collections raised questions from legislators about the adequacy of the state's econometric forecasting models and the forecasting process itself. Consequently, Virginia's process and models were examined by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC), a legislative watchdog agency. The review found most of the differences could be attributed to declining economic factors and not poor forecasting. However, a surprisingly large component of the forecast was based on undocumented judgmental inputs that required greater oversight. Other states in similar circumstances may wish to evaluate their own forecasting process and econometric models using the JLARC approach.     

Tax Expenditure Reporting: The Utilization of an Innovation

Central to this article is the question, “Are tax expenditure reports used?” State legislators serving on tax committees in ten states were surveyed regarding their use and their perceptions of others' use of tax expenditure report information. Responses indicate (1) strong acceptance and broad use of report information; (2) purposes and policy stages of use characteristic of technical information use; and (3) use focused predominantly on resource acquisition (revenue) policy rather than resource allocation (budget) policy. Thus it appears that tax expenditure reporting does not operate to secure budgetary control over tax expenditures, and consequently tax expenditures continue largely to escape budget scrutiny.     

The Employment Potential of Refugee Entrepreneurship: Soviet Jews and Vietnamese in California

Research concerning immigrant and ethnic business formation has focused almost exclusively upon the enterprises of economically motivated immigrants and long established refugees. Ignored are the businesses opened by recent refugees who, since 1975, account for 20% of the legal entrants to the United States. Because refugees have different social and demographic characteristics than economic immigrants and come to the U.S. for different reasons, they reveal distinct entrepreneurial behaviors. Relying on a sample of 67 Soviet Jewish and Vietnamese enterprises in California, this study explores the prospects for refugee self-employment. It considers the characteristics of self-employed refugees, their resources and motives for openingbusinesses, and their use of community-based sources of capital, labor, customers and information.     

Factors influencing state progress in the implementation of Public Law 99-457, Part H

Policy implementation has been an infrequently studied process although it has become increasingly evident that the implementation processes of policy development, policy approval, and policy application can shape and delay prospective implementation of legislation. The current study analyzes the implementation of P.L. 99–457 (Part H) the Education for the Handicapped Amendments of 1986. This law provides the states with planning money from the federal government to design a comprehensive interagency, multidisciplinary program of services for children with handicapping conditions and their families. Ratings were taken from key administrators and citizens knowledgeable about the law on state progress in implementing the fourteen requirements of the law and also on proposed influential conditions that might affect that implementation. Additional demographic information was obtained for the fifty states. The factor that seemed to be most influential in a subset of 35 states was the prior presence in the state of systems for interagency planning and development. Neither prior history of early childhood services, available resources, wealth of the state, or geographic region appeared to have a significant influence on policy development. There was some indication that different factors might become influential in the next phase of implementation, policy approval. It appears that progress in state policy development may be linked to the special requirements of the legislation itself and to prior availability of institutional structures that make mandated collaborative efforts more possible.